River Decision

[fyodor]

Only my 4th hand with this Big Blind so absolutely no read. With the big flush draw myself I doubted he was on one as well.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls.

Turn: (8 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

River: (15 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero?

I have been trying to value bet the river more. Is this a value raise?

[Jeff W]

His play screams weaker two pair. I think that most players are very unlikely to play a set this way and you beat every non-set hand.

I raise and call a 3-bet.

[RunDownHouse]

Agree exactly with Jeff. I love being able to trap the whole field on the flop, as well.

[fyodor]

And I agree as well. Unfortunately I was involved in hands at all 4 tables simultaneously, set crossed my mind and without further thought I just called. He flipped over K5 and I was short one BB on the night.

Betting top pair with such a weak kicker so strong when someone else has shown a lot of strength is a sure sign of a real fish. Either that or someone who knows you well and thinks you are capable of a big laydown. But when it's someone you don't know it's generally a fish.

I have played well over 100,000 hands of 5/10 so if someone new creeps into my database it is likely either a new player (read fish) or a good player who has changed his handle (it happens but obviously a lot less common than a new player being a new player)

I think with this many hand histories (plus some datamining) in my database, when a new player comes along I should be treating them like fish until proven otherwise.