Too weak w/TT?

[Aaron W.]

This just happened at a Paradise $1/2 table.

UTG raises, then two folds to me. I have TT. This player is pretty tight preflop but really opens up postflop in shorthanded pots. His preflop stats read: 172 hands, 16% VPIP, and 4% PFR, and I'm pretty comfortable that the stats fit what I've seen. I mucked it, and I think it's a good fold. But at the same time, I feel a bit weak.

Reasoning: I'm 50-50 with a fair number of hands that he would likely be raising (unpaired paint), and I'm chasing 2 outs to the rest of them. If I play, I'm 3-betting, which likely means a heads up situation. Since he's willing to get agressive heads up, I'm probably going to a showdown with him. It's too expensive for a situation that isn't quite good enough.

What do you say?

[Georgia Peach]

I think I would re-raise, call the 3-bet if it comes and see the flop and fold if he bets and there is no set.

AK or AQs is also a possibility.

[dangerous_badman]

I think that's reasonable... A few limpers already in and then a raise from a TAG, and it could be different if it looked like it might be sufficiently multiway. Heads up against someone who probably PFRs JJ+ and big aces, TT looks a bit less promising.

[Aaron W.]

My bad

[Aaron W.]

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I think I would re-raise, call the 3-bet if it comes and see the flop and fold if he bets and there is no set.

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Raising TT and play for a set? That's terrible.

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AK or AQs is also a possibility.

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As are are a few other hands... I don't understand what you mean here.

[dangerous_badman]

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A few limpers already in and then a raise from a TAG

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Are you reading the right post?

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Yes.

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A few limpers already in and then a raise from a TAG, and it could be different

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[Aaron W.]

Sorry. I was a little bit on posting tilt after reading the first response.

[Georgia Peach]

well, so you fold TT here or call. ok. I wouldn't. I would re-raise, call a 3-bet. And hope for a set. I'm not folding TT here, and I think calling gives you no info whatsoever.

It's a few SBs to find out a lot. And if a T shows up and the aggressor has AA or KK, you can make a lot of money on this hand.

[dangerous_badman]

Heh, fair enough. The concept of posting tilt was comical enough for me to accept the apology.

I'm not sure about the line in the first response either. If you're going to play it mostly for set value, coldcall and hope others do likewise, surely? Not that I like the idea of that

[Georgia Peach]

What do I know, I was on tilt when I responded. Just had 27o beaten by 38o.

[Aaron W.]

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well, so you fold TT here or call. ok. I wouldn't. I would re-raise, call a 3-bet. And hope for a set. I'm not folding TT here, and I think calling gives you no info whatsoever.

It's a few SBs to find out a lot. And if a T shows up and the aggressor has AA or KK, you can make a lot of money on this hand.

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I don't think a preflop 3-bet really gives me a whole lot of information (BTW - I would doing the 3-bet, and it would come back capped). I don't know how much I would find out, and if the 3 SB is worth putting in for the 3.5 SB pot for the sake of "information".

Also, if you assume that I'm playing for a set, I don't think I really care what he has. If I flop a set, I'm going to the river. If I don't, I'm folding. So what does the extra information I bought do for me?

Also, if I'm only playing for a set, then I've got nowhere near sufficient odds (including implied) to call this. It's going to be heads up, and I could probably get 4 BB out of him postflop. If you assume that I do the smarter thing (cold call to play for a set, not 3-bet to play for a set), then

-> 8/9 times I lose 2 SB on the call.
-> 1/9 times I win 4 BB (postflop) + 3.5 SB (raiser + blinds) = 11.5 SB
-> EV = -16/9 + 11.5/9 = -4.5/9 = -.5 SB.

You'll need to throw in two cold callers every single time (and have me always win when I hit a set) for this to be a good play.

[dangerous_badman]

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What do I know, I was on tilt when I responded. Just had 27o beaten by 38o.

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Happened to me on Party yesterday, clearly rigged

Seriously though, if it's going to come back capped in all cases and Villain is uniformly aggro postflop, raising isn't actually going to gain you any information here, so it seems counterproductive against someone with PFR% 4 who you're either flipping a coin with or far behind.

