Tournament gurus: your thoughts on this hand

[profitman]

What do u think of my play? SB has been playing very loose and betting at everything, so I decide to raise his bet on the flop, but then MP2 reraises all in. If I put MP2 on something like Q-J, do I make this call??? I still don't know what to do in these types of situations. With the blinds only 50/100, I would still have plenty of chips. Do i have pot odds to call?


Ultimate bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (10 handed)

MP3 (t995)
CO (t750)
Button (t2400)
SB (t6995)
Hero (t5415)
UTG (t1900)
UTG+1 (t1000)
UTG+2 (t4470)
MP1 (t1100)
MP2 (t1830)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t42.50) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t100</font>, Hero raises to t500, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises all in t1730, SB folds, Hero folds.

No showdown. MP2 wins t1500. </font>

[22suited]

fold... he probably has at least a queen which would give you a 25% chance to win. If he has j10 and is pushing his straight draw you are still barely ahead in a coinflip situation. Gotta wait for a better spot.

[SossMan]

I don't like the flop overbet. It puts you in a sticky spot on the turn if he calls the flop and checks to you. If you want to raise, 250 or 300 should be just fine to chase out hands that you don't want in there.

Personally, I would fold to his overbet.

[jslag]

[ QUOTE ]
With the blinds only 50/100, I would still have plenty of chips. Do i have pot odds to call?
</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe he has at least a pair of Queens, then it would be incorrect to call here. There aren't any flush draws, so if he's making this move with JT, then it's a strong move and I don't think you need to play sheriff here.

The pot odds are only offering you about 2.2-to-1 on your call. If he has a pair of Queens, then you are 3-to-1 underdog. Fold.

[profitman]

Thanks for the responses. If I believe he has a pair of queens and he only has T1000 and pushes, do I make the call now? Only 500 more to call. Thanks.

[DougShrapnel]

The 500 bet is good, it's a pot sized bet that should tell you exactly where you are. When MP comes over the top he has more than QJ. What makes you think QJ. QJ is not exactly a hand where people go over the top of a bet and a raise. Even if SB is betting light.

An extra 1230 is way to much for you to be thinking about calling. Since the extra chips you gain if you suck out are worth so much less than the ones you'd cough if when you don't. I would consider calling at about 400 and 1/8th of my stack or less.

[jslag]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the responses. If I believe he has a pair of queens and he only has T1000 and pushes, do I make the call now? Only 500 more to call. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would depend on your read, but I would still lean towards folding. You shouldn't solely put your opponent on a single hand. You need to consider the range of hands he/she may have.

But if you only needed to call 500 more, it would be much closer to a call. However, you have to consider that he may have a set or two pair here. Although, I don't know why he would play a set this way with that sort of flop texture.

You'd be getting 4-to-1 (pot is 2000 with his push of 1000, it's 500 more, 2000-to-500 = 4-to-1) on your call if it was only 500 more. You have a decent stack size, but I think a call here is fairly marginal. It's very unlikely your pair of nines are good. You only have about 5 outs and a backdoor flush draw, but it's possible some or all of those outs are counterfeited (e.g. he has AQ or a set).

You also have to think about how strong the SB is. He could have a hand and was feigning weakness with his 100 chip bet. It would be a disaster if you called, and the SB woke up with a monster.

Anyhow, in the situation you described I believe this is a fold. You made a raise with middle pair, top kicker, and your opponent's re-raise (after a lead bet and a raise) is a clear indicator that you are beat.