Doubts (long)

Hi all

Since my latest cashout I've been going thru hell (50 hours, two tables) at PP. Fish hits gutshot straigths with an eeire consistensy against me.

As I sat there getting beat up by people with very little understanding of the game I started doubting... I've always laughed at the ones that that claim PP cheat, but now they actually had me doubting. I fit the pattern of the guy who gets punished for big cashouts, so I tried to come up with new arguments against PP cheating us this way. Here it is:


Why would PP wait until winners cash out before pulling the 'bad luck' lever? If they instead noted who the winners were and gave them bad luck when they reached a certain amount of money they'd be more likely to get 'their' money back.


If they pulled the lever, wouldn't they just give you a tiny disadvantage, so it would be hard to detect? The bad beats I've experienced are so bad that even if i was at a tiny disadvantage, bad luck would still be the main reason. I mean if it's the main reason why not the only reason?


I'm still convinced PP is fair, but I would like to here from other winners (I'm still ahead 1.5BB/Hour/table) how you experience your bad streaks.

I'm getting really good cards and flopping lots of tripps and two pair, but they virtually never holds up, even when I'm heads up. Is it the same for you? I've been losing well over 100BB, what's your biggest slump?


I´ll appreciate all the input I can get.

Thanks guys.

I went 6 months last year without cashing a check from paradise.Then had a windfall.I have a real tough time telling how many big bets I was stuck because I was continually jumping from game to game and limit to limit looking for the best available.But I know I was down $12000.If it wasn't for other sites I would have starved.Needless to say I finally got tired blaming bad luck and I really tried to look at my game and so I finally started learning how to play shorthanded and I got all my money back and a whole lot more.Six months is a long time and the best feeling of all was finally getting my wife off my back.My advice -have faith if you have game if not get game or quit.

My biggest downswing is about 225 BB. So you've got a little way to go yet.


Chris

If you're pulling in 1.5BB an hour a table, perhaps you were just running good for a while.


The swings are well known to be huge online, double so for playing two tables. I've had losing streaks of several months in live action, so I'm sure yours is nothing more than a little "regression towards the mean". Ie, the percentages are finally catching up to you. Not that I'm saying you can't beat the game, but 3 BB an hour is strong. Perhaps your win rate was in part due to an above average miss rate for your opponents and now it's evening out.

50 hours? You must be knew to the game. I've been in a rut for 11 weeks at 380 hours. I've wobbled around in the -150 to -200 range for weeks, finally to come out of it to near even before crashing. My recent bout the last 3 days for 25 hours was down 150 BBs. I now stand at the lowest point ever in my poker career, down 270 BBs at 5-10 tables on PP.


When people complain about bad beats over 50 hours, one thing goes through my mind, "You ain't seen nothing yet". 50 hours is little pinprick. Wait until you break a finger, or a leg, but hopefully never your neck.


Still, when I read your post, it hit a sympathetic nerve. I had a whaling 2nd half of 2001 on PP and drew a lot of money off the table. My winrate was high to me (at 2.3 bbs an hour). I knew that it couldn't last. But the downswing started on Dec. 3rd and just wouldn't quit. I even posted my own frustration with this experience a couple of weeks ago here on the forum.


It got to a point in the last couple of days where I too started doubting PP. Could this company after all my arguments against the conspiracy theorists, really be above board?


Finally, I decided to run the equivalent of a 2-year playing simulation using TTH. I programmed for 140,000 hands which is about the number of hands I would play on PP over two years. I lined up players (one player I tend to emulate along with an assortment of other players who resemble typical 5-10 players on PP). I ran about 3 dozen simulations and discovered that there was an abundance of long downswings. Some 2 year runs showed huged profits against the same lineup. Upwards of $36,000 as the highest. Other simulations were low at around $4,000 against the same lineup.


What these simulations show is that because there is such a huge number of possible card combinations, there will be long LONG stretches of bad runs. It was comforting to see that evidence on paper. Looking at the win/loss charts was a big boost to my committment to push through.


Bad streaks are part of the territory. Some players will experience more than others. Its just the way their cards fall in their lifetime. The strategy that is developed to play poker well is based on the long LONG term. 50 hours is a blink of an eye in poker life.


On one last note... I play a lot of PP at different locations in my home and at work. I've noticed recently that ads keep appearing when I sign on to PP at their lobby saying "A lot of player continually put their trust..."


My thinking is that like any company who depends on satisfied customers for their business, poker is difficult on the business end. Cards can run bad for individuals, but they can also run bad for groups of individuals. If PP's regular customer base of proven winners who play everyday begin to run bad collectively for an extended period, I'm sure PP's staff feel the heat through emails. It is at these times that (like any good business) they need to establish a sense of calm in their customer base. Thus, I believe, their frontpage announcment.


For what its worth...