Quick over pair question.

[kongo_totte]

NL $1 BB Online. All relevant stacks are about $100. Villian (UTG) has a 4% PFR. I'm dealt 9 9 in SB

Villian raises to $4, button calls, I call. 3 to the flop.

Flop ($13): 8 8 2 r

Do I lead here, and if so, how much?

[DoubleDown]

I'd consider leading out for about $10. If both players I'm up against are fairly tight and call my bet, I either:

a)shut down, unless I hit a 9 on the turn.
b)fire blocking bets on the turn and river to try to reach a cheap showdown
--in both scenarios I am folding to any turn/river aggression

If they are tight, and raise my flop bet, I strongly consider folding.

not sure if this is too weak of a line... interested to hear others comments

[TheWorstPlayer]

If villain is aggressive and is likely to bet a miss, then I would prefer to check-raise the flop to get that extra bet if I am ahead. If he is likely to check through if he missed, then leading is goot.

[kongo_totte]

I'm not sure I like your wayt, TheWorstPlayer. If I check, and he bets I wouldn't know if he beats me or if he missed, and since he would bet about the pot, I would have to bet twice the pot to find out where I'm at.

I think I lean towards the line of betting out. If he missed he folds, which is OK, I win a pot with a hand I really only played for a set, even when I missed the set. If he calls, I could be quite confident he has got me beat.

[Tilt]

Lead out strong - pot bet. That way if he plays back at you know where you stand and can get away from it. If he plays it passively and calls then shut down unless you know hes capable of complicated bluffs. Hes not calling a pot bet with a 2, you know that much. At least you have an out to a very solid hand.

If you bet less you really wont know where you are at. I dont think AK/AQ is going to raise you here. So if you are betting less than 13 id rather just check/fold.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Look at the "Lame challenge" thread where OP raises the lead after missing. Also, against a good aggressive player I have gotten them to fold an overpair by check-raising the flop (set anyone?) if he will bet a miss, could raise a miss and has the potential to to fold an overpair then I will definitely prefer the check-raise. I agree that these people are few and far between at these stakes. I am elading 95% of the time here, too, probably, since even if he is aggressive he still probably only bets a miss 50%-75% of the time, so I would rather not give him free cards.

[kongo_totte]

Well, I bet out here but probably not big enough. I bet $8, he re-raised, I folded.