Attention All Conspiracy Theorists

Has it ever occurred that you might be losing because you actually are a losing player? Aren't your conspiracy theories about online poker really a cover up for your inability to win long-term? Is it really that difficult for you to accept responsiblity for your own inability to win?


I've been through losing periods on PP before and they are just like those that I experience at B&Ms. Nothing unusual. The flops miss my hand like everyone else. I'm sucked out on by 7-2 off holding for a gutshot draw (and this is on an 8-16 tables). And I've seen truckloads of quads and straight flushes. And this can go on for weeks and weeks. Still, I can contain the damage in spite of bad beat after bad beat after bad beat (once again please!) after bad beat.


And I play with new names every week - who (when I'm running bad) suck out on my hands with inferior holdings. I see them for a couple of days and then they disappear forever - undoubtedly to the growing casualty list - some of whom I'm sure are posting the cospiracy theories I read on this site.


I'm sure there are probably some less than honest people behind the operations. But the upside for honest operations is too great to jeopardize for some dishonest action at the tables. Add the numbers up. Simple math. Far more profit in honest operations.


Try accepting responsibility, its the only way you will really start to learn.

How do you explain winning conspiracy theorists?


Although you didn't say, I gather you are up at Paradise. Good for you, but is your conclusion that Paradise is on the square based on what could have been dumb luck on your part? Would that not be the same error in thinking that you are accusing losing players of making? I win, therefore the game must be straight.


Tom D

Conspiracy theorists: Do some math. Estimate how much rake Paradise is collecting per day. These guys are sitting on a money printing machine. Cheating entails a risk of getting caught and losing their business. Yes, it's conceivable that greed could lead them to do something that stupid, but they show every sign (first rate software, etc.) of being run by some pretty smart people. Bad beats and losing streaks are inherant in the game of poker. Correct play and adequate bankroll are necessary to play the game profitably. Without correct play, you will lose your money eventually. Without adequate bankroll, the first bad losing streak will wipe you out.


If you really believe that paradise is cheating present some real evidence (large samples, statistical analysis, etc.). Bad beat stories, losing streaks after cashouts and "I've been playing poker for 20 years and I've never seen the cards run like they do on Paradise" are not evidence.

Tom,


The problem is that losing players don't know that they are losing players. It's a little like trying to describe the color blue to someone who is visually impaired (blind).


I am way up for 2 years at PP. Much more for a lifetime of poker in B&Ms. Too much so for me to ever believe that it is "dumb luck". I have suffered my share and maybe a good bit of the next guys in bad runs, bad beats, and bad flops. I once went 4 months at PP in a bad streak, but still managed to contain the damage. Other periods range from 6 weeks to 10 weeks. Things eventually turn around as they always do. I'm sure you will find an excuse for why I win. "It must be dumb luck". The excuse is another way for you to avoid responsibility - thus the conspiracy theory. I don't need to find an excuse. I accept responsibility for my winning AND losing.


The problem is that on just about every table I sit on at PP, all but maybe one or two players make collosal mistakes every round. Some of the mistakes work out in the end. Many don't. Many players barely reach a month before disappearing. Some cronic losers manage to keep throwing money on their losing play and its those players I imagine are writing the conspiracy posts.

Has it ever occurred to you that the FBI tells the truth the majority fo the time? Has it ever occurred to you that you contribute directly to organized crime in playing at these cess pools? Do you care? No, you do not. You are a conspiracy theorist yourself, a true militia nut cake that hates America.

Although you didn't say, I gather you are up at Paradise. Good for you, but is your conclusion that Paradise is on the square based on what could have been dumb luck on your part? Would that not be the same error in thinking that you are accusing losing players of making? I win, therefore the game must be straight.


----


It isn't just "I win, therefore the game must be straight". It's I win with a good rate over a period of 75,000 hands. That's too big to be dumb luck.


Chris

I have won, not lost at Paradise and played and won at Planet. I believe there are problems at Paradise.

While evryone posts regarding strange losses, If you start looking at your wins as well, you might notice that all those players in there with you arent neccessarily bad players. There are many poor players live and on the net, but also some

solid regulars. When we win, we have a tendency

to think that we are playing well, but since the hands are mucked immediately unless there is no betting on the end, we dont get to see whats happening to a greater extent than live games.

The wins are simply as streaky as the losses at

Paradise. There is very little chance of grinding

it out as in live games imo.


oNE thing to think about. If you have a player

or 2 ,artificial or real, who will play to the

river when they hit the flop in any way, even once in 5 plays, you willbe hardpressed to win long run. A very good player/computer programmer friend

of mine says that it is very, very possible to

program a player that can do this. Whether this is happening is just but one possible scenario.

Why would Paradise do this? Well, if they were

to do it, it is virtually undetectable.

I know that the 20-40 games have people who are

winning, but very few below. I won at 5-10 but

left after 5 straight brutal losses, (brutal, not large), which has never happened to me in 10-12 years of winning live play at 10-20, 15-30.

I'm talking about losing 5 sessions in a row.

Very rare for a solid player. No one is going to be able to prove anything, and its unfortunate that any of us feel that something is wrong, as I would love for it to be straight, but unfortunately something doesnt feel right.

So stop saying that anyone questioning the site

is a loser, it simply isnt true, Programmers can do amazing things these days.

75000 hands is not a large sample, I played 26000

hands a month while a Paradise. Your 3-4 months

experience is not meaningful.

Angelina is playing 20-40 and has been there over 2 years winning. That doesnt mean that something isnt happening in the lower games.

75,000 hands isn't meaningful?! A typical B&M casino deals 30 hands or so an hour. You're telling me the equivalent of two and a half thousand hours of casino playtime is totally meaningless? That if I played poker nonstop, with no breaks for eating or sleeping, for over 100 days, you'd consider that too small a sample size? lol. When exactly DOES a B&M casino player earn the right to call themselves a winning player?


Chris

Why would they cheat? They make so much money from rake! Well, one reason to cheat would be that they can make a hell of a lot more money if they did. I'm not saying they do cheat, but they do have plenty of reason to cheat. With that kind of money they could afford to cheat in very advanced ways, we just don't know. If you like playing there, or are making money there, fine, keep playing. If not don't play there. I think that the discussion of whether the game is fair or not is getting really stale. The answer is that we really don't know. If you don't think so there are plenty of other places to play. If you think it's fair it's stupid to try that "why would they cheat" argument, which really holds no water either.

oNE thing to think about. If you have a player

or 2 ,artificial or real, who will play to the

river when they hit the flop in any way, even once in 5 plays, you willbe hardpressed to win long run.


Say WHAT? Have you ever even played poker before? lol.


A very good player/computer programmer friend

of mine says that it is very, very possible to

program a player that can do this.


Well of course it is, lol.


I know that the 20-40 games have people who are

winning, but very few below. I won at 5-10 but

left after 5 straight brutal losses, (brutal, not large), which has never happened to me in 10-12 years of winning live play at 10-20, 15-30.

I'm talking about losing 5 sessions in a row.

Very rare for a solid player.


Not really. It depends on the game.

Count me in as someone winning below 20-40.


Chris

i play on paradise since 20 months,i win about 1,5 bb per hour ,which is nice but not optimal.i also play frequently on another site ,where i win 4 bb per hour.does this indicate that paradise is rigged?no,paradise is just a lot tougher from the opposition,the tables change frequently(players),the speed is very high,so you go easier on tilt and make more mistakes if you play careless.i had 6months last year where i was lucky to be even on paradise,the second half of the year compensated fully and i had quite a run ,even after cashing out twice.sometimes bad runs hit you like an avalanche,in live poker or online-and the better your opponents the more they will make profit on your bad run and tilting and playing worse than normally.on paradise on the upper limits(i play up to 20/40) you have a low flop percentage and highly aggressive play,this adds up to big fluctuations.and 60 to 100(shorthanded) hands an hour are much more than in real life or on slower sites!

gl asteroid

I, too, have won at a “good” rate, and like you, I don’t attribute my success to dumb luck. I have never had to re-buy since my initial deposits at several sites in January and February of 2000. I haven’t played as many hands as you have, but I’ve managed to siphon off winnings pretty regularly everywhere I play, from the beginning. So it appears we have a bit of an impasse; we have drawn opposing conclusions from similar experiences.


