I've been hating AK lately. Make this laydown? [Archive]

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Jon34

01-09-2005, 10:56 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($406.70)
MP2 ($154)
CO ($361.60)
Button ($118.60)
SB ($128.75)
BB ($256.35)
UTG ($147.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises to $16, Hero calls $16, MP2 folds, CO calls $16, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: ($54) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero raises to $100, CO raises to $345.6, UTG folds, Hero ???

Here is my thinking thus far:
I have been struggling mightily with AK lately, and since I've also only recently moved up to 2/4, I'm not totally comfortable reraising AK yet, especially without a read, as there are a number very tight, AA-KK-QQ-AK only raisers on these tables. I know this is a weak/passive play, but after an UTG raise from an unknown who may be one of these tighties, I'm not sure if I want to play AK in a Reraised pot. Also I'm in position and suited, so not reraising isn't so awful.
On the flop the UTG player stalled for a while, then underbet a two tone board, which screamed to me of a weak play by JJ/QQ/KK. I don't particularly like the spades, so I figured a smallish raise will push out the draws and UTG will fold his QQ or whatever. Then the 3rd player pushes. Ugh.

At first I was really scared, as AK is usually not good as 1 pair unimproved for all your chips. But there wasn't a 2nd broadway card, and in a raised pot A7 and A3 are really not likely at this level. 33 and 77 are my only concerns, but to me a set would likely smooth call, to induce UTG to call, as my hand is fairly transparent as a fairly strong ace (but not neccessarily AK, as I didn't reraise preflop). This meant to me that there was a decent chance that I was ahead, as the push seemed a little strange. I know some people push sets in his spot, but getting money in on the turn seems the more common play.

A push with a flush draw is a possible holding as well by a ballsy player. He has fold equity as my hand is likely a good ace, but not much more.

What do you do here? AK has been killing me lately, though usually out of position or just on miss boards when I raised preflop. I've been getting check called down or check raised in position, and called down out of position with it on miss boards. I onlyI don't think my PT stats with it are too significant yet, but its not one of my best hands to say the least.
Thanks for the help,

Jon

PoBoy321

01-09-2005, 11:15 PM

Any reads on CO? This seems like a very bad play by any hand that beats you. If CO has 77 33 or AA (very unlikely, since he probably would have reraised in order get his hand HU against UTG), he is losing a lot of value against a strong hand like AK, AQ or a flush draw (although I think that a flush draw is unlikely because KQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif is a tough hand to play against a UTG raise. I have a feeling that UTG is going to fold to the reraise, but you should call and expect a split pot.

EDIT: If CO is a 2+2er, this is an easy fold. Damn you, Wayfare, damn you.

TrailofTears

01-09-2005, 11:16 PM

I think you are up against a set. You say that they would have smoothcalled, but I don't think the set is interested in giving a free (not free, but you know) card to any spade draws or higher PP. If I had the set here, I would push, as giving a free card might be disastrous for a low set. I would lay this hand down, but maybe that's too tight. I just don't see any fear from this guy in a pot that was raised PF and bet/raised on the flop. He can't possibly make this play with only a high ace. Also, in his case, if he has the spade draw, he might just call to bring in other players for implied odds and whatnot. I think there are more brains behind this push than balls.

- ToT

Autocratic

01-10-2005, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Any reads on CO? This seems like a very bad play by any hand that beats you. If CO has 77 33 or AA (very unlikely, since he probably would have reraised in order get his hand HU against UTG), he is losing a lot of value against a strong hand like AK, AQ or a flush draw (although I think that a flush draw is unlikely because KQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif is a tough hand to play against a UTG raise. I have a feeling that UTG is going to fold to the reraise, but you should call and expect a split pot.

EDIT: If CO is a 2+2er, this is an easy fold. Damn you, Wayfare, damn you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree on one aspect. Everyone hand that beats you is still fearing the flush draw. Lay 'er down, I'd say.

creedofhubris

01-10-2005, 01:33 AM

Wow, this is fearless play from CO, raising both the preflop raiser and another player who shows strength. It's either another AK, a set, or a monster draw like 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

I think this is folding time, unless you think CO is terrible or superaggressive.

