party poker bad beat jackpot

[slimshaggy]

can anyone give an analysis on how big the jackpot would have to be in order to justify playing ANY straight flush draw preflop (even a 3 gapper) in light of the odds of someone else having a staight flush or quad 8's or better in the same hand?

[Firefly]

Wrong fourm, try probability or general.

[DVC Calif]

You have to be joking. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

If not, your better off posting this in the Zoo (Internet Forum).

Steve

[slimshaggy]

You're right about wrong forum but no i'm not joking. I'm guessing that when the jp gets up where it is now ~$400,000 that u're problly getting pretty close. Just a curious thought i had but sorry to waste time here. This is ususally the only forum i read so just posted here without thinking.

[DVC Calif]

No problem. BTW, what's your Party S/N? Can I add you to my Buddy list?

[PokerNeal]

I started playing poker about a year back.

I have become an addict.

I have played in thousands of online tourneys.

Not once have I had my quads beaten by a better hand.

[PokerNeal]

Ohh, did I mention the minimum criteria for a beaten quad hand to win this jackpot has to be 8's or better???

Gimme what you are drinking.... (or smoking)...

[zaxx19]

Thousands?? Does that incclude STT? Im assuming it must unless you multitable alot.

[PokerGoblin]

Keep in mind you are playing to lose that particular hand.

Party takes 10% off the top for an administration fee or some bullshit.

Then they take another 20% out to seed the next BBJ.

So you're only going to get 50% of what's left. For easy math purposes we'll call it 70%.

SO if the BBJ is 400k you'll get $140k (50% of 70%). So for any potential BBJ hand, you are getting 70,000 to 1 odds in a 2-4 game. The bigger the limit, the worse your odds are.

So how do you define BBJ possible hand? Any suited connector, or suited 1,2,or 3 gapper would fall under that category. Also, any A- x(x = 8,9,10,J,Q or K) combo would qualify in the event the board was like 8-8-8-10-10 and you held A-8 and your opponent had 10-10. You have to play both hole cards, so you would need a good kicker. With that in mind you could justify K-x or Q-x etc.

Now if you consider that you are going to fold after the flop doesn't meet BBJ conditions, and the pot is never raised preflop, how many times would you have to limp with crap to try to flop a mega-monster? The odds of a straight flush by the river are about 1/70,000. And that doesn't include the possibility of it losing. Put it to you this way, how many lottery tickets would you have to buy in order to win the jackpot?
Just play your normal game and hope for the best. Right now the jackpot is about 400k, just for being dealt in if it happens you'll score about 13k.

Later

PG

[Lurshy]

FWIW you can't be on the losing end of a str8 flush if you have 3 gapper (e.g. 2s6s) as no other str8 flush can beat you if you fill in. You could beat quads with the hand though for a 70K (25% Of 70%) payout in this 400K example.