It remains, however, that your argument that “the game is straight because I win” is no more valid, perhaps less so, than the argument that “the game is crooked because I lose”. In both cases, the conclusions are not mutually exclusive. It is possible to win and be cheated, and it’s possible to lose and not be cheated.


Tom D

There was uneasiness in the back of my mind while I played at paradise.

The entire online poker experience is TOTALLY dependent upon the faith we have in them providing an honest arena in which to play.As I played there and won,the texture of how things went somehow began setting off alarm bells in the back of my mind.I suppose that they could be entirely on the up & up,but they could (as far as I know)also be doing all sorts of things to manipulate the games too!Who is to say?They know themselves,but they do not provide any outside verification of the fairness of their games!

So what it has boiled down to ,for me,is this;

I no longer have the faith that the games at Paradise are not scammed up!As a result of this I have cashed out and will not play there until something happens to restore my confidence in the legitimacy of their games.

There are other places to play.Party Poker gets my play now and it is a relief to be able to play without those nagging doubts.

I actually kind of envy those of you who have such complete faith in Paradise.They do have the most games and action.I will certainly miss the flexibility Paradise had to offer,but O Well.

Good luck to those of you who play there.I hope my uneasiness is unfounded but like Shakespeare said "To thine own self be true".Due to a complete lack of concrete evidence in this matter my intuition will have to do and it tells me to get out.Perhaps at some point Paradise will offer some sort of third party verification of their operations,but I doubt it.So see you at Party Poker.


BTW my name is Pat DeBurgh and have played over 30,000 hours of B&M poker over the last 24 years,mostly in LA and Wash and am a winner at every place I have ever played.I have also worked in several clubs among them the Bicycle Club,Diamond Lil's,The Muckleshoot Casino and several others

>> It remains, however, that your argument that “the game is straight because I win” is no more valid, perhaps less so, than the argument that “the game is crooked because I lose”. In both cases, the conclusions are not mutually exclusive. It is possible to win and be cheated, and it’s possible to lose and not be cheated.


The difference, IMO, is that losing is, for the majority of players, an expected outcome no matter whether cheating is occurring or not. It's no surprise, even if the games are straight, to find large numbers of disgruntled losing players. But it is a surprise, if the games are crooked, to find players who are winning at good rates. Presumably the "fix" would be set up to hit winning players, so my rate ought to be a lot lower than 3+ BB/hr.


Chris

Dear Chris, you dont seem to understand. if you have 2 players or software programs at your table that play to the river regularly,(risking nothing) you will lose money. Thats just one scenario. There are lots of things possible.

You're a winner, so am I, it doesnt solve the riddle. The point is that many many very good players will not play at paradise because it doesnt play right. Your immature posts, "Have you ever played cards before?", etc. tell me alot. Yo Why dont you post your hand history every quarter somewhere , where we can all see how you are doing. Or is that too much work for you? Maybe we could all learn how a real

strong player like you does so well. Or better yet why not post your on-line handle so we can watch you play, after all ,you're a winner right, so it shouldnt bother you. Angelina is right out there in the open , why not you?

Tom, what stakes are you playing , and what is your handle, so we can watch you play?

I won there and if you have read my posts I believe there are problems, but I'm asking anyone like you and Chris (who also says his 75000 hands is enough to prove he is a winner), to simply back it up. your money and identity are safe, so tell us your handle so us doubters can be swayed. I'm not being sarcastic, and I donrt see what harm could come to you. Thanks I'll wait for your post

You must be joking!


Tom D

Angelina is right out there in the open , why not you?


LOL

>> Dear Chris, you dont seem to understand. if you have 2 players or software programs at your table that play to the river regularly,(risking nothing) you will lose money. Thats just one scenario. There are lots of things possible.


I'm afraid I still don't understand. How can you play to the river regularly risking nothing? Surely you're risking the money it takes to call bets to get there?


>> Why dont you post your hand history every quarter somewhere , where we can all see how you are doing. Or is that too much work for you?


Well yes, it is, actually.


