How good is a set, anyway?

[SamIAm]

Villian (SB) is a good player. I've seen him for 100 hands, and he's got a slightly smaller PreFlopRaise percentage than I do. I know 100 hands isn't proof, blah blah blah, but I still know he's not a maniac.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: SamIAm is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SamIAm 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, SamIAm calls, UTG calls, Button calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, SamIAm folds, UTG calls, Button calls.

So, here's three arguments. You can choose whichever you like best. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

1) You don't have pot odds for the T, and, oh my goodness! What if SB has QQ!! Quick, fold!

2) You're on the draw. You have implied odds galore for your T. If you get it, you'll win against a multi-way pot as easily as a heads-up pot, so call and hope.

3) Maybe the villian has AK. Or, um, AJ or 99, and you're ahead! (He capped with AJ or 99?) Raise to make the pot just between the two of you.

Everybody pick a number.
-Sam

[MoreWineII]

3, but I'm a maniac.

[billyjex]

I think it's worth a raise to get it down between you two and see if he's willing to 3-bet it or bet into you on the turn. If he has AK he'll most likely slowdown and you can take control of the hand. If he has AA KK or QQ you suck.

[emonrad87]

Raise and see if he's got AK. If not, call his 3-bet then check fold or go crazy on the turn, dependant on if you spike the T.

[MCS]

What are the other two players like? Are they loose? They coldcalled a blind 3-bet, so I guess it's at least plausible. Basically, I'm wondering if you'll get paid off by hitting a set.

With a pot this big, I don't fold. I think that I would be concerned about straight redraws if I hit the T, but again, the pot is SO BIG. I guess I feel like the "correct" answer is (3), but I bet I'd pick (2) if I were in your shoes.

You shouldn't be folding, and it'd be good to knock people out. My concern is that a flop raise won't accomplish that goal, because you can't make the odds bad enough for gutshots and bottom pairs to fold with a flop raise. I might just call here and see what happens on the turn.

[DavidC]

Ouch...

Sucks being to the left of the capper.

I say #1: fold.

However, if you were the button and you capped it, and SB bet, and it was called to you, that gives you damn-near odds to call.

Problem is you can't tell what the hell's going to happen behind you.

Given that it sucks being to the right of the capper, does this mean that you should have called pf? I don't know the answer to that... it's clearly a large disadvantage to be in that position, but as to it's -EV affect on a +EV hand, I'm not sure...

Any comments?

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the other two players like? Are they loose?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, the are, in fact loose. Really really loose. They play well over half their hands. That means any face card, and all sorts of sh[/i]it. They still get dealt queens as often as the rest of us, though, you're right.

The turn in this hand came T, which was frustrating, but I'm not results-oriented. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'm not going to play Fantasy-League Poker after I fold a hand. However, the REALLY frustrating thing was when the capper won the hand with pocket NINES! NINES!!

So it felt like a pretty expensive mistake I made, and I wanted to hear the forum's opinion.
-Sam

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

2) You're on the draw. You have implied odds galore for your T. If you get it, you'll win against a multi-way pot as easily as a heads-up pot, so call and hope.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've also got bd straight draws. I call here.

Rob

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Fantasy-League Poker

[/ QUOTE ]

I just want you to know that this is going to be one of my new sayings. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Fnord]

What's the raising range from the SB for a player like that these days? AK? AQ? Suited broadways?

I vote 3 because the pot is already silly big. If you think he's rasing big unpaired cards from the SB the pot size + balance of spikeing a Ten or having the best hand can't make taking this hand to showdown a big mistake.

If you raise the flop and someone behind you looks like they like their hand then it's an easy fold.

[bdk3clash]

This seems like a pretty easy call to me. I hate raising this flop.

[DeeJ]

This is a must-raise on the flop. If it doesn't cause the two behind to fold you're probable toast (but you get to see the turn), if SB 3-bets you can still call to see the turn. If it's capped when it gets to you it's an easy fold.

If SB only calls you may even get a free card against a ace queen or even AK and take it from there.

[Fnord]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like a pretty easy call to me. I hate raising this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the inflated pot kinda rule out calling? What exactly are you drawing to? This isn't the kind of hand where you want the other two nimwits hanging around on the cheap if you have the best hand. I guess it comes down to just how tight you think this guy's SB raising standard is...

[bdk3clash]

Other than 2 outers, raising doesn't really protect your hand on this flop--it gives everyone like 10:1 to call. I am also thinking that you're losing to SB's overpair, but that's just me.

I think raising the flop doesn't protect your hand because of how big the pot already is, and I think you're probably already drawing.

A case can be made for calling the flop intending on raising a non A/K turn lead bet from the SB and taking a free showdown if UTG and button fold the turn to two cold. That might actually be a pretty good line as you'll probably only get 3-bet by the SB if he has QQ exactly, but I don't know how I'd react to a 3-bet from UTG or button. Depending on the turn card, I guess I'd call the 3-bet and fold the river unimproved.

I would also like to point out that I've generally not been 3-betting TT from the BB, but maybe I should be.

[Michael Davis]

Folding is clearly wrong. The other two are open to debate.

-Michael

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
I would also like to point out that I've generally not been 3-betting TT from the BB, but maybe I should be.

[/ QUOTE ]
If the SB does the raising, I think the 3-bet is pretty clear. I'd do it every time.

However, I've learned that if I have a 2-outer and an http://www.fh-wedel.de/~si/seminare/ws98/Ausarbeitung/5.Zint/ref/infinity.gifSB pot, I won't fold. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
-Sam

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the raising range from the SB for a player like that these days? AK? AQ? Suited broadways?

[/ QUOTE ]Keep in mind we're not talking about "raising range"; we're talking about "capping range" for a decent/good player. He had the opportunity to close the action, and instead he capped it. I don't put him on "suited broadways".
-Sam

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian (SB) is a good player. I've seen him for 100 hands, and he's got a slightly smaller PreFlopRaise percentage than I do. I know 100 hands isn't proof,

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure it is.

Your implied odds are a little impaired since your position to the aggressor sucks. If you hit, your raise will likely shutout any behind you. A 10 also puts possible draws on the board so it's a good idea to factor in the other 2 guys you're in the hand with. You do have a b-door draw, but will likely make the least if you get it. (that position thing again)

That said, a solid sb capper isn't doing this with AJ or 99. No way. AK, maybe AQs, but likely you're beat badly at this point.

If you are playing past the flop, I'd raise the flop.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising the flop doesn't protect your hand because of how big the pot already is, and I think you're probably already drawing.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given the preflop action, your raise will look to most like at least KK. With 2 of you , it will look like one of you has AA. Many will fold behind you in this spot. Think of what they'll be putting you on. Most won't be thinking of odds to draw given the action, but what hand they have compared to yours.

Of course, opponent knowledge is helpful.

b