Small sample, but........... regarding streaks

[dogmeat]

There was a post yesterday about going a long time without any flushes.......it happens, we all know that.

My sample from today (really sucks) is for 2800 hands at Party Poker.

Flopped an open-ended straight or 4-flush: 42 times - made the hand 10 times

Flopped a gut-shot and played it: 38 times - made it 8 times

Played (mostly raises) Ak, Aq or Aj preflop 116 times - made a pair on the flop 18 times. ([censored] amazing, yes?)

Anyway, for you conspiracy buffs, these numbers play right into the idea that Party pays off bad hands or lets the fishes win more often and/or gets more money in the pot to juice the rake (since my gut-shots hit 2.3x more than they should have) (my oesd or 4-flush should have hit 14x and only hit 10) and (my ace-face should have made a pair on the flop 46x and only made a pair 18x).

Why is this posted under poker theory? Because the theory is that eventually everything closes-in on what the mathematical probability says is going to happen, and thus
I make the assumption that I will hit a ton of flops tomorrow. Streaks happen.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is this posted under poker theory? Because the theory is that eventually everything closes-in on what the mathematical probability says is going to happen, and thus
I make the assumption that I will hit a ton of flops tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

What happened today does not make you any more or less likely to hit a ton of flops tomorrow or on any other day.

[evain]

I don't think dogmeat literally meant he expected to hit the big hands tomorrow. We all know they will come ... and the next session is as good as any for it to happen.

cheers

evain

[ACW]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is this posted under poker theory? Because the theory is that eventually everything closes-in on what the mathematical probability says is going to happen, and thus
I make the assumption that I will hit a ton of flops tomorrow. Streaks happen.


[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying you're 28 pairs down on the average (I haven't checked the odds, but I'll accept your claim).

Theory doesn't imply that in another 1000 hands you'll be less than 28 pairs down on average. It does imply that 28 will be a smaller percentage of the total sample size.
I'm afraid that the most likely outcome is that you'll be permanently one bad streak behind the average player /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[jaybee_70]

Hi,

[ QUOTE ]
I make the assumption that I will hit a ton of flops tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad assumption. You know that right?

Joe

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]

I make the assumption that I will hit a ton of flops tomorrow.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry but this is very incorrect. Do you see why?

You'll actually hit a ton of flops this coming Tuesday. Make sure you play that day.

--Zetack

[dogmeat]

Yes. Today is no different than yesterday, but thinking I will hit more tomorrow always helps me sleep at night.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[joedot]

You can get those stats in pokertracker? Where? That's cool.

[soko]

there are filters, or maybe he was making it up for pity?

[dogmeat]

I suppose I have proven that streaks happen by using this particular sample. These are not available on PT, I used a pencil for two and a half days and found this the most interesting:

5300 hands
218 times I played an ace with a king, queen or jack
only 40 times did I make a pair on the flop which is 18.3 percent. Strange, the math says this should happen 32.4 % which would have been 71 times a pair or higher hit my hand.

Now granted this is a tiny sample, and when I did play a hand (with a caller) there was a higher chance that they too would have ace,king,queen or jack in their hand. However, these things happen and a streak is a streak.

The fact that this all happened on Party at the bad beat tables is a little curious, although I have been consistantly winning at Party for 13 months. Maybe I was due for a strange streak like this (about 100,000 to 1 that this could happen with so many chances), or maybe the software for the bad beat games is different, I don't know.

What I do know is that online poker is easily beaten and many people like myself make a living at it. I also know that if this streak had happened in a home game and comprised 5300 hands (which would be about a month of full time play) I would have to consider never playing with those players anymore, and because I do play for a living, I am going to pass on playing anymore of the bad beat games.

Is this idea foolish? Perhaps. However, self-preservation and the need to find games I can beat is most important to me (I took my biggest 3-day loss ever, about 200 big bets and almost $2000). So, maybe the competition was too tough and I hit a bad streak - so I'll look for easier games.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Megenoita]

Beginner question that unfortunately fits here: how do I check my draw %s, like how many OESD's I've hit in the last 20k, on PT?

Thanks,
M

[dogmeat]

Sorry, this type of stat is not available on Poker Tracker or I would scan down my entire history of 200K hands to find out for myself.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif