10-16-2001, 06:13 PM
Hey Big Al, I notice that your shoe-in of the week often takes a team that fits one of the following criterion:
1. A mediocre or bad team that has done well against other mediocre or bad teams and looks to have a let down.
2. A good team that has just suffered a let-down and looks to rebound strongly.
I don't remember your week 1 shoe-in but your week 2 shoe in was Philly vs. Seattle right?
Philly loses to STL in over-time at home. Week 2 Shoe-in is Philly crushing Seattle, a clear and obvious talent mismatch
Week 3. Seattle at Oakland. Oakland almost loses to a clearly inferior KC. Week 3 Shoe-in is Oak giving like 10 pts to Seattle.
Week 4. Miami gets crushed by STL in week 3. Shoe-in is Miami crushing NE at home.
Week 5. Arizona posts a miraculous win in Philly, and then travels to Chicago for a let-down after
over-achieving in Philly.
I can't remember week 1 shoe-in but the rest were favorites who had played badly or at least not up to expecations
the week before and were now facing teams that really weren't that good but had over-performed the week before.
Is this generally a strong indication of a good play?
Using that principle, I would say that this week's good matchups would be:
STL -7 at NYJ. STL failed to cover by 9 and made the NYG look pretty good. Whereas NYJ, who are decent but not great,
just coming off an exhiliarating, and typical, upset battle against a clearly superior Miami team. Let - down time for the Jets?
TB -6 over PIT. Some of the reasons I gave in a post below would fit here. PIT looking damn good vs. bad teams, going into
Tampa's house after Tampa drops a disappointing game to a broken and battered and BEATABLE Tennessee. TB beat GB at
home 2 weeks ago, so home field probably does them some good.
Jacksonville -9 over BUF Jax coming off a bye week and getting pummelled by Seattle, facing BUF at home.
Buffalo is just a terrible team and will probably be destroyed by the Jags. Brunell is a question here though.
Baltimore -7 at Cleveland. Disappointing loss to GB, although GB puts the paper-tiger speculation to rest. Bal has done
well vs. CLE and will likely open a can on them this week. (I heard Grbac may not play, which would probably affect this play).
Indy -10.5 over New England. A big let-down for Indy vs. the Raiders, and a huge uplifting upset win by NE at home against a team that probably didn't deserve to go 3-0. Now they go on the road facing a team who is looking for payback and has the weapons to deliver it. Possibly a monster ass-whooping in store for NE?
Except for one of your shoe-ins, you usually go with a team that is returning home after doing badly, or a home team facing someone who has just over-achieved the week before.
The would eliminate the STL, BAL picks since they're on the road, leaving
Indy -10.5 over NE,
Jax -9 over BUF
and TB -6 over PIT
I don't see a line for the San Diego game yet, but technically this game could fit EITHER criterion. A good team coming off a road-letdown, (Denver), although still on the road, or a good team coming off a road let-down to face a division rival at home. Although describing SD as a good team might be a stretch, now that they're 3-2 and they got 3 wins vs some of the worst teams in the league.
Also New Orleans -8 over ATL could conceivable fit this criterion, although not as strongly as the others. A disappointing and unimpressive win in Carolina could translate as a let-down for a team with super-bowl aspirations. A gutsy and inspired game vs. the superior 9ers could also count as over-achieving for an injury-plagued ATL.
So, am I on the right track? And if so, what are some of the other criteria you use to further hone your picks? Because some of the ones I just listed that fit the criteria DO NOT sound like good bets to me.
Thanks.
natedogg
1. A mediocre or bad team that has done well against other mediocre or bad teams and looks to have a let down.
2. A good team that has just suffered a let-down and looks to rebound strongly.
I don't remember your week 1 shoe-in but your week 2 shoe in was Philly vs. Seattle right?
Philly loses to STL in over-time at home. Week 2 Shoe-in is Philly crushing Seattle, a clear and obvious talent mismatch
Week 3. Seattle at Oakland. Oakland almost loses to a clearly inferior KC. Week 3 Shoe-in is Oak giving like 10 pts to Seattle.
Week 4. Miami gets crushed by STL in week 3. Shoe-in is Miami crushing NE at home.
Week 5. Arizona posts a miraculous win in Philly, and then travels to Chicago for a let-down after
over-achieving in Philly.
I can't remember week 1 shoe-in but the rest were favorites who had played badly or at least not up to expecations
the week before and were now facing teams that really weren't that good but had over-performed the week before.
Is this generally a strong indication of a good play?
Using that principle, I would say that this week's good matchups would be:
STL -7 at NYJ. STL failed to cover by 9 and made the NYG look pretty good. Whereas NYJ, who are decent but not great,
just coming off an exhiliarating, and typical, upset battle against a clearly superior Miami team. Let - down time for the Jets?
TB -6 over PIT. Some of the reasons I gave in a post below would fit here. PIT looking damn good vs. bad teams, going into
Tampa's house after Tampa drops a disappointing game to a broken and battered and BEATABLE Tennessee. TB beat GB at
home 2 weeks ago, so home field probably does them some good.
Jacksonville -9 over BUF Jax coming off a bye week and getting pummelled by Seattle, facing BUF at home.
Buffalo is just a terrible team and will probably be destroyed by the Jags. Brunell is a question here though.
Baltimore -7 at Cleveland. Disappointing loss to GB, although GB puts the paper-tiger speculation to rest. Bal has done
well vs. CLE and will likely open a can on them this week. (I heard Grbac may not play, which would probably affect this play).
Indy -10.5 over New England. A big let-down for Indy vs. the Raiders, and a huge uplifting upset win by NE at home against a team that probably didn't deserve to go 3-0. Now they go on the road facing a team who is looking for payback and has the weapons to deliver it. Possibly a monster ass-whooping in store for NE?
Except for one of your shoe-ins, you usually go with a team that is returning home after doing badly, or a home team facing someone who has just over-achieved the week before.
The would eliminate the STL, BAL picks since they're on the road, leaving
Indy -10.5 over NE,
Jax -9 over BUF
and TB -6 over PIT
I don't see a line for the San Diego game yet, but technically this game could fit EITHER criterion. A good team coming off a road-letdown, (Denver), although still on the road, or a good team coming off a road let-down to face a division rival at home. Although describing SD as a good team might be a stretch, now that they're 3-2 and they got 3 wins vs some of the worst teams in the league.
Also New Orleans -8 over ATL could conceivable fit this criterion, although not as strongly as the others. A disappointing and unimpressive win in Carolina could translate as a let-down for a team with super-bowl aspirations. A gutsy and inspired game vs. the superior 9ers could also count as over-achieving for an injury-plagued ATL.
So, am I on the right track? And if so, what are some of the other criteria you use to further hone your picks? Because some of the ones I just listed that fit the criteria DO NOT sound like good bets to me.
Thanks.
natedogg