10-19-2001, 07:01 PM
Pittsburg travels to Tampa Bay this week. I look for the Tampa Bay defense to shut them down completely. I also look for Brad Johnson (an underrated QB in my opinion) to have a breakout game against Pittsburg. Also, I like the aspect of where both teams are at mentally approaching this game (I will discuss this further below in response to Natedog's previous about concerning my patters). Pittsburg is playing its 4th road game in its first 5 games. I can tell you that when the players and coaches of Pittsburg looked at this schedule, one of their early goals was to get through this stretch OK. They have, as they are 3-1 going into this game. They have accomplished an early season goal. If they lose, they are 3-2, nothing wrong with that after playing 4 of your first 5 on the road. Tampa Bay needs this game. This is a game they look at before the season starts as a very possible win. Now that they are 2-2, they must win here as they do not want to drop to 2-3. This gives Tampa Bay the mental edge. They have played in big games before and I expect them to be totally mentally prepared for this one. Take Tampa Bay and give the 5 1/2. Its Big Al's shoe in of the week.
To address Natedogs post, let me first say that I offer the following thoughts as just something that I have found works for me. Take it for what it is worth and feel free to comment. When looking at games, I try to get a handle on a teams mental state or their psychology going into a game. I think this is a very critical variable that a lot of people do not take into account. Anyone can obtain individual player and team scouting reports and analyize them and come to a conclusion about how the game might go. This really isnt that diificult to do. Getting that extra edge requires, in my opinion, going further and looking at a teams mental state. This is not easy to do but it can be done. Some would argue that these guys are pros and that what I am saying is hogwash. I disagree. Here are some examples supporting my thinking. Week 2, the first week after the bombing, I touted taking all the home teams, stating there would be an emotional edge for them. A poster disagreed and basically said, IMO, these guys were pros, border line machines, and there would be little effect. Results? Home teams went 9-5 against the spread that week (64%). I'll take that anytime.
Lets now look at my weekly shoe in so far. Week 1, I said take Denver vs. Giants at Denver. They were a 6 1/2 favorite (Denver). I basically felt that the opener at new Mile High would have them pumped and they would cover fairly easy. Result? They won by 11, game wasnt even that close. Week 2 I said take Miami minus 1 1/2 against Raiders at Miami. I felt Miami would want to prove something to Raiders and everybody else after their shellacking to them in the Playoffs last year. Result: Miami humg tough and pulled out the win 18-15 in the last 5 seconds. Granted, I am still washing my underwear after that one, but it covered. Week 3: Cinn at SD. I think SD was a 6 point favorite. Cinn was coming off big upset of Baltimore at home. I looked for them to fal flat at SD. They did and SD won 28-14 in a game that was over early in the 4th. Week 4: NE at Miami. Miami 10 point favorite. I looked for NE to fall flat after their big upset of Indy. Result: Miami 30-10, easy win. Week 5: Arizona at Chicago. Chicago 7 point favorite. AZ on road again after upset/last minute win at Philly. Result? Bears win 20-13, were up 20-6 when they wnet into prevent and let AX go 99 yards and score with 2:39 left in game. Overall results: 4-0-1 ATS and throw in week two playing all games and thats 14-5-1 for the year. Also touted Washington as a strong play on Monday (which I played) and I am at 15-5-1 for the year. Granted, this is a small sample size. But I invite those to also look at last year and if you read this board, you know I did pretty good. I can tell you that for 4 years straight now I have made a significant amount of money betting the NFL.
So, how do you get a proper read on a teams mental toughness? Thats the 64,000$ question. Do you need a masters in Psychology? Mine isnt in that (actually its in Public Administration, ha!) I am not sure I can completely answer this but here are some things I look for: Nate is right, I look for poor teams coming off a big win versus good teams coming off a bad performance. I also look for the good team to be on the raod and the bad team to be travelling. I do also check the injury reports and dont look for key players that are injured but look more towards the number of starters that are injured. I also try to get into the mindset of the coaches and players goping into the game. This is hardest to do and I have developed a gut instinct which is really hard to communicate here. Also, something very important to keep in mind and this is why I think the mind set of a team in pro football is critical: the amount of time spent practicing versus actual game time is way out of line in football compared with other sports. How a team mentally approaches a game is set during the week before the game and the previous games and weeks before that. I honestly think that to be a winner in football you must learn the psuchology of the game. Its the hardest thig to do but it can be done.
