SSHE - Loose games - no connectors?

[binions]

With JT-54 unsuited, you are getting right at 5:1 to flop:

2 pair
3 of a kind
4 of a kind
boat
straight
8 out straight draw

Straights are so hidden and make so much money. I don't understand why these hands aren't recommended for "loose games" defined as 6-8 people seeing the flop.

[thirddan]

unsuited hands lose much value because they give suited hands better implied odds...also suited connectors offer two ways to win (straight/flush) while unsuited only one way...so unsuited hands need to have much more high card value (AQ/AK/KQ) to be of value...

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
unsuited hands lose much value because they give suited hands better implied odds...also suited connectors offer two ways to win (straight/flush) while unsuited only one way...so unsuited hands need to have much more high card value (AQ/AK/KQ) to be of value...

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you are right. That's why it's 2.9:1 to flop those hands I listed plus a flush or flush draw with a suited connector.

Doesn't take away the roughly 5:1 odds I quoted above. Bottom line, I play unsuited 0-gap connectors in large multiway pots in position. Period. It's a crime not to, and the book says don't play them at all.

[destro]

[ QUOTE ]

Bottom line, I play unsuited 0-gap connectors in large multiway pots in position. Period. It's a crime not to, and the book says don't play them at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious. What limits do you play? Do you make money on these calls? Perhaps some PT stats.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious. What limits do you play? Do you make money on these calls? Perhaps some PT stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already asked him for such stats. Or to play this way and to post his stats. Basically, the question was dodged.

Note to binions: Why start a new thread about this?

[Lost Wages]

2.9:1 to flop those hands I listed

You might want to recheck your math. There are (50*49*48)/(3*2) = 19,600 psiible flops. Given an off suit max stretch connector e.g. JTo where "X" is not a J or T:

2 Pair
Flops of JTX = 3*3*44 = 396
Probability = 396/19600 = 2.02%

3 of a kind
Flops of JJX = ((3*2)/2)*44 = 132
Flops of TTX = ((3*2)/2)*44 = 132
Probability = (132 + 132)/19600 = 1.35%

4 of a kind
Flops of JJJ = 1
Flops of TTTY = 1
Probability = 2/19600 = 0.01%

boat
Flops of JJT = ((3*2)/2)*3 = 9
Flops of TTJ = ((3*2)/2)*3 = 9
Probability = 18/19600 = 0.09%

straight
JTo wil make a straight with flops of AKQ, KQ9, Q98 and 987.
There are 4*4*4 = 64 combinations each for a total of 256 straights.
Probability = 256/19,600 = 1.31%

8 out straight draw
JTo will make an open end straight draw with flops of KQX, Q9X or 98X, where "X" is one of the cards that does not complete the straight. KQ can make 16 combinations which can combine with 52-(2 in your hand)-(4 aces)-(4 nines)-(4 Kings)-(4 Queens) = 34 other cards for a total of 16 * 34 = 544 flops. In addition, KKQ can make 4*3/2*4 = 24 flops and QQK can make 24. So KQX where "X" does not complete the straight can make 592 flops. Total flops = 3*592 = 1776
Probability = 1776/19,600 = 9.06%

JTo will make an eight out double gutshot straight draw with flops of AQ8 and K97. There are 4*4*4 = 64 flops each for a total of 128 double gutshots.
Probability = 128/19,600 = 0.653%

Total probability of one of the listed hands = 14.49%
Odds = 5.9:1

Lost Wages

[binions]

Good work. It's been awhile since I have done the math. I know I did not factor out KKQ/KQQ flops and the like. Neither of us factored in KQX flops that were suited against you.

We got the same answer on 2 pair or better. I had over 11% for 8-out straight draws. So did Poker Stove. But I will re-check.

By the way, I had 5.05:1 to flop 2 pair or better or 8 out straight draw. That 2.9:1 referred to max stretch suited connectors, adding in flushes and flush draws. Again, I did not subtract out paired boards in that calculation.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]

8 out straight draw
JTo will make an open end straight draw with flops of KQX, Q9X or 98X, where "X" is one of the cards that does not complete the straight. KQ can make 16 combinations which can combine with 52-(2 in your hand)-(4 aces)-(4 nines)-(4 Kings)-(4 Queens) = 34 other cards for a total of 16 * 34 = 544 flops. In addition, KKQ can make 4*3/2*4 = 24 flops and QQK can make 24. So KQX where "X" does not complete the straight can make 592 flops. Total flops = 3*592 = 1776
Probability = 1776/19,600 = 9.06%

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

To get the number of open-ended flops for JT which include KQ, you multiply (4/50 * 4/49 * 40/48) divided by (3*2*1). The 40 includes all the cards left in the deck that will not complete the straight, including the other 3 kings and 3 queens that pair the board.

You get 640/19600, not 592/19600. Your error was dividing the KKQ and KQQ flops by 2 in your separate calculation.

PS Probability of 8-out straight draw with no paired board and no 3 flush flop: 1668/19,600 = 8.51%

[Lost Wages]

No, Petriv got it wrong. See this thread. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1511828&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

Lost Wages

[binions]

Makes perfect sense once you work it out.

For every suited KQ, there are 3 other Ks for a total of 12 combos on suited boards.

For rainbow KKQ boards, each Q will have 3 rainbow flops without double counting for a total of 12. (Qh will have Kd+Ks, Kd+Kc, and Ks+Kc)

12+12 = 24.

Thanks, and my apologies. Learn something new every day.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
3 of a kind
Flops of JJX = ((3*2)/2)*44 = 132
Flops of TTX = ((3*2)/2)*44 = 132
Probability = (132 + 132)/19600 = 1.35%


[/ QUOTE ]

I've never been good at this type of math - why do you divide by 2 here? I feel stupid not knowing this and will remain stupid if I don't ask.