This a good spot to bluff? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : This a good spot to bluff?

tbach24

01-11-2005, 10:30 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($19.15)
UTG+2 ($34.55)
MP1 ($33.88)
MP2 ($61.42)
MP3 ($25)
CO ($24)
Button ($14.5)
SB ($67.2)
Hero ($24.8)
UTG ($32.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.5. SB posts a blind of $0.25. UTG posts a blind of $0.75.
UTG (poster) checks, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 (poster) checks, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3.75) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (7 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2, UTG calls $2, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds.

I was thinking that if I hit, I'd get paid off big-time because of his giant stack.

Turn: ($9.75) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4, SB folds.

My thinking: King is probably a scare card for the SB so I was thinking to eliminate at least him, if not the other guy.

River: ($17.75) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero...?

Final Pot: $23.75

I think he missed the same draw that I did. If I should bluff, how much? Or should I check/fold?

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!

01-11-2005, 10:33 PM

Check fold. At this level you should minimize your bluffing, esp in larger pots. They will simply call you too much. Bluff the HU/3 way small pots and do it on the flop.

tbach24

01-11-2005, 10:34 PM

I have no reads on the players and they probably don't have any on me..25th hand of the session and don't recognize any of the players.

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!

01-11-2005, 10:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have no reads on the players and they probably don't have any on me..25th hand of the session and don't recognize any of the players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its rare that players at this level ever have a read on you.

fimbulwinter

01-11-2005, 11:08 PM

yes, i would bluff here. there are two valid draws that look very feasible for him to have (43 and /images/graemlins/heart.gif/images/graemlins/heart.gif) and niether got there. most importantly, this guy has shown behavior characteristic of 1. a draw or 2. a monster. If he has 55, then he'll push/raise a bluff and obviously you fold, no chance of getting hurt. On this river with this hand, you should only bet when you have a good holding or nothing; a mediocre one will be -EV to bet. remember that, even if he raised you here and you folded, most often he won't have anything here; bad hands are much more common than good ones.

you made a semibluff on the turn, which is ok, and he probably took what he saw as good odds to draw against your "king" to see if he can flush/straighten up. we probably don't need to worry about him being too good to not draw to a straight on a twoflush/paired board etc.

that all said, i'd like a bet of 1/3 the pot. at this level, a nopair will fold and they won't let go of a 5 or 2 unless you push, which is obviously too much. the 1/3 pot bet will succed against this guy i'd say 60% of the time. given that it needs to succeed only 1/4 to be 0EV, I like a river bluff here a lot.

fim

ps- think about what really probably happened in this hand- you may have made a great move on the turn by semibluffing as i'd guess that SB had you beat with something like 33 or 54. UTG looks like a draw/monster the whole way, so if SB is still in it, I'd no try a bluff; given that you folded him out, pat yourself on the back and enjoy your EV.

amoeba

01-11-2005, 11:21 PM

I don't like the flop call with the board paired already.

AncientPC

01-12-2005, 02:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop call with the board paired already.

[/ QUOTE ]

Action doesn't smell like a boat or even trips unless UTG liked to play really passive.

I'd probably throw out a bigger bet on the turn and check / fold after missing the river. If they call the turn bet they're either ahead of you or getting improper odds to draw. Either way if they call and you miss it's auto-check / fold.

I could see a bluff thrown out on the river as a possibility as well. However I don't like stone cold bluffs in general, especially when there's no scare card to bluff.

Xyeej

01-13-2005, 10:04 PM

i push the river here. im a lag.

TheWorstPlayer

01-14-2005, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop call with the board paired already.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't agree more. Hero is drawing to the non-nut flush with a paired board. Doesn't sound like a great idea to me. And how would he get paid off even if it hits? Any sign of aggression when the flush hits will be seen either as a boat or as a flush and you won't get action. I would much rather see a flop raise semi-bluff which looks like flopped trips trying to protect against a flush draw.