floppy
01-11-2005, 04:22 PM
I'm having trouble playing/sniffing out semi-bluffs. I'll split this out a few ways:
I'll preface this by saying this is Paradise $10 + 1. Players can be tricky here, limping with AK or AA, and some players can be a real pain in the ass to have on your left, raising/reraising you at a moments notice (and sniffing out your blind steals later on)
Say you haven't paired the flop, but have a flush or straight draw (but not both). The straight draw is for top straight, while the flush draw -- well, you tell me, how low can your top card in your hand go before you worry about a higher flush?
On the button (or even next-to-last to act?):
- With 1-2 other players
- With 3+ other players
My current opinion: This seems very stack dependent. If stacks are even, and the pot is very small (1/10 of stacks or less), a semi-bluff might simply invite a check raise or a reraise (depending on what's happened on the flop before it gets to me). If the pot is bigger (1/3-1/2 of stacks), is an all-in the better play, instead of a pot-sized bet? What if you're outstacked by 2 to 1? Even more outstacked than that?
Also, an option that I don't like is calling a big raise on the flop. I tried this the other day, called another big bet on the turn, and ended up losing 1/3 of my stack. I think reraising on the flop the amount I ended up calling on the turn would have been much better (they only need to fold 30% of the time to make it worthwhile, I think)
From the BB or SB limped around Pre-flop:
- With 1-2 other players
- With 3+ other players
My current opinion: I've stopped playing my draws out of position since it's effectively a 20% chance of hitting if someone behind me calls, unless I'm going to hit it again on the turn, in which case I don't see how the implied odds make this a good move.
(Here's how I see this: If the pot is X, and I make a pot-sized bet that is called, the pot is now 3X. If I make another pot-sized bet on the turn, that's another 3X for a total of 4X bet on the two cards, so I need better than 4:1 odds to do this. 80% of the time I miss on the turn, so I need to get them to fold 75% of the time with the turn bet for this to work (80% * 75% = 60% = 80% - 20% [odds to call minus chance I hit the draw with one card]).
Generally, I feel like there's dead money at the start of every table (~3-4 players, usually), and I'd like to get some of it, lest I have 900 or so to everyone elses 2000 later on. When this happens, I feel like I need to go all in even at the 30/60 level, since a bet of 180 just seems to entice an auto-all-in.
Thanks for any advice,
Floppy
I'll preface this by saying this is Paradise $10 + 1. Players can be tricky here, limping with AK or AA, and some players can be a real pain in the ass to have on your left, raising/reraising you at a moments notice (and sniffing out your blind steals later on)
Say you haven't paired the flop, but have a flush or straight draw (but not both). The straight draw is for top straight, while the flush draw -- well, you tell me, how low can your top card in your hand go before you worry about a higher flush?
On the button (or even next-to-last to act?):
- With 1-2 other players
- With 3+ other players
My current opinion: This seems very stack dependent. If stacks are even, and the pot is very small (1/10 of stacks or less), a semi-bluff might simply invite a check raise or a reraise (depending on what's happened on the flop before it gets to me). If the pot is bigger (1/3-1/2 of stacks), is an all-in the better play, instead of a pot-sized bet? What if you're outstacked by 2 to 1? Even more outstacked than that?
Also, an option that I don't like is calling a big raise on the flop. I tried this the other day, called another big bet on the turn, and ended up losing 1/3 of my stack. I think reraising on the flop the amount I ended up calling on the turn would have been much better (they only need to fold 30% of the time to make it worthwhile, I think)
From the BB or SB limped around Pre-flop:
- With 1-2 other players
- With 3+ other players
My current opinion: I've stopped playing my draws out of position since it's effectively a 20% chance of hitting if someone behind me calls, unless I'm going to hit it again on the turn, in which case I don't see how the implied odds make this a good move.
(Here's how I see this: If the pot is X, and I make a pot-sized bet that is called, the pot is now 3X. If I make another pot-sized bet on the turn, that's another 3X for a total of 4X bet on the two cards, so I need better than 4:1 odds to do this. 80% of the time I miss on the turn, so I need to get them to fold 75% of the time with the turn bet for this to work (80% * 75% = 60% = 80% - 20% [odds to call minus chance I hit the draw with one card]).
Generally, I feel like there's dead money at the start of every table (~3-4 players, usually), and I'd like to get some of it, lest I have 900 or so to everyone elses 2000 later on. When this happens, I feel like I need to go all in even at the 30/60 level, since a bet of 180 just seems to entice an auto-all-in.
Thanks for any advice,
Floppy