Pokerstars $215 Hand analysis

[Toro]

Thoughts on this hand, please.

*********** # 12 **************
PokerStars Game #1057978822: Tournament #4179460, Hold'em No Limit - Level I
(10/20) - 2005/01/09 - 16:46:05 (ET)
Table '4179460 71' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: soho kid 11 (2470 in chips)
Seat 2: BigDaddyR (2480 in chips)
Seat 3: Toro85 (3030 in chips)
Seat 4: booksei (2550 in chips)
Seat 5: smalldog (2500 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: Mr. Buckey (1980 in chips)
Seat 7: rompas (2550 in chips)
Seat 8: Berkshire (2500 in chips)
Seat 9: elrobobo (2280 in chips)
booksei: posts small blind 10
smalldog: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Toro85 [Ac As]
Mr. Buckey: folds
Toro85 is connected
rompas: folds
Berkshire: folds
elrobobo: calls 20
soho kid 11 has timed out
soho kid 11: folds
soho kid 11 is sitting out
BigDaddyR: folds
Toro85: raises 80 to 100
booksei: folds
smalldog: folds
elrobobo: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [Ah 8d 2c]
elrobobo: checks
Toro85: bets 120
elrobobo: calls 120
*** TURN *** [Ah 8d 2c] [Th]
elrobobo: checks
Toro85: checks
*** RIVER *** [Ah 8d 2c Th] [4c]
elrobobo: bets 200
Toro85: raises ???

Question #1: What hand or hands do you put my opp on?
Question #2: How much do you raise here?

[37offsuit]

It looks like a semi-bluff by him, my guess would be a pair between the T and the A. The only other thing I could think of is a set looking to check raise the turn (where you checked behind), but with either of these I'm trying to figure out how much to raise that he might call with his semi-bluff but also looks weak enough for him to either try to steal this one by pushing. If he has a set or the dreaded 35o, he's going to let you know by reraising.

So I might reraise a low, yet strange amount, like 315 or so.

[Mammux]

I'd overbet, hoping that he has a set or two pair with ax. Whether this is better than a small bet depends on your read of him. Will he call you with a mediocre hand if he thinks you are bluffing?

-Magnus

[schwza]

if he's any good, i think it's probably 88. i'd be a little surprised to see a limp-call with A8s or A2s, but it's possible. if he's bad, could be a hand like 78 or 99.

i think the biggest question here is what hands the villain will reraise with. i can't imagine him not reraising 88, so the chips are going in there anyway. with aces up, though, he might just call a river raise. if he has AQ/AJ, me will probably call a small river raise, but i don't think those hands are too likely. i think you should make a reasonably big raise to charge two pair, and maybe you'll get lucky and get a loose call from AJ.

he has T1860 left and the pot is 670 (870 with your call). making it 700 to go seems about right.

[Toro]

OK, it looks like we're all on about the same wave length. I put him on either 2 pair or a lower set and wanted to bet enough to charge him and also give him an opportunity to re-raise if he had a set of eights or tens. So the hand continued thusly:

Toro85: raises 400 to 600
elrobobo: raises 900 to 1500

Anyone slow down here or do you get it all in?

[partygirluk]

The only thing you are behind is 35 right? I am happy to get it all in.

[Sam T.]

If he's calling a pre-flop raise to play 3-5 heads up, he's going to need your chips. Easy call.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone slow down here or do you get it all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

ANY raise you make at that point is pretty much going to put him all in, and if he has a set or two pair, he's going to consider himself pot committed and call.

If the real point of this is "can you put him on the straight" after he reraises you, well, I just can't do it.

[Toro]

OK, here's the end of it:

Toro85: raises 1310 to 2810 and is all-in
elrobobo: calls 560 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Toro85: shows [Ac As] (three of a kind, Aces)
elrobobo: shows [3h 5h] (a straight, Ace to Five)
elrobobo collected 4590 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4590 | Rake 0
Board [Ah 8d 2c Th 4c]
Seat 1: soho kid 11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: BigDaddyR folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Toro85 (button) showed [Ac As] and lost with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 4: booksei (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: smalldog (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Mr. Buckey folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: rompas folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Berkshire folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: elrobobo showed [3h 5h] and won (4590) with a straight, Ace to Five

I pretty much knew that everyone would agree with the way I played this hand. So why did I post it? To sneak in a bad beat? No, not at all. The reason I posted this hand is because, and maybe this belongs in the psychology forum, is that every six months or so I slow play a monster like this and it seems every time I do, I get it stuck up my asss.

Then what I tend to do is play everything fast and not get full value from my big hands. So I guess what I'm looking for is assurance that it's correct to try and milk hands such as this as I did.

[adanthar]

If he called 120 with a gutshot he's going to call xxx more than that with a flush draw added to it, where x is more than you're going to bet.

No biggie; you're losing the hand anyway.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
Then what I tend to do is play everything fast and not get full value from my big hands. So I guess what I'm looking for is assurance that it's correct to try and milk hands such as this as I did.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one aspect of my game that I'm in the midst of adjusting. I used to play my big hands very fast so that even an idiot knew he shouldn't chase. I started rethinking this when I read a post by Gergey that encouraged value-betting when you're ahead on the grounds that you'll need those chips down the road. The real turning point came in Harrington when he pointed out that if you overbet, and your opponent folds, he is making the right decision. The goal, of course, is to convince your opponents to make the wrong decision (as this yahoo did on two different occasions), because every time they do so it is +ev for you.

So rather than offering opponents absurdly incorrect odds (and making nothing more than what's in the pot), I'm trying to give them modestly incorrect odds, and hope they come along for the ride. Will occasionally I get caught as you did? Sure. Cards happen.

One question that I am still trying to figure out is how to factor implied odds into all of this, because if they make a mathematically incorrect call, hit their flush/str8, and then bust me, their call wasn't incorrect, was it? I guess I just need to get better at folding when the drawing hands chase and catch.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
If he called 120 with a gutshot he's going to call xxx more than that with a flush draw added to it, where x is more than you're going to bet.

No biggie; you're losing the hand anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. If he called the flop bet, he's calling whatever you bet on the turn, unless you do something extreme like set him all-in, in which case you're not getting full value out of your hand, the times that he has nothing and folds.

I still like the way you played it, and I really like that turn check against aggressive opponents. Hell, I like it against a lot of opponents on that board.

[Ian J]

It looks as if your opponent flopped a set. He calls the 120 on a totally drawless board, I don't see what else he could have. 78, 89, T8 all make a llittle sense. A8 is a possibility but card distribution makes it unlikely.

I think you should have bet the turn, as it did bring a few draws. For instance, if he has the 8h9h, a turn check is a fair mistake by you. However, I still think he has a set. On the river, I would make it around 600 to go.

[Ian J]

[ QUOTE ]
If he called 120 with a gutshot he's going to call xxx more than that with a flush draw added to it, where x is more than you're going to bet.

No biggie; you're losing the hand anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally disagree with this statement. The fact that he would call a bet on the turn is totally relevant. Toro made a mistake in this hand by checking the turn. His opponent didn't have a chance to make a mistake (calling) on the turn because he was never afforded the opportunity. Thinking this way is just results oriented.

[freewillig]

no way I back down now....only one hand beats you and if he called you pre-flop with 35, then he's got balls as big as church bells.

[freewillig]

I would consider this a slow play mistake if you hadn't raised pre-flop. The rest of the play was fine, imo.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I totally disagree with this statement. The fact that he would call a bet on the turn is totally relevant. Toro made a mistake in this hand by checking the turn. His opponent didn't have a chance to make a mistake (calling) on the turn because he was never afforded the opportunity. Thinking this way is just results oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Now putting him on a hand which improved when a T of hearts hit the turn...*that's* pretty results oriented thinking.

I'm letting him make the bigger mistake of betting his trash into my set on the river every single time. The only point behind my first post is that, since the T did improve his hand, the slowplay made no difference - he'd still have called.

[Ian J]

[ QUOTE ]

Not really. Now putting him on a hand which improved when a T of hearts hit the turn...*that's* pretty results oriented thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't put him on a hand that the Th improved. 8h9h is a possibility though and not betting if he happens to have that hand is a mistake.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm letting him make the bigger mistake of betting his trash into my set on the river every single time. The only point behind my first post is that, since the T did improve his hand, the slowplay made no difference - he'd still have called.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're still thinking unclearly. If Toro bets the turn and doesn't give him odds to call if he has a draw, then the villain is making a mistake by calling, period. The fact that the he sucked out is irrelevant. The fact that "he would have called anyway" is also irrelevant.

Another reason to bet the turn is that if he does have the set that it so seems like he has based on the flop call, then why not just bet the turn and get the money in? I just don't see a whole lot of reasoning behind checking the turn.

[Toro]

Suppose he has an Ace with a kicker he's not crazy about? By checking the turn, I give him a chance to pair his kicker. Or suppose he has a big pair like JJ or QQ, I give him a chance to hit his set.

Bottom line: I just couldn't put him on 35s. Look at that flop again. You couldn't ask for a more uncoordinated flop. When I bet that flop, the last hand I would have put him on was the one he had. There were no danger signals at all going off in my head. I didn't think there was any possible hand he could have that he could reasonably catch up with.

But I wanted him to catch up a little so I could get max value, it just didn't work out this time.

[Ian J]

Toro,

The way you played the hand is completely understood by me. I may very well have done the same thing at the tables. I just think once a heart draw comes off on the turn, a bet may be just a little better. It's close either way IMO.

