boringly simple heads-up all-in question

[felson]

here's a hand i played last night in a party sit-n-go (32 buyin, 226 first prize, 2nd and 3rd place win 32 back) to win a buyin into the party poker million semifinals.

down to 2 players

opponent: 6620 chips
me: 1380 chips

i have 32o and post 500 in the big blind, opponent
posts 250 small blind on the button.

opponent goes all in. he is not especially aggressive heads up, but given that i am short-stacked i suspect he could make this move with almost any 2 cards.

pot offers me 1880:880, or 2.14:1. 32o is 31.2% against a random hand, so I need 2.2:1. In a cash game, I fold and rebuy. But since this is a tourney, I called anyway, since I didn't want to have only 880 chips next hand and know that I would have to go all-in again.

fold or call? is it close?

[wiggs73]

Good points you made, but 32o is the worst possible heads up hand, and I see no point in risking your tourney on it. Wait for the next hand, there's a 100% chance it will be better than this one and a decent chance that it will be a lot better.

[Marcotte]

DS discusses this in TPFAP. Basically he says that you should pass up a good (or marginal) bet today for a chance at a better bet tomorrow. I think in his example he has you 2 positions from the BB with a 1xBB stack. If you get a marginal hand (say Q8o) he says you should fold and if necessary fold the next hand, going all-in on the blind. The reasoning is that it's likely that one of your next two hands will be better than Q8. (I'm not sure if thats the hand he used in his example, but you get the idea.)

Here, the situation is slightly different, because you've got a large portion of your stack already in. However, 32 is just about as bad as it gets. All-in on the next hand, whatever it is. (And probably the next one after that too).

[Paragon]

Usually I'm very mathematical, but when you're down this low you'll have to get lucky eventually and I usually take the worst of it here. My hope is to just suckout and double up, hoping to improve to a reasonable stack that lets me fold a few times. However, according to the math and EV like you said it is certainly better to fold here... Close decision for me, but I probably call and pray /images/graemlins/frown.gif

31.2% to get 2740 chips now -> 855
~50.0% to get 1760 chips next -> 880

(assuming he calls your allin next hand, no split pot, etc.)

Edit: this question is really bothering me how I knowingly take the -chipEV choice. I don't like just blindly following my intuition, but I think if you do get lucky enough to get those 2740 chips you have a lot more room to breathe. Your folding equity will be stronger next hand if you decide to raise allin, plus your opponent may not attack as easily with marginal holdings since you can do some major damage now. Maybe this is just my irrational side trying to come up with excuses... I'm interested what others have to say.

[felson]

For those of you saying "fold, not close," would you still fold if I only had 1300 chips, so that the raise were only 800 and I had pot odds for the call? Or is there some other reason that it's not close?

FWIW, opponent had T7o and I won.

[rachelwxm]

If you believe you are against any 2, call. He is not going to fold next hand. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you saying "fold, not close," would you still fold if I only had 1300 chips, so that the raise were only 800 and I had pot odds for the call? Or is there some other reason that it's not close?

FWIW, opponent had T7o and I won.

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously the key question is whether he has any 2. look at it from his point of view (and assume he's both good and very quick with the math):

he can safely assume that you will call (32o is one of the very few hands you would even consider folding). if he has 32o, will be push? he would be risking 1130 to win a total pot of 2760, so he'd need to win 41% of the time to make pushing correct. therefore, he should not push in with the worst of the worst.

now, does that make 32o more or less attractive? it would seem like it would make 32o less attractive, but if he's folding some of the worst hot-and-cold hands, he'll be folding some hands that dominate you. it's good if he's going to fold a hand like 82o, but bad if he's going to fold a hand like 45o. i'm not sure how that math balances out. and it also assumes that he has done quick math and realizes that he should fold some hands in this spot.

now if we assume that he is in fact pushing with any 2, here's a reason to call: if you fold, you'll be the SB next hand and will push any 2. assuming you double up, you'll then be playing your first hand where you have a decision to make on the BB, which is unappealing. i think this could be a reason that the sklansky rule "if you have x% of the chips heads up, you have x% chance to win" does not quite hold; i.e., the sklansky rule does not take into account who is the big blind.

if you call and win, then you'll have enough chips to be able to make a decision, and it will be on your SB.