PP Hand and Tough Decisions

This is a hand which came up yesterday on a 5-10 table at PP. I'm not sure if I made the right decision for the wrong reason or wrong/right or right/right (unlikely) or wrong/wrong (more likely)


I'm in the BB in a somewhat typical game. UTG calls (loose passive), middle player calls (loose passive) Cut off raises (tight solid), SB folds and I am holding A-Jo, I call.


Flop is rainbow K - 10 - 8. UTG passes, Middle Player passes, and Cut Off bets. I've a good sense that UTG and Middle will both call. They have been drawing to strange hands before. I even think that UTG would try and draw to an ace if he has one. There is 45 in the pot and my decision...


Sould I peel? My gut reaction of course is no. My reasoning seems simple at first. The pot isn't giving me enough to justify the call. I should be getting at least 5-1 odds with two cards to come but of course calling a turn bet changes the calculations. But suppose I (for some unknown reson) am absolutely sure UTG and Middle will call. The pot would be giving me 11:1 on this flop call which would definitely justify a peel.


But what if neither calls? This is exactly what happened. I called, and UTG and Middle folded leaving heads up. I know the Cut off player to be solid tight and I can easily put him on AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ. There are some other lesser hands he might raise in that position with, but unless he flopped a strong hand with 3 other people seeing the flop, I'm not sure he would have bet the flop.


So the turn drops the 9 giving the board K-10-8-9 complete rainbow. Now I'm in trouble. $56 in the pot and I wait for a long while. My hope is that Cutoff will think I called his preflop raise with JQ and have just flopped the straight and now I'm pondering whether to bet, or attempt a check raise. I wait some more and finally check. Cut off hesitates one second and fires again.


Hmmmm, I think to myself "I've got an open ended straight here and cut off is likely sitting on a set of Kings or a set of 10s". I just haven't seen Cutoff raise with JQ in anything but the most optimal situation. I don't rule it out, but it isn't in my top picks. My 8 outs with one card to come is 4.9:1 underdog. The pot with cutoff's last bet is giving me $66 to call. But the is a hitch. What if Cutoff is sitting on a KA? If a queen falls, the pot is split which changes my equity interest slightly. The best I can hope for is one of the four 7s.


Still, I'm not entirely convinced cutoff would fire at the turn without a monster developing into a bigger monster. Trips is more likely his hand at this point. I decide to gamble...


Low and behold, a 7 falls.


I bet and cut off calls showing me his K-10???? He then launches into a slight criticism of my play telling me that I lost all my credibility with him for making such a call.


At first I thought he might be right. It sure looks loose. But when I retraced my thinking, it appears reasonable. And then, it doesn't.


Any comments on this play would be very helpful


Best of luck to all and thank you in advance.

Do not like your flopcall. How would you know none of the other players raise. If you have such a good read on the raiser why fighting an uphill battle ?? In this case catching an A won't help. Since the flop didn't help you , you should fold.

Given that the board is rainbow and your gutshot is to the nuts AND you have an overcard, you are getting 9-1 from the pot which taking into account implied odds makes you good to call here except for one thing: the chance that one of the two limpers will check-raise, which would not be a good deal. If you think the chance of that happening is very low, you should go ahead and call. If a guardian angel told you before you made your decision that both the other limpers were going to fold, it would be a very close decision. I would probably still call.


Chris

Like the other poster below, I don't necessarily care for the pre-flop call eventhough you're the big blind. AJ is a great also-run hand and a fantastic one to be drawing dead with, particularly if there is a pre-flop raise. But raising with K-T (suited I would presume)?!? (I hope it was a short-handed game.) It's another excellent second-place finisher. What happened is the Cut-Off got luck with the flop. Of course, you were praying with seven outs for the queen on the turn. It didn't come but you got an open-ended re-draw with the 9.


The fact is when you hit a gut-shot straight or a runner-runner flush, it is usually a large pot. I love to hit an insider when the odds are in my favor. It happens but not all that often.


What happen is you fell into the fuzzy logic area of manipulating the pot odds. Before the betting on the flop, the pot odds were 8:1. You called 9:1 which is close to being suffient with your draw. The 9 on the turn was a 4.8:1 dog but with the CO's bet the pot was offering you 5.5:1.


There is a fallacy in this type of analysis. You have drawing odds for making your hand and you have winning odds for claiming the pot. The drawing odds were in your favor but the odds of winning the pot were not. The cut-off made the mistake by raising pre-flop. He made a second mistake in getting over-confident on the turn. But he did have two pair with a 4-outer to beat the straight threat you presented. He was representing QJs the whole way.

Not sure what you mean with "You have drawing odds for making your hand and you have winning odds for claiming the pot. The drawing odds were in your favor but the odds of winning the pot were not".


Would you please explain this? It seem interesting...

thanks

The odds of drawing to a hand are not necessarily the same odds for winning a pot. A flush draw has drawing odds of 4.1:1 at the turn. A player can hit the flush and still lose to a higher flush or better. In this case, the original poster drew a straight at the river, an ignorant-end straight. What if the Cut-Off was raising pre-flop with QJs? The poster would have made his hand, as he did, but lost the pot. Furthermore, the poster was way behind from the flop with ace-high no-pair and no draw versus two-pair.