Bet the river? Prima 500NL

[fimbulwinter]

Man, i'm getting my ass handed to me in this game lately. running flat, picking up constant 2nd best hands etc. so basically i'm seeing monsters everywhere I go, hence i'm posting this hand.

this one i'm not quite sure what to do. it's played against the same guy who i know is better than me, and worse he has position. dunno if I wussed out or what, but the whole hand was bleck to me. huge presumably dead money from the EP's, they were awful. their preflop agression does mean a good hand. these guys are weak/tight without the tight. I'm looked at as laggy. I've been playing a lot of pots and checkraising a lot with draws, which has worked pretty well against EP et.al. but (obviously) button has wised up and is doing a good job of biting my butt from his seat on my left. wouln't sit to his right except the other players were borderline missing a chromosome.

I have about 600 in CO, EP's both are around 400, but can't remember exactly. Button has us all covered by a mile.

Blinds 2.5/5

Preflop:
EP limps, EP+1 raises to 15, I call on CO with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif, button (good player) calls, EP calls.

Flop(50): 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif
EP bets 10, EP+1 calls 10, I raise to 70 total, button calls, EP's call.

Turn(330): 7/images/graemlins/club.gif
EP bets 10, EP+1 calls 10, I raise to 120, button calls, EP calls, EP+1 folds.

River(700): A/images/graemlins/club.gif
EP checks, I bet 200 out of my remaining stack of ~400...

gak.

results to follow ridicule /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

fim

[mr pink]

yikes. i dont know... given your description of him, i doubt he's drawing to the flush on that board. the only hands that makes sense in a slow-played 99 or an 89, hes not raising cause he's hoping to keep the EPs around. i guess you can't feel to good about your hand on the river, but you can't just check it to him... tough spot to be in.

peace - jeff

[soah]

I'm having a hard time seeing how a $200 bet on the river is better than pushing. I can't see button folding something for $400 which he'd call $200 with, and the other guy only has $200 left anyway. You're just giving button a chance to call you the times he has JTs (this seems like a possible holding, no?) but raise you when he has you beaten. And you surely aren't going to fold a full house on the end getting 9:2 or 11:2 on your call? I'm just confused by the bet.

And I'm assuming the turn card was the 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif or something btw.

[okayplayer]

I think I would raise more on the turn, say to $250 - $300. Then push the river. I would be a little frightened of the button cold calling twice (hopefully he doesn't have 99 or 89), but I am hoping he has JT /images/graemlins/heart.gif and EP has AK /images/graemlins/heart.gif . Given your action, I'd probably push the river, but I think a case can be made to check, but only if you think that the button will bet a worse hand and EP will call. This might get the button to value bet his straight and get a call by EP and then you can push (or call to be safe from a higher full house).

[soah]

Yeah, I meant to comment on the turn raise as well. Didn't understand why it was so weak.

[fimbulwinter]

oops, you're right. the turn was an offsuit 7.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

fim

ps- the river bet was a complete disaster. i dunno what i was thinking here; frankly the action on the two previous streets had me quaking in my boots.

[fimbulwinter]

turn raise was weak partly because i was trying to keep the EP's in the pot, who i assumed at that point were drawing almost dead and partly because the coldcall of the button has me thinking "nuts". this guy is good, like the best in the 500NL game and I'm not thinking he has anydraw except a S/F draw and with that i think he'd try to get me to lay down my hand, not let me bet it for him...

i dunno, the buttons actions as well as the beating i'd been taking up until then had me wanting to check the river through, but i thought there's no way im not betting a fullhouse on a straightening board on th river. that said, (i feel) there is a huge case to be made for slowing way down after the flop, even when i fill. kinda surprised everyone here wants to get their stack in the middle by the end of this one...

fim

[SideCash]

so what happen?

[bunky9590]

you dont think they'll call a push in that size pot? Selling it on the river? You had better be ready to call off the rest of it if you get raised. if your beat with those stacks, then you're beat, I expect you to win unless someone got uber passive with 99.

[Wayfare]

Quote: "it's played against the same guy who i know is better than me, and worse he has position."

Get up from the table and sit back down when you are across the table from him. Good players (look at the limit forum) are seat jockying all the time.

Quote: "button has wised up and is doing a good job of biting my butt from his seat on my left"

The interesting thing is that he didn't bite this hand up to the river. He just calls three straight raises. I am very surprised at this. It's hard to put him on a hand he would play like this except for 99 (or maybe JT). I honestly don't know if a "good" button would play JT this way, I surely would jack up the turn (or wait for the river). That being said I don't think you are getting away from this hand if he has exactly that.