Well, I have rambled way too long. I could go on about some other things I look for and will do so at a later time if there is any interest. I welcome anyones thoughts on anything I have stated. Of course, now that I have tried to come off as some big shot know it all, my shoe ins will start going down the toilet. In reality, I am a total mess and if you really knew me you'd say what the hell am I doing listening to this rimshot? But thats another story....Best of luck....Big Al.
To address Natedogs post, let me first say that I offer the following thoughts as just something that I have found works for me. Take it for what it is worth and feel free to comment. When looking at games, I try to get a handle on a teams mental state or their psychology going into a game. I think this is a very critical variable that a lot of people do not take into account. Anyone can obtain individual player and team scouting reports and analyize them and come to a conclusion about how the game might go. This really isnt that diificult to do. Getting that extra edge requires, in my opinion, going further and looking at a teams mental state. This is not easy to do but it can be done. Some would argue that these guys are pros and that what I am saying is hogwash. I disagree. Here are some examples supporting my thinking. Week 2, the first week after the bombing, I touted taking all the home teams, stating there would be an emotional edge for them. A poster disagreed and basically said, IMO, these guys were pros, border line machines, and there would be little effect. Results? Home teams went 9-5 against the spread that week (64%). I'll take that anytime.
Lets now look at my weekly shoe in so far. Week 1, I said take Denver vs. Giants at Denver. They were a 6 1/2 favorite (Denver). I basically felt that the opener at new Mile High would have them pumped and they would cover fairly easy. Result? They won by 11, game wasnt even that close. Week 2 I said take Miami minus 1 1/2 against Raiders at Miami. I felt Miami would want to prove something to Raiders and everybody else after their shellacking to them in the Playoffs last year. Result: Miami humg tough and pulled out the win 18-15 in the last 5 seconds. Granted, I am still washing my underwear after that one, but it covered. Week 3: Cinn at SD. I think SD was a 6 point favorite. Cinn was coming off big upset of Baltimore at home. I looked for them to fal flat at SD. They did and SD won 28-14 in a game that was over early in the 4th. Week 4: NE at Miami. Miami 10 point favorite. I looked for NE to fall flat after their big upset of Indy. Result: Miami 30-10, easy win. Week 5: Arizona at Chicago. Chicago 7 point favorite. AZ on road again after upset/last minute win at Philly. Result? Bears win 20-13, were up 20-6 when they wnet into prevent and let AX go 99 yards and score with 2:39 left in game. Overall results: 4-0-1 ATS and throw in week two playing all games and thats 14-5-1 for the year. Also touted Washington as a strong play on Monday (which I played) and I am at 15-5-1 for the year. Granted, this is a small sample size. But I invite those to also look at last year and if you read this board, you know I did pretty good. I can tell you that for 4 years straight now I have made a significant amount of money betting the NFL.
So, how do you get a proper read on a teams mental toughness? Thats the 64,000$ question. Do you need a masters in Psychology? Mine isnt in that (actually its in Public Administration, ha!) I am not sure I can completely answer this but here are some things I look for: Nate is right, I look for poor teams coming off a big win versus good teams coming off a bad performance. I also look for the good team to be on the raod and the bad team to be travelling. I do also check the injury reports and dont look for key players that are injured but look more towards the number of starters that are injured. I also try to get into the mindset of the coaches and players goping into the game. This is hardest to do and I have developed a gut instinct which is really hard to communicate here. Also, something very important to keep in mind and this is why I think the mind set of a team in pro football is critical: the amount of time spent practicing versus actual game time is way out of line in football compared with other sports. How a team mentally approaches a game is set during the week before the game and the previous games and weeks before that. I honestly think that to be a winner in football you must learn the psuchology of the game. Its the hardest thig to do but it can be done.
Well, I have rambled way too long. I could go on about some other things I look for and will do so at a later time if there is any interest. I welcome anyones thoughts on anything I have stated. Of course, now that I have tried to come off as some big shot know it all, my shoe ins will start going down the toilet. In reality, I am a total mess and if you really knew me you'd say what the hell am I doing listening to this rimshot? But thats another story....Best of luck....Big Al.