>> Maybe we could all learn how a real

strong player like you does so well. Or better yet why not post your on-line handle so we can watch you play, after all ,you're a winner right, so it shouldnt bother you. Angelina is right out there in the open , why not you?


I *am*! It's not very hard, you can work it out for yourself, if you ever play my limits, which given your nick I doubt.


Chris

sorry Tom , I posted wRONG

Come on Chris wwhats your handle? Its funny that you wouldnt want to since you want to prove us wrong. We have to fiqure it out???? What does that

mean?

Your identity is protected there, so why not?

Could it be that your not quite telling us the full story? Dont make statements that you cant or wont back up. You could easily show us all what a winner you are, the only reason not to is because

it isnt true. Good luck

OK, OK. For the slower among you, my handle is ChrisV. Doesn't really take a genius. I don't see how it proves or disproves whether I win or not though.


Meanwhile, perhaps you could answer MY questions. To recap, here's what you wrote in your first post:


oNE thing to think about. If you have a player

or 2 ,artificial or real, who will play to the

river when they hit the flop in any way, even once in 5 plays, you willbe hardpressed to win long run.


and then:


Dear Chris, you dont seem to understand. if you have 2 players or software programs at your table that play to the river regularly,(risking nothing) you will lose money. Thats just one scenario. There are lots of things possible.


If you could explain how any of that makes any kind of sense id be grateful.


Thanks


Chris

Chris, you cant simply play tight and wait for cards to play and expect to win. You have to be able to steal blinds, semi bluff, and outright bluff, etc. If you are called down for example

evry time you raise with AK,by bottom pair and it goes to the river(only when you miss,) you are going to get your ass kicked, but you will think its poor players getting lucky and playing bad. Its undetectable , and eliminates all your weapons. This is very possible to program and fits

the description of hundreds of players as to how they have lost at the site.

Do you get it. You can have programs that call

you down, call three bets with crap and go to the

river and win. You can program this to appear random etc. Its very possible and undetectable.

It is just one type of scenario that they could run as well as big card draw outs. This isnt somed way out fantasy, it is quite easily achieved.

It doesnt mean that every deal is rigged, but in the long run it will be vry difficult to profit. Again, I won and got out, but the site doesnt play right imo. good luck

First time posting here after having played at PP for the past couple of months. I've been going through the archives on this site and am pretty amazed by some of the accusations concerning online poker.


While I'm a newbie to poker in general, I am a computer programmer with a lot of internet programming experience and while there's no doubt software could be written to do some of the claims made here, i.e., favoring loose players, punishing those who've withdrawn all the while appearing to be random, I find it very difficult to believe they could actually pull this off w/o someone exposing them or being detected by statistical analysis.


It's not a trivial task for software to be able to favor one player over another, sort it out in a game of 10 players (who's being "punished" for withdrawing and who needs to make their crap hand on the river to keep them playing) AND make it all appear like it's a random distribution. Compared to just creating a program that doles out cards in a random fashion, this would be a large undertaking. The source code to do this type of manipulation would dwarf the code for a simple random distribution of cards.


This would mean that you'd likely have a good size development team to support this, all of which would have to be in on the conspiricy. Would you be able to even get programmers to agree to such a shady operation? Perhaps, but doubtful to get a whole team that would keep their mouths shut. Ok, I suppose the whole site could have been written by one guy who's an owner, but that's doubtful, too.


So if all this is really happening, than a lot of people have to be in on it. And the larger the group in the supposed conspricy, the larger the odds that one of them will break ranks and expose them. Well, has anyone come forth? They could do it anonymously on a forum like this. Does anyone have proof besides their own anecdotal evidence (ie, you're losing)?


It would take only one rogue programmer to expose their supposed scam by coming forward with the voluminous source code that would be needed to support such manipulation. I would think the risk of blackmail in such a case would be extremely high. If I were a programmer on this team and had access to source, I could RUIN them. Heck, it wouldn't even have to be blackmail, maybe I'm just a disgruntled employee who didn't get that promotion. I mean, if any REAL proof of this were to come out, Paradise would be FINISHED. No?


Why on earth would they take such a risk to have their entire business destroyed by one disgruntled employee for what would probably amount to a marginal gain in their revenues?


Ed