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View Full Version : Two more factors to consider...


10-25-2001, 01:33 AM
Not that these are deciding factors for the series, but just to expose two "myths" I have been hearing:


1. The other DBacks starters are toast.

First off contrary to what is often thought, Brian Anderson will get a start, not Albie Lopez. Anderson pitched well in relief during the playoffs and has been in the playoffs before with Cleveland. This is an important point because one has to look at four games for the Yankees. They are 7-3 overall, but only 2-2 in games started by a lefty. Mulder and Moyer shut them down in the two wins, keeping them off balance and ineffective even with men on base. The two wins were a 1-0 win over Zito when they got all of 2 hits and the clincher against Mulder where the A's defense let him down almost as much as the pitching. Most scouts have said that the best way to beat the Yanks is to send out a lefty and with Anderson the DBacks might have a chance at a "bonus" win.


2. The pens will make a huge difference in this series.

I don't really think its that big of an issue. Yes there is no doubt the Yanks pen is superior, but I don't buy that this will be a deciding factor in the series. I don't need to speak about the Yanks pen because it speaks for itself, but the DBacks pen hasn't been the disaster that they are made out to be at least not so far in the playoffs. If you throw out their one bad game (game 2 NLCS - they started out down 3-1), they have an ERA of 2.12, not exactly a disaster. Further they have 3 saves and haven't lost any games for the team and their stellar performance in game 4 of the NLCS (6 inn, 2 runs) was the key game of the series where they flat outpitched a Braves pen that was supposed to be superior as well. I think this means at most one game will be decided by the pen, otherwise the team that gives the pen the ball with the lead will finish the game with the lead. Not exactly the type of edge that the pundits are making this out to be and that one game that is changed while the pens are being used could very well be a DBacks win.

10-25-2001, 10:01 AM
1. Zito, Mulder and Moyer are stud lefties. Brian Anderson is a crappy lefty. There's a difference. Why didn't he start in any other playoff game? Why didn't he start in September? Because he's a below average pitcher who happened to pitch ok in two relief stints. But the primary reason he's starting over Lopez is because Lopez sucked more recently than Anderson has. Also consider these numbers over the last 3 years : OBP vs RH .304, OBP vs LH .314, SLG vs RH .472, SLG vs LH .448. THat's not a big difference, meaning he is not a dominant lefty over lefties. Compare that to Randy Johnson's differences : OBP vs LH .268 vs RH .286...SLG vs LH .194 vs RH .360. Anderson may be better than Lopez, but not by very much. To me, this change does nothing to the odds of Arizona winning (don't get me wrong though, I think this series line is in line, but if Lopez pitches instead of Anderson, i'd think the same).


2. Except for Kim, their pen flat out sucks. If your first argument is on target, then you have to adjust your second argument, as Anderson is no longer in the bullpen...see what I mean? But let's take a further look at the ARI bullpen :


Kim - could be a stud....but has some scary moments.

Mike Morgan, Greg Swindell, Bobby Witt. Compare this trio to : Scott Strickland, Scott Stewart, Graeme Lloyd, Masato Yoshii. I think i'd prefer the Montrel middle relief / setup pitchers.


I think there is a big difference here. As well as in hitting. The only reason I think Arizona at +130 is fair value is because of Randy Johnson and Randy Johnson alone. Curt Schilling is evenly matched by Mike Mussina. Randy Johnson is the key.

10-25-2001, 10:03 AM
another note about Brian Anderson. notice he did not start against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are weaker versus lefties. They had Drew, Edmonds and Pujols as their hitting studs, two of them were lefties (Mac was a none factor). if Brenly actually thought Anderson was any good versus lefties, he would've started a game instead of Lopez.

10-25-2001, 12:32 PM
Randy Johnson is the key.


Exactly. I'll be curious if he can dominate a playoff team other than Atlanta. He hasn't been able to do it since game one of the 1998 playoffs (a start in which he lost). Atlanta might have the worst offense of any team to make the playoffs in my lifetime (since 1977). A better bet than the Yankees in the series might be to load up on the Yankees in games one and two. Mussina vs. Schilling, Pettitte vs. Johnson. Looks pretty even to me.

10-25-2001, 09:07 PM
Are you seriously convinced that the bullpen will make a difference in more than one game? Sure one pen might do better than another, but if it gets in their hands and they have the lead and the team wins, that is doing your job. I don't see this series having one game after another of one bullpen having the lead and then losing. There is a talent edge, but I am just under the conclusion that it is far less an overall factor than most people are convinced it is. The team whose starters give the ball to the pen with the lead is the team that is going to win.


As for Anderson I certainly didn't try to make the point he is Randy Johnson, just that most scouts will tell you the type of pitcher the Yankees least want to face is a non-power pitching lefty, exactly the guys they had trouble with so far. With this in mind, putting Anderson in is at least a small addition to their chances, especially over Lopez. When you consider if the series were to go to a 7th game, then that means two shots with the type of pitcher that matches up best with the Yankees. That has to at least be CONSIDERED a factor. I didn't say it would decide the series, but it just might because players like this often make the difference between a title and wait til next year. After all how many could have figured Brosius or Leyritz would have been key players to the Yankees in past Series?

10-26-2001, 01:12 AM
all i'm saying is that the bullpen is a big difference....its just as important as the difference between Luis Gonzalez and Chuck Knoblauch...and Jeter over Womack...etc. just another piece of the puzzle. but certainly the bullpen difference means more than Schilling/Moose diff, which I think is zero. so to just throw away the diff in the bullpens is ignoring an important part of the game.


Anderson is no better than Lopez in my mind.


Anderson vs LH in last 3 years : 314 OBP 448 SLG

Lopez vs LH in last 3 years : 363 OBP 418 SLG


Lopez pitched in AL for 2.5 of those years where he didn't face any LH'd pitchers while Anderson did. To me, they are equal...against the Yankees or against anyone else.

10-26-2001, 10:07 AM
Anderson pitched in the AL earlier in career and does have some history against some Yankee hitters. How has he done against Martinez, Brosius, Williams, Knobloch, & Jeter to name a few? Brenley's looked at those stats without doubt.

10-26-2001, 12:54 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20011026daily.html

10-26-2001, 08:26 PM
Martinez: 5 for 13 with 4 home runs


Brosius: 0 for 0; walked his only at bat


Williams: 3 for 9 with 4 walks


Knoblauch: 4 for 8 with 1 home run


Jeter: 4 for 8 with 1 home run


O'Neill: 9 for 19 with 4 home runs


Velarde: 6 for 17 with 1 home run


Posada: 1 for 3 with 1 home run


Not too encouraging, from Anderson's standpoint. But he hasn't faced these guys since 1997.