Shoe
01-08-2005, 03:17 AM
I made 2 bets tonight where I had an opportunity to go for huge middles (but did not). I would have won both of them, just curious if anyone has any guidelines on if they are worth going for, or if it is considered hedgeing and generally negative EV. Here are my 2 examples from tonight:
Bet 1: CHA/ORL over 201.5. At half time they had already scored 114 points. I don't remember the 2nd half over/under exactly, but I think it was 98 (let's just assume it was for this example). If I would have taken the under, this means I would have won both bets if they scored between 202-211, won 1 unit if they scored 212, and pushed (minus the juice) at any other total.
Bet 2: I bet the Lakers -3 vs. Houston. At half time, the lakers were up by 24 points. Houston was favored by 4 points for the 2nd half, so if I would have taken this bet, I would have won both bets if the Lakers ended up winning by anywher from 4 - 19 points, and won one unit if the lakers won by 3 or 20 points, and just paid the juice on all others.
In general, are bets like these worth taking if they are over x amount points, or does it depend on my analysis of each situation?
Thanks!
Bet 1: CHA/ORL over 201.5. At half time they had already scored 114 points. I don't remember the 2nd half over/under exactly, but I think it was 98 (let's just assume it was for this example). If I would have taken the under, this means I would have won both bets if they scored between 202-211, won 1 unit if they scored 212, and pushed (minus the juice) at any other total.
Bet 2: I bet the Lakers -3 vs. Houston. At half time, the lakers were up by 24 points. Houston was favored by 4 points for the 2nd half, so if I would have taken this bet, I would have won both bets if the Lakers ended up winning by anywher from 4 - 19 points, and won one unit if the lakers won by 3 or 20 points, and just paid the juice on all others.
In general, are bets like these worth taking if they are over x amount points, or does it depend on my analysis of each situation?
Thanks!