Is this a good middling opportunity?

STL opened at 6.5, and now it's 7.5.


When the .5 switches from one side to the other of a key value like 7, is this a good situation to middle?


natedogg

Nate, a middle is not what you are looking at here. What you would be doing is hedging, but only if you had bet the Rams -6.5. A middle is when one book has 6.5 and another has 7.5 and you can simultaneously bet the games. Most math says the 7 point middle is about a break even proposition. It might be a bit better than that since the 2 pt conversion began, but its not a great generator of profit since its rare to find. Now if you are thinking of hedging, ask yourself, why did I bet the Rams at 6.5? Chances are because you think they will win the game easily. So now you have a favorable number on a game where you think the favorite will cover. Why go back and give your value away? I never understand that. There are a few syndicates that will look over a board and anticipate later line moves. They are very sophisticated in judging where they think the line should be based on public opinion and will bet an early number hoping it goes their way. They have huge edges in that they often have 30 to 40 outlets to play into, including hard to get numbers through local bookies in different cities. This is not something a single person could do successfully in my opinion. First you would have to be right about the number moving, then you would have to have your edge coming over time by having the score land on the middle. Don't forget that middle number may not even be what you analyze the game at either, its just you spotted a number you think the public will bet one way so you try to catch a middle. Pros that is very difficult to do as many numbers don't move more than a half point all week and if you don't get that volatility you will never make money. Colleges have more moves, but college games don't land on numbers as reliably. So what I tell everyone over and over...forget about this perspective. If you are an advanced player with a sizable bankroll you can exploit it for small change, but I generally think the individual will only make a piddling amount on these edges. Stick to handicapping and line shopping for the best numbers on your selection, that is where your money will come from, not from playing the numbers themselves.

nt