SF at CHI

I think the spread is CHI -2.


The 9ers have the #1 ground game in the NFC at 158 yds per game. On the other hand, Chi and SD are neck and neck for #2 vs. the rush. (Bal is #1). Will Chicago be able to stop the #1 NFC rushing attack? I believe they will. Urlacher is a badass and will probably cause a little havoc on the line. The 9er run game is good but they haven't run into a great run stuffing team yet. Chicago will slow down the run considerably.


On the other hand, there are only four teams who have given up more yards through the air than Chicago. I look to see Chicago stopping the 9er running game but getting TORCHED by the 9er passing game. I mean torched. Chi will CERTAINLY stuff the run but with Garcia in the pocket, he will make plays, he'll get loose and scramble, and make some big plays down field.


One the other side of the ball, let's look at how the 9ers might handle the Chicago offense.


Despite the fact that their corners look a lot better this year, the 9ers give up only 3 yards less per game than CHI does through the air. I believe this stat is partially skewed by playing one game against STL. That will hurt anyone's pass defense numbers. But still, it looks like a vulnerability. On the ground, they give up 98 yds per game, 20 more than CHI, but actually 11th in the league. Around the top 3rd. Not terrible, but not impressive. How will Chicago fare against this defense?


I believe that without Marcus Robinson, the passing threat from CHI goes WAY down, way way down. Marcus Robingson is one of those guys that a team really just can't do without. His loss is so crucial to Chicago that I expect a serious downturn from this team, similar to the recent Denver downturn due to the loss of McAffrey.


Chicago's passing game is ranked 22, and they just lost their prime producer, their main threat. I think this will allow the 9er secondary to really smother the other targets. With the passing game less of a threat, the 9ers can stack the box up front and put pressure on the QB and stuff the run. The cascading effect will probably shut down the fragile CHI offense.


So how will this game play out? I think Chicago will stuff the run early, and the 9ers will take to the air and torch the CHI secondary for a couple TD's early. As long as the 9ers can contain the CHI offense, I believe the 9ers will stay out in front as they take to the ground in the second half and control the ball with some running against a tired out Chicago defense who will have been on the field far too long. However, they might just keep passing and run up the score.


The scrappy bears are going to have their hands full.


I don't know if I think this game is good enough to bet on, but I DO believe this is a good matchup for the 9ers, and I'm considering it. They are strong where Chicago is weak, and they matchup fine with Chicago's strengths. Other than Cincy, I don't believe Chicago has faced a real passing threat yet, and they STILL have poor stats vs. the pass. It could be real bad for them this Sunday vs. the 9ers.


Another thing to look at is that the 9ers are playing so confidently. I really see a difference in this team from the dejected, slump-shouldered unit that left the field each game during the last two years. These guys are pumped, confident, energetic and they believe in themselves. The defense is hustling and making plays, and they have some serious speed. The 9ers are coming off a bye-week thinking "wild card". That is a 100% turnaround from last year.


The big questions mark is how tough will CHI play at home? They've had only one home game this year and they did pretty well vs. a mediocre Min. That's really my only reservation in picking the 9ers to win this game.


natedogg

"On the other hand, there are only four teams who have given up more yards through the air than Chicago. "


true, but....passing yards can be real deceptive.

for example...CINCY :


Kitna threw for 244 yards. doesn't look bad, but when you consider the following : he was only 19/46, CHI had a lead all game long, Kitna was chucking it up all 2nd Half. that 244 yards doesn't mean much compared to other 244 passing yard games.


Confidence : both SF and CHI are both sky high in confidence. this should cancel each other off.


I like CHI due to many other factors.

1. SF is more likely to be the media/bettor loved team than CHI because they are an offensive team, whereas CHI is a defensive team. Media/bettors love offensive teams (see IND, STL, DEN). So it seems more likely that SF is overrated than CHI is.


2. SF crushed CHI in week 16 last year 17-0. It was a humiliating loss for CHI. R.W. McQuarters was horrible with the 9ers..he's playing well now with CHI. CHI's got as revenge issues.

two other things :


1. I think the key is how Garcia passes. If they pass short all the time (making it like a running game), trying to bypass the two monster Defensive Tackles, and trying to take it outside, they will be stopped. The speed of the linebackers on CHI is too much. You can't run sweeps on them (see how the sweeps takes out the DT of the game plan too), so that should mean the short passing, pseudo running game will be stopped as well. The way for 49ers to beat CHI is to throw long. And unfortunatley for SF, that's not their passing strength. Terrell is great, but he's not a deep threat as far as catching it deep...he's a deep threat only because of YAC. So, that makes J.J. Stokes & Tai Streets real key players in my mind, as well as the CHI corners : RW McQuarters and Walt Harris. If the 9ers can somehow get deep successfully early, then they can stretch the defense and start passing the short game. But I don't see SF being successful.


2. How tough is the D-line and linebackers for the 9ers? They've really held their own this year so far, and are showing they are becoming a decent defense. But it will be interesting as the Bears will try to jam it on the 9ers, and they will have to respond. Which I think the 9ers are more than likely to respond well


Makes me think that the Under 40 may be good also. This could be a very low scoring game. Prediction : 17-13 Bears.