Jon34

01-10-2005, 09:36 AM

I think I made a bad call here against the field, but then again, as this is a play a lot of people make with a set. That said, it seemed a little fishy, and maybe I just couldn't fold after pot commiting myself.

Despite the bad call, the turn was another 7, the river was the King of spades, Mr. Allin had AQ, and MHIG for a nice double up.

I think the reason this worked out was because I didn't reraise with AK. Lately I've been trying that, especially out of position or in a raised pot against a tight player.

Its hands like this that make laying down AK/KK/AA really tough.

Ok guys, my flight for vegas leaves in few hours, so I won't see any responses til I return. Thanks for the help,

Jon

BobboFitos

01-10-2005, 01:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I made a bad call here against the field, but then again, as this is a play a lot of people make with a set. That said, it seemed a little fishy, and maybe I just couldn't fold after pot commiting myself.

Despite the bad call, the turn was another 7, the river was the King of spades, Mr. Allin had AQ, and MHIG for a nice double up.

I think the reason this worked out was because I didn't reraise with AK. Lately I've been trying that, especially out of position or in a raised pot against a tight player.

Its hands like this that make laying down AK/KK/AA really tough.

Ok guys, my flight for vegas leaves in few hours, so I won't see any responses til I return. Thanks for the help,

Jon

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless CO was very very bad I think this was a very very bad call

TakeMeToTheRiver

01-10-2005, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Unless CO was very very bad I think this was a very very bad call

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. It is a tough call, but not a bad one. There is now a pot of about $540 and hero needs to call $245 -- getting well over 2 to 1. What cards could CO have that beat hero?

AA -- highly unlikely.
A7 or A3 -- Then CO is very very bad and got very very lucky.
77/33 -- possibly -- hate losing to a set but can't fear it behind every bet.

What else can he have?
KK/QQ/JJ? I have seen it done... takes a lot of balls.
Flush draw? Possible (KQ or other suited connectors).
AK/AQ/AJ? Many players would call a raise (with a second caller) with these hands.

Based solely on pre-flop play, the second group is far more likely than the first group. The all-in bet would tilt the balance closer to 50/50. But even at a little less than 50/50, hero is getting the odds to call.

Reason not to call?
Bankroll concerns -- but that is often what the raiser hopes for here -- NL players at this level understand folding equity.
A fantastic read on the re-raiser -- very difficult online.

BobboFitos

01-10-2005, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
KK/QQ/JJ? I have seen it done... takes a lot of balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

If balls equal lack of brains, then yes.

[ QUOTE ]
Flush draw? Possible (KQ or other suited connectors).
AK/AQ/AJ? Many players would call a raise (with a second caller) with these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The ace of trump is out, therefore it's less likely people will have a flush draw. Although it's possible, as cold calling a bet than a raise with a flush draw is bad. But I think villain flips up XXs a small % of the time. Problem is, even when they do, you're only 2-1 to win.

[ QUOTE ]
AK/AQ/AJ? Many players would call a raise (with a second caller) with these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you split with AK, and as I said, he has to be really bad to push with AQ and AJ. So if he's really bad, I'd call, because the times he has AQ and AJ justify the times he has a set.

Kaz The Original

01-10-2005, 03:57 PM

54s 56s both have gotshots. 33 and 77 are the ONLY 'real' hands that beat you. I would call thinking he could have KQs, 54, 56 etc. If there's no flush draw, this is a much tougher laydown.

Jon34

01-15-2005, 12:08 AM

Just got back from vegas (well, got back like 12 hours ago, just woke up though), it was a blast and I'll probably post a trip report in B&M or something either tonight or tomorrow or something.
Thanks for all of the replies. I think without the flush draw this is actually closer to a laydown as the possible hands I want to call are reduced drastically. The possibilities become only A7/A3/weaker Ace/33/77, so it becomes closer to a fold.
This has seemed like the kind of hand I've lost money with in the past (to 77 or 33 usually) but this hand proves that a call isn't always as bad as previously thought if you don't have a read of a player being notably good. There are definitely others that against with I would lay down AK 8 days a week, but with out a note on the guy, this call isn't completely wrong.