The legend of neverwin

[eastbay]

Is someone going to tell this bedtime story, or what?

eastbay

[Nagoo81]

Once upon a time, there was a smart computer science guy who came up with an idea for an automated program that would play high stakes poker on PokerStars for him.....

[ipp147]

Hi eastbay,

There is a thread starting by snakehead regarding online earn etc. Somewhere amongst it Mr Diablo states that the long run is longer than everyone thinks.

My 2 cents. Ran a bankroll up very quickly through good(ish) play and very good luck. He now seems to have run it down very quickly as well.

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Once upon a time, there was a smart computer science guy who came up with an idea for an automated program that would play high stakes poker on PokerStars for him.....

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was neverlose, who played high limit short-handed HE, and O/8 on Stars.

Neverwin had a lot of money, went broke, and now pretends to be other people to ask for money.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
My 2 cents. Ran a bankroll up very quickly through good(ish) play and very good luck. He now seems to have run it down very quickly as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

From what I understand, he built a majority of his bankroll by winning a large tournament that paid out in or around the 6 figure range. (i dont have the information on which tourney it was) He then bought a Benz, made a crappy website for people to jock him on, and then promptly went broke playing 100/200 and god only knows what else. As mmbt0ne said, he now tries to borrow money from people using various 'methods' to continue playing. He has finished in the top 50-ish in a few recent Stars $215's, but not sure if it's his money he's playing with.

[MMMMMM]

[ QUOTE ]
Somewhere amongst it Mr Diablo states that the long run is longer than everyone thinks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kudos to El Diablo for posting that.

The long run may not be longer than "I" think. I think you probably can't truly reach it in one lifetime (at least playing live only). My guess would be about ten lifetimes of full-time live play might do it.

Most people fail to realize the wide variety of conditions in poker that impact your bottom line.

For instance, the "cards" may break even after a while (meaning you eventually get approximately as many good hands and crap hands as anyone else), but the matchups may not be breaking even until much, much later. That is, your KKK may be up against someone's AAA and your QQQ up against his KKK, whereas his QQQ was up against someone else's JJJ (simplified to illustrate the point. Blackjack may illustrate the point even better, your 17 vs house 18, your 18 vs house 19, your 19 vs house 20, your 20 vs house 21, your 21 vs house 17--whereas someone else with those same exact hands could have been matched in a manner where they won 4/5 of the matchups instead of losing 4/5 of the matchups--with the exact same mix of hands and opposing hands, just in a different hand order. And of course, the much wider variety of possible hands in poker means that the matchups will not even out anywhere nearly as quickly as in blackjack).

Then, the matchups may break even after a much longer while, but the pots may not be breaking even yet (you may be making your biggest winning hands in rather anemic pots). You may also get beat with the 3-outers in the biggest pots, whereas someone else gets beat with 3-outers in the smaller pots but has their hands stand up in the huge pots).

There are even more "hidden" factors that impact overall results (just one more might be the mix of players you frequently play with and how your particular styles interact).

All in all it seems to support an argument for playing at a level which is rather conservative vis-a-vis your bankroll, and more so than most educated players might think.

[J_V]

This really isn't what happened. He made it beating people heads up at all limits for a long time. But he doesn't play much else well.

[Felix_Nietsche]

I don't buy this..... Lee Jones (PokerStars) told me the they "investigated", Neverwin because of some questions they had about him.

Lee did not provide any other details and I did not ask...

[Felix_Nietsche]

oh....and from Lee's response he seemed like he was satisfied about the investigation's results.

[stinkypete]

i think you're talking about neverlose.

[MRBAA]

This is exactly right. And explains why variance is so hard to really quantify. It's not just how often you get dealt strong hands, it's how often and how much you win with them. And this interacts with factors that are in your control -- such as game selection and avoiding tilt.

[BradleyT]

Nice post man.

I was playing B&amp;M $5/$10 HE with a kill. This was a kill pot so it was $10/$20 (I normally play $2/$4/kill occasionally the $5/$10). I had KQo and 1 EP limper and then folded around to me. I raised and the kill (SB) called as did the limper.

The flop was QQJ. SB bet, EP called, I raised, sb called, ep folded.

Turn was an 8. SB checks, I bet, he raises, I re-raise, he calls.

River was a 9. He checks, I bet, he thinks for a minute and calls.

He flips over JT for a straight.

On the flop -
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kh 973 98.28 17 1.72 0 0.00 0.983
Js Th 17 1.72 973 98.28 0 0.00 0.017

I doubt I'll ever be able to break even money wise in this scenario in my lifetime because it won't come up often enough for me to win 98 times at those stakes.

[edtost]

while you likely won't have this exact 98-2 scenario, you will have lots of other, similar ones.

[BradleyT]

Doubtful.

It was in a limit higher than I normally play ($10/$20)
It was slowass 25 hands/hr B&amp;M
It's going to take tens of thousands of hours for that scenario to repeat itself enough to where I win 98 times and lose .7 more times.

I play B&amp;M about 20-30 hours a month, so can I ever recoup from this situation?

I say no.

[MarkL444]

i had no idea this guy was losing. i just assumed he was tearing it up.

[MMMMMM]

It will take a considerable amount of grinding at $2-$4 to make up for that unlucky stroke at $10-$20. You can get it back financially speaking but probably never again in that exact matchup.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
Doubtful.

It was in a limit higher than I normally play ($10/$20)
It was slowass 25 hands/hr B&amp;M
It's going to take tens of thousands of hours for that scenario to repeat itself enough to where I win 98 times and lose .7 more times.

I play B&amp;M about 20-30 hours a month, so can I ever recoup from this situation?

I say no.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are looking at this the wrong way. You should only look at the point where he was drawing thin, which was the flop. From that point forward you invested $80. $60 of which went in when you were a favorite. If you get the same situation in the future, which is very likely to happen (KQ vs. JT with QQJ flop). You should at a minimum extract a bet on the turn and river most times. If you are doing this at the 2-4 level, that means you will win $8. There will be the occasion JJ or 98 sequence, but as you point out it is unlikely. You only have to find this situation at 2-4 about 8 times to recoup. You should have your money back in 5 years if you don't move up in limits.

[Daliman]

I used to play in a 10/20 home game with neverwin/Dustin. Supposedly even then he was killer SH, but i had no problems with him. Always seemed to be trying to outplay, so i'd just give him rope all the time. His buddy that runs the site now was a much better player from what I remember, and I saw him in LV and he was talking Dustin up like he's a top player now, 100-200 and 200-400. Well, i made a fair amount of $$$ last year; enough to play 100-200 and 200-400 even, but that doesn't make me a 200-400 player.