ITM 46% opinion

[jaydoggie]

Still playing $5 sngs on stars. I had a horrible streak of beats, and then continued the streak while playing frustrated and killed my ROI/ITM. I feel for the most part it was a natural streak and not too effected by frustration. By looking at my numbers I feel I'm taking 1st too often, and 2nd and 3rd not frequently enough. I don't feel this is a streak, but that I get my chips in too frequently when theres 4-7 players left.

1 18.8%
2 12.0%
3 15.4%
4 15.4%
5 14.1%
6 10.3%
7 6%
8 5.6%
9 2.6%

does anyone come to the same conclusion?

[eastbay]

All you should care about right now is moving up. Overanalyzing $5+1 results is a total waste of time. Just move up, if you've got 30 buy-ins. If you don't, get 'em.

eastbay

[Mr_J]

I think your stats are pretty good. 46% ROI? And more 1sts than 2nd and 3rd is good since 1st pays quite a bit more.

[jaydoggie]

5+.5 on pokerstars.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
5+.5 on pokerstars.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okie doke. Move up anyway. Your results are very good, assuming your sample is decent (150+), you should not be piddling around at $5+.5 any longer.

Worrying about "too many firsts" is a little comical. Your ITM is plenty high, and if your 1sts are dominating, all the better.

eastbay

[jaydoggie]

well i didnt mean to whine about winning too much, i feel like im not winning enough because i take 1st a lopsided amount and not because of my ITM skill, but because im chancing too much OTM. my results have dropped tremendously in the last 100 tournaments and gives me no confidence to beat the level im at. i dont think im near ready psychologically to move up and handle twice the swing financially.
http://geocities.com/jayd0ggie/cc.JPG

[eastbay]

Except that you're not. 46% ITM is plenty. I'd say move up if it was 42%. You started out with an unsustainable streak. There's no reality there. You're letting the trendline worry you too much, but that trendline is almost certainly meaningless; it's just the "memory" from the initial streak which meant nothing.

eastbay

[jaydoggie]

sounds good eastbay, i strongly respect your opinions and thoughts. i started working a full time job for the first time in years and havent been able to find the time yet to focus on poker but once i get a comfortable bankroll i will move up. im just very very scared of going bust. and i know even a short losing streak might frustrate me enough to start a prolonged one, thats really the only thing preventing me from doing it already.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
sounds good eastbay, i strongly respect your opinions and thoughts. i started working a full time job for the first time in years and havent been able to find the time yet to focus on poker but once i get a comfortable bankroll i will move up. im just very very scared of going bust. and i know even a short losing streak might frustrate me enough to start a prolonged one, thats really the only thing preventing me from doing it already.

[/ QUOTE ]

You could do a "threshold" strategy were you only play $10s if you are above X dollars, say $300. The moment you go back under, you move down.

But, by all means play within yourself. Don't do it if you don't want to for your own reasons.

eastbay

[burningyen]

What does your profit graph look like?

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
Still playing $5 sngs on stars. I had a horrible streak of beats, and then continued the streak while playing frustrated and killed my ROI/ITM. I feel for the most part it was a natural streak and not too effected by frustration. By looking at my numbers I feel I'm taking 1st too often, and 2nd and 3rd not frequently enough. I don't feel this is a streak, but that I get my chips in too frequently when theres 4-7 players left.

1 18.8%
2 12.0%
3 15.4%
4 15.4%
5 14.1%
6 10.3%
7 6%
8 5.6%
9 2.6%

does anyone come to the same conclusion?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say you are almost certainly not getting your chips in too frequently when there are 4 players left, simply because that's hard to do! A preponderance of 1sts, 3rds, and 4ths (with more of the former) is to be expected if you are playing with the correct level of aggression on the bubble.

It's easy to feel dumb when you push with 83o on a steal and get called by KK. Don't. (Feel dumb, that is.) Correct bubble play means being the first into the pot, most of the time.

[therock]

If I'm reading this correct, you had a 63% ROI after 105 tournaments and a 30% ROI after 215 tournamnets. I think this means that you have played that last 110 tournaments near a ZERO ROI. If thats the case, you may want to play another 250 tournaments at this level and see what your ROI does beofre moving up. I know 215 tournaments is not a good sample size, but it is hard to believe you could play 100 tournaments at 63% ROI and then play the next 100 at ZERO ROI without your game changing.