A very marginal call with 99

[DrPublo]

PP 50NL, full game. Villain is the table big stack, been pretty tame to date. No noteworthy hands that would label him as one type or another...after 70 hands PT lists him as 46/5.8. I really don't like my river call, but I figured his $30 bet was either a slowplayed monster or a total bluff.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($42.75)
MP1 ($171.5)
MP2 ($51.18)
MP3 ($49.25)
CO ($43.35)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($32.35)</font>
SB ($50.15)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($265.75)</font>
UTG ($59.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.50) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $1</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, BB calls $4, MP2 calls $3.

Turn: ($16.50) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, BB calls $10, MP2 folds.

River: ($36.50) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $30</font>, Hero calls $17.35 (All-In).

Final Pot: $83.85

I realize the problem is only betting 10 on the turn but I think my stack is too deep to push the turn, especially with the overcard coming off. If I pot the turn, for example, I might as well push, but I'm not willing to do that because with only the flop call his hand isn't well enough defined. His line of call, call really suggested a draw to me, probably a naked 5, which is why I called the river at roughly 3:1--but I certainly wasn't happy about it. I tried to find a fold but couldnt...something about the bet of $30 (compared to my stack of $17) felt like he was trying to push me out. I considered the call breakeven at best.

Anyone play it different or can better justify the call?

The Doc

[DrPublo]

Bump??

No one thinks this hand is interesting? Wayfare and I discussed it privately and thought that the stack-sizes (in particular my stack size, since I started the hand without a full stack) make the hand play very awkwardly.

Buhler? Buhler? Anyone?

The Doc

[Triumph36]

Now that you mention it, the stack sizes do make it interesting.

This is hindsight talking, but I think you should raise this pre-flop. You have position and a good hand. Since you didn't play it for set value, you must've thought it was the best hand pre-flop. The more money you get in pre-flop, the easier the decisions become on later streets, I think. If some overcards come out, you know to be done with the hand if anyone bets (whereas this is not always true in an unraised pot), and you can confidently bet a flop if checked to that has overcards, and if you get called, you can know not to bet anymore.

Case in point, the raise to 4 on the flop would be called by a lot of hands, which include overcards and straight draws. There's just about no card in the deck that you want to see on the turn, so why not make it more and find out where you're at?

It really looks like a slowplayed monster to me. BB could've caught two pair on the turn, he could have flopped the straight, hit a set, etc. If you picked off a bluff, good hand, but when a player wakes up on the river and sets a basically pot-committed short stack all in, I have to expect to see a big hand here.

[DrPublo]

Isn't my stack too small to raise preflop? If I make it $5 and both limpers call, then I have only about a pot-and-a-half sized bet left. I'm essentially all in on the flop no matter what it is.

No, I think a better play is to limp and tread lightly. The BB's river bet really felt out of place from his previous line of call, call. If he had a set or a vulnerable hand like 2 pair he should raise at some point to charge a naked 5 for drawing. Because I was so confused, I followed the old adage of "if he action doesn't make sense, he's probably bluffing" and called.

I think the real juncture in the hand though is the turn. I can't check it through in case someone has a naked 5, but I can't really bet more than 10 either I dont think, because then I might as well bet it all. But I don't want to bet it all yet because the BB's hand is still somewhat undefined, and I don't want to push into a monster. Would a bet of like 7 be better?

The Doc

[shadyfin]

It may be a matter of opinion, but I believe your nines, stack-size, and position are good for a pre-flop raise here. Atleast it helps define the hands and announces that you have a strong hand. If you would have raised and then bet the flop and were called by a quiet player, then you could say you were up against a hand. In an uraised pot, big bets by the BB are the ones I fear most as they can have anything.

You may be right that his weird bet was a bluff, but from what you have said about the player, I would say he has a hand.

Also, some players at these stakes do the strangest things - trying to make sense of some players will only get you into trouble. How many times have I had the second best hand facing an all-in bet, and thought, "He can't have the nuts! If he did he would make a value bet that I could call - not throwing in all his money where I would surely fold." So I call and nope, it was the nuts.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
It may be a matter of opinion, but I believe your nines, stack-size, and position are good for a pre-flop raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

How? It's only a good play if the limpers fold often enough...which they do a lot at 50NL but not that much, and the way the table was running I didn't see it happening. Like I noted above, by making a reasonable raise I'm essentially pot stuck on any flop, and that I do NOT like.

[ QUOTE ]
At least it...announces that you have a strong hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I prefer to play 99 to wallop someone if they get out of line with one pair when I have a set. Too many flops I don't want to see. Also, I raise a LOT of stuff from the button after a couple of limpers to try and tie them to the pot if I hit nice, but given my short stack I didn't want this to be one of those "Don't turn AJo into 72o" sitautions (for the reference read TPFAP).

The Doc

[shadyfin]

Well I guess you would know the table better - I just feel that position, a decent hand, and no one showing any strength pre-flop is worth raising which would be approx 15% of your stack. You'll only need the players to fold a small portion of the time to show a profit since other times you'll hit your set and others you'll get a nice flop, like you did - but, also you'll often be able to get the hand heads up which will increase the chance the other player will miss the flop.

If you felt like you were too short stacked to be making raises is there a reason you just didn't add more money?

