Playing a poor 1 card flush

[DeeJ]

Anyone play this differently? Villain here is fairly loose ~50% VPIP and quite passive but I've not seen him b4 so it could be that high just because we're shorthanded and he has had some good cards (only 20 hands to date).

Paradise Poker 8/16 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, MP folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (4.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[LaggyLou]

I would have folded the flop. If I've decided to play this, I'd raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet. If you are ahead you want to give him a chance to fold, and -- who knows -- a T or 7 might well fold to a turn raise.

[Lost Wages]

Fold the flop or, if you must play, bet. Check and call sucks.

Lost Wages

[DeeJ]

How can I fold the flop?

If neither of the opponents have got a spade (which is true around 40% of the time likely the case statistically) I've got a fantastic chance to hit the winning hand, and will likely be getting action from an Ace or a Jack.

each card, chance of having a spade = 9 / 47
each card, chance of not having a spade = 38/47 = 0.808

and 0.808 ^ 4 = 0.427

Even if you adjust this downwards because UTG bet (although with position) to say 35%, I surely have +EV to call 1 bet when the pot is 4 SB.

Yes? No?

[Lost Wages]

OK, you will make a flush by the river 35% of the time and you will lose 35% of the time that you do make a flush so you will make a winning hand .35*(1-.35)= 23% of the time. Plus you are in a reverse implied odds situation, you won't get paid off when you have the winning hand (4 spades on the board) but you will pay off when you have the losing hand.

If you are going to call a bet on the flop in this situation then it is about a zillion times better to just bet it yourself. Check and calling gives you one way to win, betting gives you two.

Lost Wages

[jordanx]

You're still drawing on that ~40% chance though.

So you have say 4 outs (discounted). No great implied odds because you cannot raise if you make your flush.

The pot odds aren't even great here.

[DeeJ]

Yet since I've not shown strength, and I'm being bet into, and not raising, Villain doesn't think I have a spade at the turn. He wants me to fold, right?

And if I bet, what do I do if he raises (bluff or not) and I have no spade (or a weak one)? Yep, I fold. Therefore I thought it would be best to let him continue betting into me to tell me he had a spade even though I knew it was 2/3 likely he didn't. Do you see my thinking?

EDIT: where is Ed Miller when you need him to defend drawing with a 4 flush? Or is the one case where you don't /images/graemlins/wink.gif ?

[Lost Wages]

I've not shown strength...I'm being bet into...He wants me to fold, right?

I bet when I want someone to fold. I also bet when I want someone to call.

And if I bet, what do I do if he raises

If you bet the flop, it is nearly a pure bluff. If he raises, you fold. Simple.

Do you see my thinking?

Yes, I do and it's loose passive.

where is Ed Miller when you need him

If Ed Miller was dead he would be spinning in his grave. What did he say in SSH? Small pot, tend to fold marginal hands. If you bet a marginal hand and are raised, fold.

Lost Wages

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I've not shown strength...I'm being bet into...He wants me to fold, right?

I bet when I want someone to fold. I also bet when I want someone to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. At the turn, I want neither of these because if I bet he will fold without a spade, yet I may get raised and not know what to do. If I play dead, he may well bet a non-spade hand and I win more.

[ QUOTE ]

And if I bet, what do I do if he raises

If you bet the flop, it is nearly a pure bluff. If he raises, you fold. Simple.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I was referring to the turn here. I didn't bet the flop because of the earlier remarks in the thread.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you see my thinking?

Yes, I do and it's loose passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong box. I'm usually fairly aggressive. Here, against a fairly passive guy I'm being cute to extract (possible) extra bets.

[ QUOTE ]

where is Ed Miller when you need him

If Ed Miller was dead he would be spinning in his grave. What did he say in SSH? Small pot, tend to fold marginal hands. If you bet a marginal hand and are raised, fold.

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

Granted, but I was referring to the bit (somewhere) where he says it is nearly always wrong to fold a flush draw.

[Ed Miller]

Granted, but I was referring to the bit (somewhere) where he says it is nearly always wrong to fold a flush draw.

It is nearly always wrong to fold a flush draw made from two suited cards in your hand and two on board. Your situation in this hand is very different.

[DeeJ]

ta Ed, was recalling advice from memory.

But are you spinning in your grave that you aren't in yet? /images/graemlins/smile.gif Should I really be folding the flop here /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Villain had J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif so my plan worked perfectly mwahahaha. My thoughts were (as above) that players will presume that since they haven't been raised they aren't looking down the barrel of a flush - I am playing Mr Calling Station. I probably wouldn't have gone beyond the turn if it was a non-spade. I got the feeling at the turn that, after I insta-checked, due to a short pause, that he probably didn't have the flush, since if he did have it he would insta-bet. But it was just not long enough for me to take it as a 100% tell.

[k_squared]

Your play might have worked out in this hand, but that alone doesn't make it correct. In fact, a lot of players might have been betting a weak 4 card flush (say Jh-10s) where they paired up on the flop and now have a weakish flush. With onlt a ten high flush (or perhaps a 6, 7, 8 or 9 high flush) he might think you have a better flush card, and that might account for the pause. I think either play more aggressively to try to win the pot or get out of the hand. Four card flushes are tough to play, and I don't even bother drawing to a weak one like that unless my hand also has something else going for it (paired up, or a straight draw...).

-K_squared