I don't think EP got there -- he looks to have been on a draw the entire time and then checked the river. Therefore I don't know if going for overcalls is going to work, although it might. You have to think about your image, the opponent's image, and the fact that you are not laying down.

I think there are three options you can take:

Blocking bet (may miss value)
Check-raise all in on river (danger of checking behind)
Open push (may be called by worse hand but may scare off customers)

I don't necessarily think the blocking bet is a bad line here.

Also I think you have graduated to the mid-high stakes, and will find more experienced opinions there. I have never played 2-5 online.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Also I think you have graduated to the mid-high stakes, and will find more experienced opinions there. I have never played 2-5 online.

[/ QUOTE ]

WOOHOO FIMBUL!

Class of 2005...

ok not funny at all. Wayfare is right, I think. First time in a while a post says "Wrong forum, this is mid/high stakes." Normally it's the opposite.

[soah]

Hero has 400 left in a 700 pot and you're talking about blocking bets and check-raises? Your options essentially are to either push or check-fold. I can't figure out why anything else would make any sense. Either you like your hand and the money goes in, or you don't.

[SA125]

"Hero has 400 left in a 700 pot and you're talking about blocking bets and check-raises? Your options essentially are to either push or check-fold. I can't figure out why anything else would make any sense. Either you like your hand and the money goes in, or you don't."

Well said. I agree. Playing 87s and going full. Is there a better spot you'll ever get all your money in with it?

[gomberg]

"Hero has 400 left in a 700 pot and you're talking about blocking bets and check-raises? Your options essentially are to either push or check-fold. I can't figure out why anything else would make any sense. Either you like your hand and the money goes in, or you don't."

Wow - you're thinking about the game in the wrong way. The question here is what play has the highest EV.

Lets look at the push like you describe. Against the "great button player", he'll call you when you're beat and fold when he's not. The EP will almost surely fold as he missed especially with a call already (which beats you most of the time). - Hence, the bet sort of sucks unless you set that person up to call off some decent money on the river.

If you bet $200 as a blocking bet, you may entice a raise from a lesser hand (not likely) - but you'll get a straight to possibly call you with great pot odds, etc. In other words, he could call with a worse hand more often than just pushing. Also, he may not raise you with hand that beats you (again not likely) thus saving you $200 - maybe he goes for the overcall, who knows.

Granted, I would probably push still as that's my style of play, thus I get called more often when I make plays like that, but I think the $200 is fine.

Think EV, not "when to get the money in" - your bankroll will thank you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
"Hero has 400 left in a 700 pot and you're talking about blocking bets and check-raises? Your options essentially are to either push or check-fold. I can't figure out why anything else would make any sense. Either you like your hand and the money goes in, or you don't."


[/ QUOTE ]

I start sweating just thinking about putting that much into a poker pot. I wont be graduating from small stakes for a looooong time.

Fim, what is your BR to play this level?

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet $200 as a blocking bet, you may entice a raise from a lesser hand (not likely)

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're getting 9:1 to call the raise and you think a worse hand may raise you, then you've completely missed the point of a blocking bet. You don't have enough money left for a blocking bet to serve any purpose.

[ QUOTE ]
but you'll get a straight to possibly call you with great pot odds, etc. In other words, he could call with a worse hand more often than just pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

So let me get this straight (no pun intended). The button will chase a straight draw on the flop, call a turn raise with a made straight, and then fold to a half pot bet on a river blank?

[ QUOTE ]
Also, he may not raise you with hand that beats you (again not likely) thus saving you $200 - maybe he goes for the overcall, who knows.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like basing my strategy on hoping that someone will not raise me on the river when they have a big full house.

[ QUOTE ]
Granted, I would probably push still as that's my style of play, thus I get called more often when I make plays like that

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero was described as playing very LAGish in the very first post.

[gomberg]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're getting 9:1 to call the raise and you think a worse hand may raise you, then you've completely missed the point of a blocking bet. You don't have enough money left for a blocking bet to serve any purpose.


[/ QUOTE ]

The point of this blocking bet in this situation is to save you $200 once in a while when the button has A8 or 89 (because he's afraid of 99). In addition, the raise on the turn was weak, against a weak player, against a weak bet, which the button knows, so it is possible he could hold a straight-flush draw that hit a straight. If the player is good enough, he could call the turn knowing that there will be no follow through big w/out a full-house and can reasses on the river. So yes, a $200 bet could be called and a $400 could be folded in special circumstances.

