Set with a flush draw out.

[nothumb]

Okay, here's one I think is pretty clear, but I had an argument with a friend who was watching me play.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds...

Action to hero. UTG+2 has a VPIP of 72% and an AF (not including preflop) of .7. Loose and bad and probably has a decent hand like TPTK or 2 pair. The only remaining player (SB) is 48%/0% with an AF under 1. Only other read is that he is a bit more reasonable post-flop and folds the turn a lot.

What's your play, believing that UTG+2 is betting the turn about 95% of the time?

NT

[Hack]

3bet the flop. If a heart hits the turn then go from there.

[davelin]

What's your friend's argument for not raising?

[PoBoy321]

How likely is it that he would call a reraise on the turn? How likely is it that he would cap the flop if you 3-bet? If you reraise, do you think he'd still bet out?

If you think you can reraise here and he'd still cap and bet the turn, then you have to raise. However, my line in this situation would probably be to call and then raise him on a non-heart turn.

[Vern]

Hey, lets see if I can get this one wrong too...

I think I re-raise the flop.
<ul type="square"> I am most definitely ahead here because there was no raise/re-raise pre-flop to signal someone has QQ.
The pot is already large so no sense in slow playing
SB is already in for a bet on the flop and will be more likely to contribute more to the pot now than facing two cold on the turn when you try to raise UTG+2
UTG+2 might cap the flop letting you get 4 sb out of him and SB on the flop and still try for a check/raise on the turn.
[/list]

Vern

[nothumb]

[ QUOTE ]
How likely is it that he would call a reraise on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean a raise after he bets out on the turn? Very. You mean a reraise on the flop? Virtually certain.

[ QUOTE ]
How likely is it that he would cap the flop if you 3-bet? If you reraise, do you think he'd still bet out?


[/ QUOTE ]

Not likely and no. If he capped this flop I would probably be losing to QQ.

BTW, I think this is actually very debatable, but threads where you say you got in a fight with a friend always get more responses... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

NT

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, lets see if I can get this one wrong too...

I think I re-raise the flop.
<ul type="square"> I am most definitely ahead here because there was no raise/re-raise pre-flop to signal someone has QQ.
The pot is already large so no sense in slow playing
SB is already in for a bet on the flop and will be more likely to contribute more to the pot now than facing two cold on the turn when you try to raise UTG+2
UTG+2 might cap the flop letting you get 4 sb out of him and SB on the flop and still try for a check/raise on the turn.
[/list]

Vern

[/ QUOTE ]

I love it Vern.

[Vern]

Well I did get it a little wrong, I referenced a check/raise on the turn, but our Hero is the button and wants to just raise the turn.