Making Tough Value Bets

[gaming_mouse]

I'd like flop and river thoughts.

Flop: My 4 outs are kinda dirty, but these players were pretty tight and playable hands with 5's are rare. My 5 outs look good, except for those two diamonds. Was my call ok?

River: A 5 gives someone a straight, plus there's a 3-flush on board. Anyone think this is a value bet anyway? If so, fold to a raise?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (4.66 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 4.66 BB

[billyjex]

I think you should bet the river, I think a straight would have bet by now. You will be called by an ace more than raised by a straight/flush.

As for calling a raise.. I don't know. Maybe someone else better can elaborate.

[BoxTree]

Flop: 8.33:1.
The 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif is a sure out.
The 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif is an incredibly strong out.
The 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is about half an out.
The 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif is a strong out.
The 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif is also strong.

So...1 and 1 and .5 and .75 and .75. 4 outs. Just like a gutshot.

And you close the betting.

Calling the flop is fine.

Bet the river. And...I'd call a raise. You'd be getting 7:1 on your call. Your set will hold up often enough.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river. And...I'd call a raise. You'd be getting 7:1 on your call. Your set will hold up often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only part I don't like is calling raise. When someone raises you here (especially when there are still players yet to act) you are almost always beat. Then again, I hate to folding to a raise too -- since you are getting such huge odds on the call, and there's always that chance it's a bluff.

Indeed, I find how to deal with river raises to be the most difficult problem in holdem right now. It comes up alot because I am value betting alot. I absolutely hate folding, especially against TAGs or unknows, but I think there are many situations when it is correct.

I'd love some really good advice on this.

gm

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
The only part I don't like is calling raise. When someone raises you here (especially when there are still players yet to act) you are almost always beat. Then again, I hate to folding to a raise too -- since you are getting such huge odds on the call, and there's always that chance it's a bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking about it more, I think you absolutely have to call a raise with no reads. Aggressive players are capable of bluffing on a board like this if they think you're trying to buy the pot.

For me to fold.. I would need stats on someone saying their postflop aggression is really low. Otherwise.. the odds are there.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

For me to fold.. I would need stats on someone saying their postflop aggression is really low. Otherwise.. the odds are there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, but if you are going to call a raise, I think a value bet may not be so valuable anymore. That is, you are now risking 2BB for a value bet that was marginal to begin with.

This creates another common situation. If you fold to a raise, bet. Otherwise just check and call. Check/calling in these situations gets an unfairly bad rap, too, as it has induced-bluff equity. More thoughts on this subject?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

calling the flop bet is inconsistent with checking the river.

[AceHigh]

Bet the river, it's unlikely someone will check/raise as the turn was checked thru.

[holdemfan]

Hey mouse,
Played well until river. Bet your set. If raised by button it would be scary but I would call. Especially call a raise if it was someone who already checked. You could be calling an Ax or two pair. If the button raises I would wonder was it real or was it that they think you are bluffing. Chances are a bet will fold them all.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Chances are a bet will fold them all.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a reason against betting, not for betting. However, I don't think it's true -- I should have bet and I probably would have gotten a caller.

Johnny BB: Good point, but not exactly true. A five would have been a clean out. I might have been drawing on that alone -- I think I'd have the odds. However, you are right. I should have bet.

[ErrantNight]

easy bet on the river. this is what value betting is all about, sorta.

but look... those hypothetical flush and straight draws are runner-runner to be coming in... you've already said playable hands with 5's are unlikely (which seems true/reasonable)... and you can't put either of the two guys that checked in front of you on these hands given that they checked in front of you after the turn got checked around.

which means you're not betting because you fear the button had two clubs, didn't bet them on the turn, or had... what, 55?

it seems to me to be highly unlikely that you're beat here.