shaky turn play leads to river decision

[Chris Daddy Cool]

NO READS!!!!

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.66 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.83 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls.

River: (16.83 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero?

Oh btw, i think 3-betting the turn was probably the correct play and would make this hand much more simpler.

[jordanx]

You can fold this river.

Looks like MP1 has a Pocket pair 88-TT, perhaps QQ-AA, maybe JJ. CO has the 3(A3) or 44 as evidenced by his call on flop and turn and river raise.

Calling the turn is an easy mistake to spot after seeing the river was raised by CO, but at the table I can see making this decision in this position.

Raising the turn is a decent line, obviously folding to a cap, and you may be able to take a free showdown, but would likely bet anyways if checked to.

Calling this down is a decent line also, w/o knowing that MP1 would stop and go.

Folding the turn is probably weak w/o a read.

[wuarhg]

My gut says fold /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh btw, i think 3-betting the turn was probably the correct play and would make this hand much more simpler

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, cuz now you have coldcall the river /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the turn is a decent line, obviously folding to a cap, and you may be able to take a free showdown, but would likely bet anyways if checked to.


[/ QUOTE ]

You cannot fold the turn to a cap after 3-betting, you'll be getting something like 18 or 19:1 to make jacks full.

[dave44]

I normally wouldn't call the bet on the flop with AJ. I figure the hands he'd 3-bet with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK have me pretty well covered and can't even be sure which outs are clean. Wise?

[ElSapo]

I don't like the flop call, and that put you in a weird situation on the turn of having to call 2 bets. I drop it on the flop, I drop it on the turn, I drop it on the river. But i don't play this limit, so what do I know.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop call, and that put you in a weird situation on the turn of having to call 2 bets. I drop it on the flop, I drop it on the turn, I drop it on the river. But i don't play this limit, so what do I know.

[/ QUOTE ]

the flop call is iffy, but would it help if i told you i was pretty sure the limp-reraise was f.o.s.?

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
the flop call is iffy, but would it help if i told you i was pretty sure the limp-reraise was f.o.s.?


[/ QUOTE ]

In which case, why not three-bet the turn, since it looks like the raiser has the same thought you do, and caught a jack?

I still don't like it, but I understand it more if you think the LRR is crap. But if that's the case, why not put in another turn bet? There's a couple of cards you wouldn't mind folding.

This is a tough hand, I guess, and I'm trying to think about it logically. It's a situation I don't get into much b/c I tend to avoid it by folding the flop. But you had reasons for continuing and now we've got TPTK in a big messy pot against at least one person, and possible two, who are FOS.

Instinctively I say three-bet if you're ahead. But if you get capped, you're probably behind - problem is, as someone pointed out, I believe you have the right price to draw for a jack, yes? So if it gets capped and you have to call, you're certainly calling one more on the river.

So three-betting means five bets if it's capped, and possibly four bets if a guy who has you beat gets passive and just goes call-call.

It's messy. If you think the raiser has the same ideas you do, my instinct is still to three-bet, since there's some chance the FOS LRR'er will three-bet if you don't, continuing his moves. Your three-bet could freeze him out if he has KQ or something.

ElSapo

[jordanx]

[ QUOTE ]
You cannot fold the turn to a cap after 3-betting, you'll be getting something like 18 or 19:1 to make jacks full.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not even gonna make jacks full 1 in 20 times though.

You're more like a 24:1 dog to river another jack.

[jordanx]

[ QUOTE ]
the flop call is iffy, but would it help if i told you i was pretty sure the limp-reraise was f.o.s.?

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you think he was f.o.s?

When you say 'iffy' do you mean as opposed to raising the flop? You have overcards and a respectable redraw chance to a wheel or J-high flush. Raising the flop might slow down MP1, could by you a free card on the turn.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
You're not even gonna make jacks full 1 in 20 times though.

You're more like a 24:1 dog to river another jack.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, I was thinking of a 3 outer. Althought 2 outs is 22:1, its still possible we're going to get close if it gets capped between hero and the other two players.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop call, and that put you in a weird situation on the turn of having to call 2 bets. I drop it on the flop, I drop it on the turn, I drop it on the river. But i don't play this limit, so what do I know.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't play 15/30, and you guys are a lot more experienced than me, however what if we can put the villian on a range of hands he'd LRR with? Or the strong possibility that since this clown LRed after UTG already limped that its more likely he is full of it?

If he'd limp raise with AA or KK then you probably have about 2 effective outs since there are 3 ways to have AA and 6 ways to have KK. If he'd throw in AKs you have about 2.3 effective outs. If he'd LR with any AK or also QQ, I think it makes the call even easier.

I think if some of these assumptions were true, and especially if you had a strong suspicion that the LR was BS, calling on the flop getting almost 19:1 closing the action can't be that bad. The backdoor diamond draw might add a little to this call as well.

[Danenania]

A LRR in this situation usually means a weaker hand that has decided to gamble it up, not a premium hand.

[ElSapo]

CDC - I'm actually curious how this one played out...

[Redeye]

That was part of my point, I guess. Usually the LRR is complete BS from what I've seen in these cases. However, my thought was that if the LRR was a premium holding and there was some range of hands this could be done with (AA, KK, AKs, or something), that getting close to 19:1 a call might be ok here. Further adding this to the probability that it is BS, I think a call on the flop becomes easier.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

so yea i'm getting roughly 20-2 (10-1) on this call but would hate to see it come back to me 3-bet or capped.

the action in this hand was so bizarre that i felt like looking them up but decided that i was losing to some very possible hands, A2, A3, 44 to name some, so I folded.

btw i thought MP1 was full of it but CO had me beat.

MP1 had A4 and CO had J6o and my hand would have been good. boo me. /images/graemlins/frown.gif