Overpair = Must call?

[wegs the wegs]

Step 2 Tournament SitnGo on Party.
9 Handed I have about 700 chips
Blinds are at 15/30 I get JJ in MP+1.

Folded to me and I make it 120 to go. Folded to button (2800 chips) who calls. Blinds fold, it's two handed.

Flop is 10 8 3 rainbow. I make it 200 to go. Button pushed me all-in.

Now I thought about the opening day of the WSOP when Men the Master told a guy "Easy call" when the other player was taking too long about calling with his overpair.

However, earlier in the tournament I had TT in similar position, raised 5x BB and got called only by the villian. Flop was K 7 4 rainbow. I took a shot and fired 200. He called. Turn was a J. I check, he bets 400 and I fold. He shows AA.

What should be my move here with JJ? At this point I think it's a must call.

[Dominic]

you've only got 380 left - of course it's a must call! If you're beat, you're beat...but I'm guessing you're ahead at least 70% of the time here. It's much more likely he's got AT, KT, etc...than an overpair to your JJ right?

Call.

[BigHobo]

Must call, IMO.

He could have practically anything (since an attempted steal from your position is expected) but most likely he's got Tx.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Must call.

Since you must call, you should have just moved allin on the flop in the first place.

Your bet on the flop leaves you with only 380. You are pot committed. He is not. This is bad. You have to think ahead and avoid putting yourself in these awkward positions.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Must call.

Since you must call, you should have just moved allin on the flop in the first place.

Your bet on the flop leaves you with only 380. You are pot committed. He is not. This is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not sure i understand. do you mean that hero is pot-committed if the action goes bet-call on the flop? and that villain is not? i would have a hard time seeing villain folding on the turn or river after calling this bet - he's playing this pot with an effective stack size of whatever hero has.

the pot is 285 and hero has 580 on the flop. i would bet the 200 and then push on any turn.

oh, and yes, you should obviously call the F push. if you had more chips you would have a decision, but now you do not.

[wegs the wegs]

I called like any sane poker player would do.

He showed KK.

I said "Got me again on that play" and left.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I called like any sane poker player would do.

He showed KK.

I said "Got me again on that play" and left.

[/ QUOTE ]

shouldn't that be "got me this time on that same play"?

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

the pot is 285 and hero has 580 on the flop. i would bet the 200 and then push on any turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Just because YOU know you're pot committed doesn't mean VILLAIN is even remotely aware of it. Bet whatever you think AT/KT will call here. If he has AA/KK/QQ you're toast either way you play it. Betting a reasonable amount on the flop (and getting your stack in the middle in two reasonable bets) lets you max your take whatever % of the time you're ahead here.

[adanthar]

First off, this hand is not quite a 'must call'. It looks like you have to call because of the pot odds, but if you're drawing dead getting odds of 1,000,000:1, a hand can be a 'must fold'. Here, you have a suspicion that you're drawing to 2 outs; if you *knew* that for sure, you'd fold.

Now, as best I can calculate, the pot is laying you 3:1 or so. The question is very simple: is there a 75% chance he has an overpair as opposed to a T or something else?

Given that he has 2800 chips and hasn't gotten them all by osmosis, figuring out whether he'd coldcall AT or would make the same play with 99 is as simple as scanning through those hand histories.

If I were up against someone who played exactly like me (and he didn't know that I knew, etc.), this would be the easiest fold ever.