Misapplying the "wait to the turn"-concept?

[Nick Royale]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB checks.
<font color="green">Easy call. </font>

Flop: (5.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.
<font color="green">By waiting to the turn to raise here I thought I'd get more money into the pot when the turn card is non-scary. If the turn card is scary I could just call (fold to plenty aggression). Resulting in me losing less when I'm behind and winning more when I'm ahead. Is this bad? Should I push my edge on the flop?
</font>

Turn: (5.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.
<font color="green">A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif was not the best card in the deck... </font>

River: (11.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero...
<font color="green">And what now? </font>

[davelin]

I don't know if waiting here really protects your hand. You're only protecting yourself against BB and only if he has a gutshot or other weird draw. Everyone else is suitably trapped.

However waiting for the turn to see what your equity is, I'm willing to discuss the merits of that /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[TwoShedsJackson]

It's a small pot and there are numerous turn cards which could wreck your hand - definitely wait for the turn.

On the river I take the free showdown. This could be weak on my part, as anyone with AT up would probably have raised but someone could have a Q and be desperate to get a checkraise in.

[hate]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I guess I don't see the merit in waiting to the turn on that because there are an awful lot of losing cards to be dealt on the turn. Any 8 or Q makes it a likely loser, although pot odds might favor your 4 outs for the full house once the turn comes, any 7 or K makes it a less likely loser.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I guess I don't see the merit in waiting to the turn on that because there are an awful lot of losing cards to be dealt on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that there's a lot of losing cards that might fall on the turn is why I'm planning to wait and raise the turn only if the it is safe. By this I'm hoping to save money when I'm behind (or get outdrawn) and gain money when I'm ahead and the turn card doesn't change that fact.

[TALLBrad]

Just my view of the world.

Everybody limpped in.... I believe it's reasonable to expect that there is a 4 straight and 4 flush given the board. At the moment I'd be confident that my hand is the best "made" at the moment. This is when you need to push the advantage. By raising the flop you are making it more expensive for the others to draw out on you by trapping them for 2 bets. It would probably also give you a better idea on how you stand against UTG (does he re-raise your raise?)



I'd of checked the river here with the compliment of scare cards.

[tiltaholic]

hi
i like the "wait till the turn" here. but i don't know if it's correct.
i think i check the river through. but i don't know if it's correct.

man, i suck at poker.

-t

[VBM]

Hi Nick,

I think the flop was a good spot to value-raise. You probably have the best hand and how the EP bettors play the turn tells you more about how they feel about their own hands, good card or bad.

as it played out, the turn raise is fine, looks like its buying you a free river if you want it...

and i'd check the river. your aggression on the turn may have made /images/graemlins/heart.gif draws and a lone Q take a chance on check-raising you here, hoping you want to not give a cheap showdown. not many worse hands are likely to call; maybe Ax; but even Ax may be scared you have made a straight or flush.

[DeathDonkey]

I like the flop / turn. Raise preflop, check the river.

-DeathDonkey

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop / turn. Raise preflop, check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the advice. I'm trying to improve my agression and these preflop calls are one of my leaks. My PFR is now 10%, but I'd like it to more like 12%.

What are good aggession stats? Mine are: Preflop: 1.23, Flop: 2.92, Turn 3.70, River: 3.05. I guess I'll have to get more aggressive on the flop, Ím way to passive. Anyone like to share their stats?

[Nick Royale]

Thanks a lot guys! I checked the river through, I really don't believe I will get called by a worse hand here. UTG took the pot with J9.

[DeathDonkey]

They look fine except the preflop. I don't know, I'm not a big stats guy. It surprises me that your preflop aggression factor is so low when you have a PFR of 10. 10 is good, mine is 12, but 10 is good. I raise a lot of hands on the button and CO. I'm learning that I love position and whether you limp with T9s (or 87s etc) on the button after 4 limpers or raise it isn't going to drastically affect your results either way.

-DeathDonkey

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I push my edge on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. This is a terrible time to wait until the turn. People probably have flush draws and open enders. Get the money in while you're ahead.

Edit: Took a closer look and noticed that you're only making one person call 2 cold. I still raise the flop, and bet/raise any non scare card on the turn (IE, everything but a Q, 8 or /images/graemlins/heart.gif).

River is tough. I fear the naked Q. I probably check/call one bet, fold if it's two.

[Nick Royale]

What is the problem with waiting to get the money into the pot until after a safe turncard? Ain't ít better to push my egde when they onlöy have one card to draw to?

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the problem with waiting to get the money into the pot until after a safe turncard? Ain't ít better to push my egde when they onlöy have one card to draw to?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't think waiting until the turn on this board protects you, because flush and straight draws simply will not fold.

When your hand does hold up, you'll win a smaller pot.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't think waiting until the turn on this board protects you, because flush and straight draws simply will not fold.

When your hand does hold up, you'll win a smaller pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see your point. Raising the flop will trap them fo one more bet. But if the UTG bets out again I will gain more by insted raising the turn. At the same time I'll save money when for example Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif comes.

[jrz1972]

This doesnt have much to do with hand protection because, as you noted, flush draws (and probably straight draws) are not folding period.

The issue is that Hero has a small pot equity edge on the flop. By raising the flop, he exploits that small edge.

On the turn, however, Hero's pot equity is either going to rise dramatically (safe card -- only need to dodge once more on the river) or is going to fall to nearly zero (dangerous card). By waiting for the turn, Hero can exploit an even larger edge than he had on the flop (safe card) or will have saved himself a bet (dangerous card).

This looks like a pretty good time to trot out this play to me. What am I missing?

[jrz1972]

For the record, this may be the only time I've opened a "wait for the turn?" thread and actually agreed with the decision to wait for the turn. Usually this concept is abysmally misapplied and many people would be better off if they had never even heard of the idea. So I am by no means predisposed to make this play on a regular basis.

[VBM]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see your point. Raising the flop will trap them fo one more bet. But if the UTG bets out again I will gain more by insted raising the turn. At the same time I'll save money when for example Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif comes.

[/ QUOTE ]

*ahem* from my post...
I think the flop was a good spot to value-raise. You probably have the best hand and how the EP bettors play the turn tells you more about how they feel about their own hands, good card or bad. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

it's also difficult to protect your hand in late position. if everyone checks to you, you can bet, but this doesn't offer much protection as each subsequent caller gives the following player better odds to call.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a pretty good time to trot out this play to me. What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as I can see the only risk I am taking is that it can be checked to me on the turn. If the bet comes from a position closer to my right, I'll be able facing the whole field with 2 cold and 1 to 4.

Another small risk is letting BB call only one bet on the flop, maybe giving him a profitable draw. But that BB should cost me the pot because of me letting im call one bet instead of 2 isn't really likely...

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesnt have much to do with hand protection because, as you noted, flush draws (and probably straight draws) are not folding period.

The issue is that Hero has a small pot equity edge on the flop. By raising the flop, he exploits that small edge.

On the turn, however, Hero's pot equity is either going to rise dramatically (safe card -- only need to dodge once more on the river) or is going to fall to nearly zero (dangerous card). By waiting for the turn, Hero can exploit an even larger edge than he had on the flop (safe card) or will have saved himself a bet (dangerous card).

This looks like a pretty good time to trot out this play to me. What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's very well articulated.

So... what's your plan if a dangerous card falls on the turn? I guess you just have to call if you're getting odds to draw to your boat, right?

[hate]

So what becomes dangerous, the 2 guaranteed losers, or the 2 guaranteed losers plus the 2 less likely losers? I guess that also depends on bettor play in as late a position as he is.