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
If you felt like you were too short stacked to be making raises is there a reason you just didn't add more money?

[/ QUOTE ]

3-tabling, didn't realize I had let it dwindle so much on that table.

The problem with raising 99 is that the flop too often contains enough overcards to make you uncomfortable. That's not to say I never do it, but I prefer to do it in EP-MP to shut out the rest of the field and take the blinds. In LP, I assume that the limpers have mostly high cards (not always a valid assumption but probably close enough in the long term) and prefer to limp and stack them if they get uppity with just a pair.

The Doc

[edtost]

with your stack size and the fact that he just called the flop, a turn push would've been a heckuva play, though admittedly very thin. then again, i haven't played nl against the party class of retards in a while, so it might just be awful.

[DrPublo]

It's thin, but is it thinner than the river call?

At least with a turn push I have SOME fold equity, right? At the same time a worse hand never calls a turn push, or at least I think it wouldn't.

The Doc

[edtost]

now that i think about it, a turn push is awful. if the hands were reversed, on the other hand, a push would've been a valid thought.

[DrPublo]

Eh, this hand never really generated the debate I was looking for. As it is, I hemmed and hawed and called. He shows 45 and MHIG.

The Doc

[Triumph36]

Your hand was good but you gave your opponent odds to draw on both the flop and the turn. That raise to 4 on the flop is a bad play, IMO, because it builds a pot with a marginal hand. The only cards you want to see there are an 8 and a 9, every other card in the deck is potentially bad for you. If your opponents are transparent enough to bet when they hit and check when they don't, then it's a good raise.

With the short stack, I play this more aggressively. Yes, your hand held up, and perhaps you deceived the BB into thinking you had nothing, but with a stack this short, I don't want to be making fancy plays with 99.

[DrPublo]

So you just call on the flop or you raise more?

Also how do I give my opponent odds to draw on the flop, and in particular on the turn? He's getting 2.5:1 immediate odds on the call, not enough for just the open-ender but close if he thinks his trips/two pair outs are good. But he can't think his two pair outs are good because they put a 4-straight on the board. Also, do you think I'm putting a single cent more into the pot if a 2 or 7 slides off? His hand has zero implied odds.

The Doc

The Doc

[Triumph36]

I raise more, I think. Even though you got more of your money in on the turn when you are a bigger favorite, I think it's impossible to put him on a hand here. If he calls a big raise, it's very easy to put him on a draw and set him in on the turn.

A four-straight comes out on the board if he hits his two pair, but can the opponent really put you on a 2 or a 7? These are two of the least likely cards for you to hold. Moreover, since he's the big blind, he could've represented those cards very easily.

[DrPublo]

Your advice is contradictory. For him to represent a deuce or a 7 he would need to coldcall with a gutshot on the flop and again on the turn. Or he could have flopped the straight and be milking me the whole time. These are things I had to consider when I made the river call.

Also, if he calls a bigger raise shouldn't I be inclined to put him on more of a hand than a draw?

The only problem with raising more is that it pretty much pot sticks me on the turn, since I can't put anyone on a ten. But pushing the turn (for slightly over the pot) is awful because at that point I will only get called by a better hand. Do you see now why this hand was bothersome?

The Doc

[tdomeski]

Fold the river.

You've shown that much strength the whole hand, he's called you the whole way and you only have $17 left. .He can't think he's pushing you off a hand.

[ML4L]

Hey Publo,

I would beat him into a pot with my call. His hand looks very much like a 5 that missed his draw. Sets and two pair are going to gun it out sooner. If he trapped me, he trapped me. Your hand only has to be good 1/3 of the time here. Your hand should be good FAR more often than that.

Just checked the results; glad it worked out...

ML4L

[DrPublo]

Hey ML,

I respect your posts a lot...you play it the same?

The Doc

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey ML,

I respect your posts a lot...you play it the same?

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise before the flop, but a call is not necessarily bad. Postflop was perfect. Particularly the turn bet; many players check there, which is incorrect against most low-limit opponents. The river call will become automatic for you in time.

ML4L

[Triumph36]

I think ML4L is right when he says that two pair and a set play this much faster, especially with the straight draw out there. You could've had just about anything on the button and the opponent would like to find out sooner. So with that river bet he either shows you the straight or a bluff.

As for being contradictory, I think I was saying Villain would bet if he hit his two pair with no fear of you having hit the gutshot straight. So in that sense he was 'representing' the straight by springing to life when it was made.

[heropretend]

first nl post here.

I think it was a good call. sizable stacks become that way by pushing their best hands on the flop/turn.

If I'm feeling in the mood for patient play with the nuts, my river bet will reflect that and I'll bet a number that will basically put you all in, like 10 or 15 bucks.

If I'm playing like a maniac, I am semibluffing or betting the turn (with the nuts) on a checkraise. Otherwise your aggression will cause me to lay down.

I think you have got to put big stacks on river bluffs as often as possible when the nonsensical seems sensible...if that makes any sense.

[creedofhubris]

I think you played it fine. I would've gone ahead and potted the turn, though. (Actually, I watch my stacks carefully so they don't dwindle to that level!)

I also think there is a lot to be said for raising preflop with 99 on the button.

That check-call/check-call/big river bet is very often a bluff when the obvious draw has missed.