[Georgia Peach]

Well, what if he folds to your re-raise? If he's that tight, he might know that you know how tight he is.

What if he just calls? What if he caps? That's the info I'm looking for w/TT in hand.

Let's say you just call. The flop comes all rags, and he bets out. Are you going to fold because he might have a big pair? Or are you going to limp to the river, or possibly raise here? If he's got any connected paint cards, you're ahead.

This is a part of the philosophy I don't get here. You're assuming there's a monster under the bed and it might just be a dust bunny.

You asked if it was too weak. I think it was.

[Aaron W.]

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Well, what if he folds to your re-raise? If he's that tight, he might know that you know how tight he is.

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I don't think you'll find anyone who has a hand where UTG raises preflop and folds to a preflop 3-bet. That simply does not happen.

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What if he just calls? What if he caps? That's the info I'm looking for w/TT in hand.

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Tell me what I learn if he just calls or if he caps AND how it affects how I play out the rest of the hand if I'm looking for a set (by your position).

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Let's say you just call. The flop comes all rags, and he bets out. Are you going to fold because he might have a big pair? Or are you going to limp to the river, or possibly raise here? If he's got any connected paint cards, you're ahead.

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I included a post flop read which addresses this issue.

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You asked if it was too weak. I think it was.

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This is fine. But your reasoning (which is what interests me) doesn't make much sense.

[Georgia Peach]

Besides, I'll quote from Mr. Miller's SSH:

"Do not play timidly with these [QQ, JJ, TT] before the flop simply because an overcard can beat you...." p.65 He goes on to say on the next page that it's okay to re-raise if it's only been raised once.

I know that doesn't prove anything, but he's not a bad source.

[dangerous_badman]

Miller is indeed a valuable source. He also says:

"An expert player who fully understands preflop and postflop concepts will frequently deviate (correctly) from these suggestions."

Hero shouldn't ignore a good read on Villain and stick solidly to Miller's recommendations in all situations. Against the laggy types SSH strategy is designed to beat, the three-bet is fine. This is one such situation where deviation from ABC microlimit play based on the information you've already gathered on Villain seems reasonable.

[Aaron W.]

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Besides, I'll quote from Mr. Miller's SSH:

"Do not play timidly with these [QQ, JJ, TT] before the flop simply because an overcard can beat you...." p.65 He goes on to say on the next page that it's okay to re-raise if it's only been raised once.

I know that doesn't prove anything, but he's not a bad source.

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But that's not the reason I'm playing this timidly. There's a lot more than just fear of an overcard going on here. I would re-raise this in most situations (which is why my fold *feels* weak). But at the same time, the reasoning indicates that folding is prudent (and the reasoning never once mentioned that I'm afraid of "an overcard").

[Georgia Peach]

Back to your reply. If he caps PF, you can be a lot more sure he has AA or KK. You can then fold, or call and hope for a set on the flop and fold UI.

If he calls your re-raise, then it's up to the flop and what comes. You then have to decide does he have the big pairs or does he have big connectors.

On the rag flop, if he bets out, you can fold assuming he has you beat if you want. But I don't think I could fold TT with a rag flop and his bet. I would have to call and fold the turn UI.

On the other hand, your re-raise, his call and a rag flop might induce a check from him, in which case you can bet out or even check it if you're positive he's got you beat and see if turn brings you the 22-1 shot.

I would bet out the rag flop and fold to a raise. If he calls, I would continue the pressure on the turn/river depending upon what falls.

I know that "hope" is a bad word these days with all the background applications telling us all of the probabilities and aggression factors, flop seein' factors and what he probably had for breakfast.

[Georgia Peach]

Miller said "expert" player. Who's an expert on this forum and who in the heck "fully understands" anything?
If Aaron's an expert and fully understands, then what's the point of asking if his play is weak or not?

Was it a trick question that was attempting to keep me up past my bedtime? Well it worked, but I have to go now.
I still think it was a weak fold, but I do understand the fold nevertheless and all your other points. I just don't agree.

[Aaron W.]

I'm going to try one more time, but I think I'm talking past you and you're completely missing the points I'm making.

