Question about Cowboys

[Skeesix]

In a No-Limit Cash game, how big of a bet would it take for you to lay down KK preflop?

edit: It seemed obvious at first, but you may assume no other callers and no other significant bets.

[sk8rdude12000]

idk...to lay down KK it would take a hell of a read on opponent to lay down KK because i wouldny lay it down to AA. so they can bet w/e they have preflop and unless i really feel they have AA i wont lay it down...this is of course in a NL Cash game..tourney has other factors you have to consider

[dachord]

Why would you fold KK on the preflop at all, regardless of the betting? AA has only a slightly higher probability of winning, so if I 'read' the other player as having the bullets, I still wouldn't fold. Any other pair could hit a set, but so what? So could the KK. I'd raise at least 4x the blind, if the other player wanted to raise, I'd call.

[Vince Young]

[ QUOTE ]
AA has only a slightly higher probability of winning, so if I 'read' the other player as having the bullets, I still wouldn't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Please explain.

[Marm]

[ QUOTE ]
AA has only a slightly higher probability of winning,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, only if they are up against seperate random hands. Heads up, AAvsKK, AA is roughly a 4-1 favorite.

[Michael Davis]

They need a new QB.

-Michael

[invast]

[ QUOTE ]
They need a new QB.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

[K C]

You don't want KK up against AA. It's not just a slight underdog /images/graemlins/smile.gif

This is going to depend almost entirely upon the player. And you need to make sure you are pretty damn certain before you lay down the kings. A tight player who very rarely goes big pre-flop, and usually needs kings or aces to go this big, is something you're going to need to think on.

The most important thing to realize here, in reference to the poll, is that it always needs to be a combination of the size of the bet and the tendencies of the player that determine these things. The bet size alone doesn't really tell us much.

KC
http://kingcobrapoker.com

[ACW]

I think if you don't call here it's >99% likely it's because you're playing too high for your bankroll and <1% likely because you've got a genuinely good read.

[dachord]

Well, I guess I messed that one up. After reading the other posts, I sat down with my calculator and soon realized that I was mathematically incorrect. By my math, the AA will win over the KK about 60-80% of the time (depends on number of other players, etc). Ok, so this is more than a "slightly" higher probability, but I stand by the rest of my post. Even if I read my opponent and put them on AA, I'm still going to go heads up with them. I suppose that there are people out there that "gamble" based ENTIRELY on mathematical odds, I'm just not one of them. Yes, sometimes I lose (show me someone that's never lost). I hope that this "explains" my rationale. /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[jojobinks]

even if you know they have AA? so you're happy with a 20% chance to win the pot?

[dachord]

I'm really having to defend my postion here, so I had to do a little digging. I play live ring games 2-5 nights a week. I started keeping a few notes on what I consider significant plays. I have been beat on AA roughly 20% of the time; twice to pocket queens, three times to pocket kings. The others were what I consider bad beats (a straight, flush on the river, etc.) I have won with pocket kings against pocket aces 18 out of 38 times. That's about 47%. So how am I beating the odds? Because there are too many random probabilities that only a math whiz can accurately calculate. So, that's where I'm at in my thinking on this thread. I'm not Lansing, so I won't sit here and belittle everyone while espousing my poker superiority. I learn a lot by reading these posts every day, and perhaps will one day change my stance on this matter. Let's hear your argument /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[The Truth]

the odds of kk beating AA is nearly the same as 77 beating AA or 66 beating 88.
Your sample size is too small thats how you are beating the odds.
If you know they have aces its an easy fold, but how often can you accurately make that read?

[dachord]

You make a good point, my sample size is too small. You obviously paid attention in your statistics class /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'll probably change my position on this after 10,000 more hands. In the mean time...

[AncientPC]

Player dependent.