free card decision

[wuwei]

Villian has been very aggressive preflop (18% pfr). I haven't paid enough attention to have a feel for his range of 3-betting hands, though. He's also managed to get the best of me a few times, in hands often involving a turn c/r. I'm not on tilt, but I'll admit to tilt-like feelings with respect to this guy. We've tangled enough this session and it's left a bad taste in my mouth. This is an area of my game I need to work on...

All that being said, what about the turn here?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...

[brettbrettr]

I bet this.

[wuwei]

What's your reasoning?

[billyjex]

You want a free card for a 2-outer when you are probably ahead here?

I bet this. If you get C/R he probably has an ace and it's not worth it to continue.

Also, by taking your free card, you're really giving him a free card for a lone club or straight draw (even though since he's a reasonable player I doubt he has low cards.)

[chief444]

I would check, I think.

I think it's very likely you're behind, even given the description. I also think that you're chances of folding QQ or KK are now reduced and you're chances of being check/raised by a worse hand are now increased (although probably still little chance) with the third club falling.

Honestly, It probably doesn't make much of a difference one way or the other. But since you probably do have a couple of outs I'd just check it through.

[Milky]

Any reason why you didn't cap PF with position? Just curious...

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Any reason why you didn't cap PF with position? Just curious...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I can recall... with JJ and position on a guy I know to be over aggressive preflop, capping sounds like a good decision.

[private joker]

I actually wouldn't raise the flop. This is a somewhat-ahead/way-behind situation. If he has an ace you're drawing to 2 outs. If he doesn't, you could lose if a K or Q shows up. Otherwise you're good. Given that he 3-bet PF, he could be on TT-KK or even a small pair. But if he has an ace, raising only gets you in deeper trouble.

I'd call the flop, call the turn, and bet the river if checked to. That way, as we say, you lose the least when he's ahead, and gain more when you're ahead (because if he still hasn't paired up when you bet this turn he'll fold).

[me454555]

This is an easy bet. Just look at the 2 situations

Situation 1: Bet the turn. This leads to 1 of 3 outcomes
1) Sb folds. Good
2) Sb c/rs, you fold and lose 1 bet
3) Sb calls. You check behind the river. Still lose 1 bet

Situation 2: You chekc the turn. This leads to 2 situations

1) Sb bets out and you call. You pretty much have to call her b/c of the weakness you showed on the turn. The worst part is that sb might be betting a hand he may have folding for 1 bet one the turn. This is also a very likely scenerio given the fact that you have shown weakness on the turn. Net cost 1bb

2) The less likely scenerio is that sb checks to you on the river and you can probobly value bet here. Net cost 1bb

Both checking and betting will cost you 1 BB but by betting the turn you may get a better hand to fold.

[me454555]

Raising the flop could allow you to fold a hand that is better than yours, QQ or KK

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop could allow you to fold a hand that is better than yours, QQ or KK

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I've ever seen this on 2/4. Maybe if there was one A, you could fold KK or QQ. But two aces on the board make it less likely for your opponent to have one, and if KK bets into this board and gets raised, he'll call down in a heartbeat. Would you fold KK if you got raised on this flop? Didn't think so.

[me454555]

I proobobly would toss it to a turn bet, especially if I didn't have a club.

BTW, your check/call line costs 1 sb and 2 bb, my raise flop bet the turn check behind on the river line costs 2 sb and 1 bb saving you a sb. It is a cheaper way of playing. Since you can toss it if you get 3 bet on the flop or c/red on the turn, you still lose the least.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy bet. Just look at the 2 situations

Situation 1: Bet the turn. This leads to 1 of 3 outcomes
1) Sb folds. Good
2) Sb c/rs, you fold and lose 1 bet

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the thing... I really don't want to walk into a c/r and have to fold. I didn't do a good enough job of communicating this in my original post. This player and one other opponent at the table were pretty aggressive players. I had shown multiple times that I was willing to lay down my hand to a raise on the turn. The couple times I've called down to keep them from taking shots, I've guessed poorly and they have had the goods. So I'm a little paranoid right now about folding to this turn c/r. If this were a more normal situation, laying down to a c/r would be pretty easy... what hand could he c/r with here that I beat?

Regardless, that sentiment is not enough of a reason to check through the turn. I was thinking further about this hand today, and grabbed my copy of ToP. David lays out 4 criteria for deciding whether or not to give your opponent a free card.

1. Your chance of having the best hand.
2. The chance the next card will give your opponent the best hand when he would have folded for one bet.
3. The size of the pot.
4. The chances you will outdraw a better hand that might call you.

What's my chance of having the best hand? I'm really not sure. Like I said, he's agro preflop but I don't know how that translates to 3-betting. I would guess his range of hands here is something like 77-AA, AQs-AK. Placing too much value on small and medium pairs seems common for opponents who are over agro preflop. Perhaps I should also include KQs. I'm too lazy to do the math, but I don't have the best hand here over half the time with that range of hands.

There's a pretty good chance that the next card could give my opponent a better hand even if I'm ahead with all those clubs out there, but I really don't think he's folding for 1 bet on the turn.

The pot is nice, but not huge.

What's the chance that I'll outdraw a better hand that would call me? I've got two outs, which means I have minimal chance of catching up. Throw in the fact that I'm probably behind based on the range of hands I've assigned above, and I now think checking here is the right play.

Thoughts?

[me454555]

[ QUOTE ]
hat's the thing... I really don't want to walk into a c/r and have to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? its not the end of the world. You've gained some valuable information about the strenth of his hand

[ QUOTE ]
I had shown multiple times that I was willing to lay down my hand to a raise on the turn. The couple times I've called down to keep them from taking shots, I've guessed poorly and they have had the goods. So I'm a little paranoid right now about folding to this turn c/r. If this were a more normal situation, laying down to a c/r would be pretty easy... what hand could he c/r with here that I beat?


[/ QUOTE ]

You've called down a couple of times and they probobly won't try to bluff you every chance they get. Why are you so paranoid about a c/r? You're playing party 2/4 don't over think the game. You've shown the ability to call down so why do you think they will just c/r you w/out the goods after you've shown strenth on the flop?

[ QUOTE ]
What's my chance of having the best hand? I'm really not sure. Like I said, he's agro preflop but I don't know how that translates to 3-betting. I would guess his range of hands here is something like 77-AA, AQs-AK. Placing too much value on small and medium pairs seems common for opponents who are over agro preflop. Perhaps I should also include KQs. I'm too lazy to do the math, but I don't have the best hand here over half the time with that range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not you're currently ahead of your opponent isn't the point of this bet. This is not a bet solely based on the value that you have a better hand than your opponent. This is a bet based on a combination of things
1) You have the best at the moment, probobly true 30% of the time
2) You can get your opponent to fold a better hand like a higher pp b/c he thinks you have the ace. True maybe 5% of the time
3) You set up a free showdown if you don't get c/red costing you same amount as if you had checked this and had to call a bet on the river. True a very good propotion of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
What's the chance that I'll outdraw a better hand that would call me? I've got two outs, which means I have minimal chance of catching up. Throw in the fact that I'm probably behind based on the range of hands I've assigned above, and I now think checking here is the right play.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe this statement to be true you should have folded on the flop b/c the pot isn't big enough to chase a 2 outter.

Start thinking about your turn and river play in combination with each other and use your turn play to set up your river play. It may sound couterintuitive to bet the turn with a worse hand rather than take a free card on the river but that card isn't really free if you plan on calling the river, which you almost have to do if you check the turn. Since your odds of improving from this free river card are slim and your hand is a decent holding, this is a great time to try the free showdown play.