Going Away for Now - Might Be Back Some Other Time

Thanks to Big Al for his support and good posts. Thanks to all for their good posts I actually read quite a few including those from WB. I'm certainly not a popular poster here to say the least but I was never trying to win a popularity contest. Hopefully initial anger towards me was re-directed into positive energy, more effort and hard work in order to make money betting on sports. You see I would like to see everyone win money but I know it's hard and it's so easy to be careless and sloppy in one's analysis of the games. Take or leave what I say because a short term record doesn't mean anything really. I urge you all to be very careful and thoughtful in your analysis and strive to be as thorough as possible. Spend the time. Assess the probability that your analysis is right.


I never posted much of my analysis. I have posted a few things recently but I'm not really into sharing my thoughts as I prefer to work in a "vacuum" but that's not for everybody. I already posted some reasons why I wrote posts about people's records. There's another reason that is the most important. There are a lot of cracked crystal balls (including mine) and I think it's human nature to remember your good predictions and forget your bad ones. What's really problematic to my way of thinking is that bettors try to repeat the processes that lead to their good decision when those processes may not yield enough profitable decisions. In other words the process is flawed. So posting results is a way to remind bettors that yeah things don't work out sometimes and either bad luck or bad predictions do happen.


It's clear to me that I have killed "some of the action" on this forum and I never intended to do that. Since I prefer to work alone posting on this forum doesn't really benefit me very much either. So I think it's time for me to leave but I'll be lurking and nobody will have to worry about me responding (at least for the remainder of the football season) to their posts. I think I've made my points. Au Revior.

even though you had some rift with a few posters i enjoyed your posts and am sorry you are taking a break and hope you reconsider. its our loss.

You prefer to work in a vacuum, you prefer to work alone?

What brought you here in the first place?


I think your football insights were great. Why is it exactly that you don't want to contribute anymore? And your picks were nothing short of phenomenal. For a guy who understands a complex system like the NFL so well, you just don't understand people at all. All you have to do is not pick fights and not be abrasive, and people would have totally respected you on this forum. It's a basic tenet of human interaction. You don't get respect by tearing others down. You get respect and admiration by doing well and letting your actions speak for yourself. I noticed you toned down the abrasive posts lately and people are warming up to you. They've seen that you can at least back up what you say.


14-2 ATS is amazing, and yet, we all know nobody can keep that up. Some of it was luck, and you're bound to drop back down to 60-70% by the end of the season, like most experts. You also often posted your picks about 5 minutes before game time. Why is that?


So, I don't get it why you suddenly decide to stop participating in this forum. Is it because you've had a phenomenal early run and you are shilling for jimfeist.com? That would explain why you don't make your picks until the game has practically started.


Are you or are you not the Jim Feist associated with www.jimfeist.com (http://www.jimfeist.com)? If you are, that explains a lot. If not, I don't get why you want to quit and I don't think you should.


Regardless, thanks for football insights. They really were good.


natedogg

I echo Ray Zee's thoghts. I am sorry to so you go. You should reconsider as I think you contributed to this forum. Best of luck.--Big Al--

Hey thanks for the good words I have to clear some things up.


--I don't have a sports betting service, I'm not a tout, stay away from the touts including the other Jim Feist.


--The reason I like to do my handicapping in a vacuum is that I just do better that way and I'm really afraid yes afraid of getting advice that is costly. If poker books contain 80% good advice and 20% bad advice and I don't know any better they're going to cost me a lot of money playing poker. Same type of thing here. I have no problem with sharing my insights and I should have done that more. And I will say that I'm being paranoid because I've read stuff that I disagreed with and I didn't make a big deal about it.


-- The reason I don't post my picks until an hour or less before game time is because I don't make them until Sunday morning. Of course I will look over the Thursday game. I go through a process every week and this week is the same. I look at the lines on Monday and I hate every one of them and say I may not be betting this week (and I didn't for two weeks straight). This week is no different. I read as much news as I can about the NFL during the week. I update my stats records and look at data during the week. I rate each team's offense, defense and special teams against what I call the league norm. I start thinking about the intangibles as the week wears on. Then I usually start getting some ideas and tentatively pick some games by Friday. I examine the picks and maybe come up with some more and wonder am I insane and about to go off on a big number and lose on a bunch of games or is my thinking right. If you think betting on the Washington Redskin's of this world gives you a warm comfy feeling I've got news for ya. But I think comfort is very expensive. Also as we all know you can make a perfectly good selection be right and not cover by a sequence of plays that don't occur very often.


-- As far as being abrasive. Yes I've been too abrasive at times. I'll admit that a lot of times WB's attitude well... err uh ... /images/smile.gif. Let's just leave it at that I've been too abrasive at times to more posters than WB.


-- Why did I start posting on this forum? To kick WB's well... err... /images/smile.gif. Seriously I read a lot of interesting takes on various sports and I'm an admitted football and basketball nut. However, I perceived a certain amount of carelessness, laziness, and sloppyness in some of tha analysis and I was hoping to change that to a degree because the "guilty" parties have a lot of potential to make a lot of money the way I view things. Which brings me to.


-- I think the best thing I could do is simply make a post each week regarding my insights into the games. It won't happen until later in the week and it may not happen every week. I won't comment on other people's posts or predictions before or after the games so that "the action" picks up again.

person that announces a grand exit from this board only to return again, i'd have many nickels.


so your return is no surprise jim feist.


what is a surprise is that you have officially set the new record for quickest return after the big exit - 22.5 hours!


congrats jim!

I'm so upset at the way you guys treat Feisty, I'm gone! Out of here! Never coming back! Nothing you can say will make me stay! Die, you losers!


Out.

Awwwwwww, I could never stay mad at you guys. I think I'll give you a second chance. I'm baaaaackkkkk.


Ha! Now break THAT record!

I've had it with you guys, I am outta here, will never post again.


Wait, on second thought, I love you guys. How could I ever leave. I am back.


I now have the record...impossible to break.--Big Al--

sorry al but you lost. im in as soon as i say im out. im out.