Fearing set over set

[partygirluk]

I have only played a few rounds with Villain, but he seems quite reasonable.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t11218)
Button (t7870)
SB (t8097)
BB (t31196)
UTG (t3345)
UTG+1 (t10401)
MP1 (t11716)
MP2 (t9250)
MP3 (t24679)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t800</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t800, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t1800) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t3400</font>

When he raised preflop I had him on AK, AQ or a high pocket. I don't expect an over pair to have checked this flop. If he had Axclubs I think he would have C/R more. So now I am thinking there is a pretty decent chance he has TT.
If that is the case, with this weak a read on the player, is there anyway (bar hitting Quads) to avoid going broke. Anyway, how would you play this? All comments appreciated.

[TheJackal]

If he has TT on this board, I go broke. Than again he could have something like AT-AK of clubs, in which case you are about 2:1 on him. What I would do is smooth call the raise, see what he does on the turn. I think folding here would take a read of some sort that he has one of the two hands that beats you, and if you don't feel confident enough, I think the smooth call is your best option, (you can get away from it on the turn, I don't know if I've ever folded a set when in this type of a situation).

[Chief911]

Party,

I think there is an error in your thinking if you are going to be afraid of oversets. When you play 33, what are you hoping for? A straight? A flush? No. You are hoping and praying that you hit your set.

So now you hit it. What now? There are two overcards to my set. Could someone have hit an overset? Odds are what, 20% of the time you'll a set one all 5 community cards are on the board. Lets say your opponent has a pocket pair, and his 20% hits too. Of your 1 in 5 times that you hit a set, lets say every single one of those times someone else had a pair too. 4% of your 20% hits are going to have another set on the board. So, 4% of the time when you hold a pocket pair preflop (And we'll assume someone else does too for example sake), someone else is going to hit their set too. If we take all pairs the same, 2% of the time you are going to have the higher set. And 2% they are going to have the higher set.

Now, your odds of having a pocket pair preflop are 6%. So taking gall of these odds, approximately .12% (ish) of the time you are going to have a set that is a lower set to another one.

If that risk is not one that you are willing to take, then I would advise that you do not play medium/low pocket pairs. If that is something you are comfortable with, then play those low sets with a gusto when you get them, and shake off the disappointment when someone hits a higher set.

Nick

[jojobinks]

wellput, chief

[Whitey]

While I totally agree with what Chief wrote I will add this...

Sometimes poker is about reads (in fact its a hell of a lot about reads ) and sometimes,no matter how slim the odds of it occurring,you will run into an bigger set.

If you are certain ( and I would have to be 100% certain ) that my opponent would only play a set this way then I would fold.

I'm not saying I would fold in the hand in question,I'm just saying that when your absolutely positive you have your opponent on a hand you should follow that read and play accordingly,regardless of the math.

[partygirluk]

Hi Nick,

I agree that one primarily plays small pairs to flop a set, if you do, it is party time. I am pretty sure that your cow has an opinion on this hand. However, to say, I call with 33, the flop has a 3 therefore I will go all in is wrong IMHO. The amount of times it will be wrong, makes it a very small leak. However, I also have to think about my opponents hand.

Your figure of .12% of set over set is a priori. After this betting am 100% certain that the chances of set over set are greater than .12%. How high the percentage is, is the big question. I know for sure that against certain opponents the percentage is high enough to fold. This is more likely in a live environment.

I don't think the "I am not scared of an overset lets go all in" approach would be that much wrong in the long run. However, I don't think one could reach the Zenith of poker with such thinking.

[Chief911]

PGUK,

Agreed. I'm not saying that because you play it 100% of the time you have to be willing to call an all in. But I RARELY am not willing to go broke with no flush or straight on the board, meaning you're only beat by an overset.

To be honest though, the stats surprised me when I compiled them. And you are absolutely correct that its much easier to make a laydown like this live than it is online.

Nick

[sdplayerb]

with only 56x the bb, without a str or flush on the board, there is no way to consider folding a set. there are enough other hands the person can have to make it wrong to throw the hand away. you need to be well over 100x to even consider it.

[partygirluk]

Doesn't it depend whether the pot is raised preflop or not?

i.e. I think it would be easier to get away from with 56 BB limped preflop than 100BB raised PF.

[sdplayerb]

yes and no. would depend what the board is. but i think in general you are probably correct.

[esbesb]

Chief,

The question is not as you put it but, rather, what the odds are that he holds a set in these circumstances given the way he played the hand. I do not know how to quantify those odds, but they are much higher than the mere mathmatical odds of set over set in a random hand.

[adanthar]

On similar boards, I have previously played AA-KK, JJ, TT, AK-AQc, and possibly 99 (I don't remember) the same way.

If you put him exactly on TT you are playing way too weak/tight.

[regisd]

he could easily have AcTc here, and with both the nut flush draw and TPTK, it's a reasonable check-raise move.

[sdplayerb]

just one more little thing. you state that you think you need to be able to fold set over set to become a WC tourney player. I would have to disagree. This occurs so incredibly unoften, that it won't make that determination. especially in a situation with big enough stacks.
i have played a lot of tournaments and i have only had set over set once. i haven't even seen set over set on tv in a non allin situation. i don't think i've even read of set over set where it was it conceivable to be thrown away.
especially when the hand started headsup.

also his check raise was a terrible way to play it..if he is bad enough to play it that way..he is bad enough to have many many other hands.

trips over trips is a different matter entirely..and that can be gotten away from. one of my trip reports illustrates such an example.

[vicpanic]

you called a raise with 33 in hopes of hitting a set, now if your still scared when you did it you probably shouldnt play small pairs anymore

[partygirluk]

I never said you need to be able to fold set over set to become a WC player. I said a WC player would be capable of (sometimes) folding set over set. These are two different things.

In any case I pushed all in after running the time bank down, and when he called quickly I knew I was surely toast, but he turned over Ace of Hearts, King of Spades!