Party 15 Turn Fold [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

mmcd

01-09-2005, 05:38 AM

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Opponent's VPIP/PFR/WSD are 41/15/33

Haven't seen him get too far out of line postflop.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (16.66 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.33 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: 14.33 BB

Standard?

Nightwish

01-09-2005, 08:32 AM

I would never fold here. Ugly.

Jeffage

01-09-2005, 12:53 PM

The pot is too large to fold. Your opponent could certainly have the A /images/graemlins/club.gif with a Jack or Queen. He could just have a queen he's trying to protect. He could have two pair which you're drawing live to in a big pot. I wouldn't fold it.

Jeff

mmcd

01-09-2005, 01:27 PM

Given the way this guy was playing, (I was only playing 2 tables at the time so I had reasonable reads on the players) the particular texture of the board and the preflop action I was fairly certain he had the flush. The limp and call of a 3bet and flop call followed by the turn really seemed to point heavily toward suited trash. If he had a hand like the A /images/graemlins/club.gif (with or without a pair) or 2 pair, he likely would have raised preflop and probably would have jammed on the flop. It also seems like a terrible spot to make a move given that he could easily be up against a set. I'm getting about 8-1 effective odds to call him down, and might even have to bluff raise a 4th club on the river (assuming bb folds as he did).

I guess my concern with this hand is whether or not my reads can be trusted enough to make this kind of laydown given my effective odds in the party 15 game. I could easily make this sort of fold in a live game against certain types of players. This guy was quite loose and somewhat aggro preflop and on the flop, but his play was generally more loose passive on the later betting rounds.

4thstreetpete

01-09-2005, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Opponent's VPIP/PFR/WSD are 41/15/33

Haven't seen him get too far out of line postflop.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (16.66 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.33 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: 14.33 BB

Standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would most likely lay this hand down too. Sometimes it's difficult in a party 15/30 game with the yahoos that play there. In this situation though, it was capped already capped preflop. The 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the turn appears to be a non issue yet he checkraised you (he could be sitting on a set of 7s). It's a very suspect checkraise here.

Despite the pot being so large, looking at your hand you just have one pair and your hand cannot improve. You don't have the K /images/graemlins/club.gif and even if this drops there's 4 clubs on the board.

He may have a Q or J with A /images/graemlins/club.gif, which realistically is the only hand you could beat. 9 times out of 10, your opponent will have something better in this position to checkraise you when it's capped preflop.
Poker is all about saving bets, you'll have to put at least another $60 down to see the turn and river with your 1 pair. Unless your opponent is tilting and he's a maniac, fold your hand.