The only thing I wanted to mention was when Adanthar said "he would have called anyway" and therefore sucked out anyway I thought this was incorrect thinking. Surely if you knew his hole cards you would be betting close to the size of the pot. If your opponent called a pot sized or close to it bet I think we can all agree that he's the one making the mistake and not you for letting him see the river for free. Again, this is all based on the remote possibility that he turned a heart draw.

[adios]

When you get the action you did on the river you have to ask yourself what did my opponent put me on? Up until the river you played the hand like you had KK, QQ, JJ (possibly TT) or slowplaying AA. When you give some action on the river your opponent can't possibly think you're doing it with KK,QQ or JJ and must have put you on a hand that you slow played. In this particular hand your oppenent can't even be entertaining the thought that you'd have an overpair because an overpair isn't possible. I think you should have bet the turn but I also think you made a huge mistake on the river by giving all that action when your opponent had to put you on a very good hand.

[Toro]

Lets assume you checked the turn for the sake of argument. What are you saying you would have done on the River?

a. Just call his 200 bet
b. Raise to 600 as I did but then fold to the re-reraise or call the re-raise.

Because my only 2nd guess on the hand is the last raise I put in without the nuts. This extra 500+ would have left me in a lot better shape if I hadn't committed it.

[JaBlue]

I think the real question is why you didn't raise the turn... The pot isn't that big right now, and with the nuts you want to give yourself a chance to win a big pot. If he has total crap, you probably won't get much out of him on the river. If he has a set or two pair you'll get played back at right now, building the pot. Other than that, you're not really giving yourself a chance to win a good-sized pot against his medium strength range of hands like AQ AJ etc. I would raise 250 here, making the pot potentially 900. Then I would bet 500-600 on the turn if checked to. I think you make a lot more money from the mediocre hands this way. If he's very strong, you'll get it all in through any course of action. This way you give him a chance to pay you off with hands that aren't incredibly strong.

[adios]

It's easy to say after the fact. Since I played the hand weakly on the turn I would have to entertain the possibility that he's bluffing. I can honestly say that I'd be wary since the straight card fell. With that said I can't see how putting in a lot of action here is +EV. I would have probably called the $200 since I know that if he gives me action after a reraise I'm clearly in trouble. I would have never gone all in the way you did. If for some reason I would have raised his river bet, I would probably call his reraise if I could have a fair amount of chips left.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I can honestly say that I'd be wary since the straight card fell.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any card that does not pair the board is a straight card.

IMHO, not willing to go all-in on the river against a typical player at the early stages of a $215 on-line MTT, with this hand (regarldess now of the turn action, and maybe especially since it was checked) is losing some serious potential EV. That's my expirience, at least. People will pay you here with hands that are very far from the nuts.

[37offsuit]

We have a 4Xbb preflop raise called by an ep limper for a pot of t230.

Flop [Ah 8d 2c]

We have a half pot bet check called on the flop. We know that the villian did this with a gut shot draw from the results.

Turn [Ah 8d 2c] [Th]

Check check - this is a debateable play, but really, what hands are we putting the villian on? Any hand he's slow playing we're not only ahead of, he's drawing either dead or to 1 out. The complete range of hands that can draw out are sets (1 out) flush draws and a bunch of different gut shot straight draws possible. With the A of hearts out, there are very few hands of this nature that will call preflop. On the flop, most of these hands would be calling with just runner runner draws, since they'd have to figure the preflop raiser for an A. Even if they didn't, they're still very weak draws that would often lose. Still, these people call with the strangest holdings. The check on the turn enduces a weaker hand to bluff on the river. If the flush card comes or one of the higher straight cards, maybe you can save some chips by just calling a bet out on the river rather than raising.

If one of the many non scary cards comes off, you have a whole new opportunity on the river, either to pick off a bluff that would have folded to continued aggression or to put out a value bet that might be bluffed against. The opponent might now figure their set or two pair is good.

The final board is [Ah 8d 2c Th] [4c]

The player bets out t200 into t470 chip pot. We have the second nuts with the only hand beating us being 3x5x. The entire line of play is very consistent with a bluff, AT, A8, 22, 88, tt, JJ, QQ, KK and maybe even 44. So you reraise for value. You're looking to get all his chips in there. It sucks that this player was that aweful and got lucky, but the line used is a very good one that will win a lot more chips than it loses.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I wanted to mention was when Adanthar said "he would have called anyway" and therefore sucked out anyway I thought this was incorrect thinking. Surely if you knew his hole cards you would be betting close to the size of the pot. If your opponent called a pot sized or close to it bet I think we can all agree that he's the one making the mistake and not you for letting him see the river for free. Again, this is all based on the remote possibility that he turned a heart draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but, like, 98% of the time he doesn't turn one of those.

My first post was just a consolation post.