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Back to your reply. If he caps PF, you can be a lot more sure he has AA or KK. You can then fold, or call and hope for a set on the flop and fold UI.

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Just as there is no way UTG raises preflop and folds to a preflop 3-bet, there's no way I'm folding to a preflop cap when it's one bet to me. That type of play is simply absurd.

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On the rag flop, if he bets out, you can fold assuming he has you beat if you want. But I don't think I could fold TT with a rag flop and his bet. I would have to call and fold the turn UI.


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Given the postflop read, I can't really assume a whole lot. He's probably going to play hard no matter what he has, and I doubt I'm going to make him fold. This means I'm basically going to the river (as you probably should against an agressive player in this spot if the board isn't menacing).

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On the other hand, your re-raise, his call and a rag flop might induce a check from him, in which case you can bet out or even check it if you're positive he's got you beat and see if turn brings you the 22-1 shot.

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This line doesn't make any sense. If I'm "positive" he's got me beat, what would indicate this between my preflop 3-bet and the flop check? There's only that preflop call. And the call doesn't give me any more information about his hand. Also, the postflop read indicates that he's likely to bet the flop regardless of what falls.

[Georgia Peach]

Well, okay then. If it felt prudent then you did the right thing.

But, you've got to remember that Chamberlain did the prudent thing in '38 and look what happened. Hitler faked strength and Chamberlain kau-tau'd. Then before you know it, he's attacking Poland and France after getting a free year to build up.

I think you have to follow your gut and if you did, then you probably did save some bets. I'll grant you that. You had a read on him and you went with it.

[dangerous_badman]

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Miller said "expert" player. Who's an expert on this forum and who in the heck "fully understands" anything?

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I'm having visions of a man clutching at straws.

What Miller is essentially saying is here are some solid starting guidelines, but as you accumulate experience, use your head. If you're not comfortable doing that, that's cool. We're trying to put the extra effort in.

By the by, the only way UTG is laying it down preflop to Hero's 3-bet is if he accidentally unplugs his network cable.

[BruinEric]

Geez. I was hoping to catch this thread for a good dialogue on TT and found myself in the middle of a grouch-fest.

The original poster asks "too Weak?" in his subject line, so I assume he's looking for replies.

As for TT pre-flop here, I probably grimace and Re-Raise because I'm not enough of an expert to deviate from the SSHE strategy too much. There are lots of hands someone w/4% PFR in a sample size of 172 hands might raise with. I played with a 6% VP$IP (and 0 PF Raise) for a while last week -- and over 150+ hands, he only made it to ONE showdown. Faced with his raise, I'm probably out as well.

Therefore, if you are absolutely sure of your read on this guys hole cards, are absolutely sure he will re-raise pre-flop, and confident he will go aggro post-flop no matter the flop, then I don't understand the reason for the original post.

As for your implied point about risk mitigation, if every hand like this you had these options:
a) Losing $1 guaranteed.
b) Winning $100 51% of the time
c) Losing $100 49% of the time

and if your bankroll and psychological makeup would not do well with the inevitable "streaks" which would result, then I'd choose (a) as well.

This mentality often has the effect of putting me in call-down mode and losing my aggressiveness (hence, I'm stuck in TA-N in the past 3k hands).

[Aaron W.]

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Geez. I was hoping to catch this thread for a good dialogue on TT and found myself in the middle of a grouch-fest.

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I'm sorry it degenerated into that, too. But I am willing to return to civility after a good night's rest and more time to reflect.

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Therefore, if you are absolutely sure of your read on this guys hole cards, are absolutely sure he will re-raise pre-flop, and confident he will go aggro post-flop no matter the flop, then I don't understand the reason for the original post.

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This is perhaps what was bothering me the most. Given the same read, but with QQ instead, this is a clear 3-bet. It's not that the hands I would put him on would change, but it's that I'm giving up much much more if I'm a little wrong. JJ puts me in a similar feeling as TT, but I'm more inclined to go ahead and 3-bet anyway because the hand is just a bit stronger.

How confident is confident enough to put this play in the realm of the reasonable? Clearly, 10 hands isn't good enough. 50 hands probably isn't either. 100 I think might still be short of sufficient... 500 is (at least, it had better be) enough.