Did the Groundhog see his shadow or not?

[B00T]

Villan has a VPIP of 37 but a PFR of 3%. He was just totally unpredictable in the 2 sessions I have played againist him. Do I bet the flop, I have a feeling I am way ahead or far far behind. Was that a perfect bluff on the turn?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (6.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font> Hero...........




I was clueless the whole time as to what to do.

[Lost Wages]

Find out on the cheap street where you're at. Bet the flop.

Edit:
There is only 1 way he can have AA, 1 way for KK and 4 ways for AK. If he would play all 3 hands the same then he is twice as likely to have AK as AA &amp; KK combined.

Lost Wages

[djr]

why check the flop? you have a strong hand, but by no means a monster. There are many cards that go ugly for you on the turn, including the T that hit. I'd call the river, you can't afford not to. Just hope all he has are QQ, or JJ

[shant]

Can you explain your reasoning on not betting the flop?

[B00T]

with a 3% reraise, I did not figure him for a limp reraise. If he has AA or KK he is raising. I figured his 3 bet was to see where his (possible JJ-QQ was at) and trap the BB.

When AK hits the flop I think I am way ahead. I was going to raise the turn unless a Q fell. I didnt think he had the last 2 kings left and I wanted some action from either of them to build a pot and make BB's potential draw unattractive to call 2 cold as opposed to having odds on the flop. When he raises me, I then wonder if he hit a set of tens.

Before this hand I was running over the table with good cards and some nice draws so I think MY reputation was a chip spewer so AQ was a chance after further thought.

I am interested in some responses and post the results later.

I will say this, I lost the hand and I dont think my line on any street is what caused me to lose it.