I'm just playing devils advocate here and showing why the $200 bet on the end could be a decent play. It's an option at least.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like basing my strategy on hoping that someone will not raise me on the river when they have a big full house.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? If you check, he'll for sure know he's good if he has 89 or A9 and take his chances putting you in. If you bet, he could possibly call with those hands. It's a longshot, but $200 saved is $200 saved. Obviously, this is hugely player dependant and his view of you. I wouldn't base a strategy on this, but it's a factor in the equation.

Anyway, just my 2 cents...

[TrailofTears]

For the record, this hand has haunted me more than any other hand I have ever read on these forums. I hate you for posting it. It's like when a hot teacher asks a student to come into her office after school. The student really wants to be on the winning side of things and bang the teacher, but there is a pretty damn good chance he is just in deep [censored]. Now did you get a good poke on this one or were you just screwed metaphorically?

- ToT

[fimbulwinter]

Well, the more I think about this one, the less I like my play. I gotta disagree with some of the posters who can't wait to get their money in here because the range of hands i can put button on is super small and i really don;t like any of them.

Here's my thoughts round by round, maybe people can tell me where I'm diverging from their train of thought.

Preflop:
We're both somewhat deep, but this is a raised pot and so I expect to see big cards from the EP raisers and suited connectors/suited aces/pairs/possibly trapping overpairs from the LP's.

Flop:
given the action, at least one of the EP's has an overpair or overcards and its button I'm worried about. He knows i'm likely to call a raise with a SC, and so i doubt he's drawing to a straight when i may be already full or may have poisioned some of his outs via me holding a 78 and so JT's 7 outs are bad. I also don't think he'd play a flush draw like this. he knows i'd raise hard here with A9s or an 8, but I'm pretty sure if he held overcards + flush draw or a S/F draw he'd be trying to make me lay my hand down, not calling. this leads me to believe he wants draws to get there, which leads me to believe i'm properfcuked. the only other possibility is A8s, which i'm still behind.

Turn:
Now would have been the time to slow way the heck down. I've (hopefully) got EP's drawing dead and have A8 beat now too, but 89 and 99 still have me hurting bad. I feel i should have given the draws a freecard to hurt them, and pray button has the only hand I like here A8.

River:
well, every legit hand has me beat now, so i hate hate hate my bet. should have check/called for sure. this was a stupid $200 brainfart on my part.

Results:

He calls the $200 and EP pushes in for like 45 more, both of us call it...

Me: 87
Him: 89
and you're gonna love this
EP: AA

So i was sitting there shoveling money in drawing dead and then EP swooped in with a 4th quarter two outer to scoop a goliath pot. damn.

I discussed the hand later and asked him what he was thinking and he answered that I either had 99 and he was just going to have to lose calling me down, 87, which he really liked, or A8s. by the river he said he thought I had A8 and that's why he didn't raise me all-in because he saw the 200 bucks as a "I sucked out" milker and he said I'd surely fold without a boat and he wanted an overcall from EP with a big PP.


ni han suh

[Kirkrrr]

lol It's been so long I'm surprised I'm still even in the system! Hi everyone.

[ QUOTE ]
Either you like your hand and the money goes in, or you don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. He doesn't have the nuts here, so all "liking" will be relative based on the circumstances/action around him. Looking back on the hand, you were giving the button a chance to call with a flush draw, 2:1 on the flop and 4:1 on the turn, so that is a (okay, somewhat remote) possibility. The EP bets are indeed pretty moronic. I'd put a bad EP on a flopped straight that be believes is the nuts since paired boards usually don't mean anything to them.

I don't see pushing on the turn - you are called by the bigger full and you scare off any worse hands. As such, I think your value bet made sense. Also, any missed draws have a chance to make a last ballsy desperation bluff. I'm not laying this one down period.

Okay, now I'm going to read the results /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Kirk R.

[Wayfare]

That's a nice hand. I still don't think the blocking bet is a bad thing.

[gomberg]

I think you're being too results oriented. The button probably has you beat, so you could check / call or check / fold to his bet, but you have to have a rediculous read to make that play. I really like the blocking bet on the end, as it saved you $165 assuming you would have called the button's push on the end.

[Wayfare]

Just to reiterate why soah's point was not exactly correct: this exact result.

He saved 1/3 of his stack against two better hands and a giant pot. Simply because the pot gets big doesn't mean you have to go broke with the worst of it.

Throwing up your hands and pushing when you may not be good is only good if your hand reading skills are sorely lacking.