What *was* I thinking?...

[Gar Pike]

Playing in a Party $20 multi, several hundred away from the money, say about 2500 in chips. SB, I have JJ (don't you just love these JJ questions?)

Blinds are 50/100, EP minraises, fold to short stack (say, 550) in MP who goes all in, fold to Large stack in LP (say, 2300) who goes all in. EP has me covered.

Me?

I have no reads on amy of the players, but the table in the last 6 or 8 hands has been prety tight. I'm thinking one of these guys has a PP bigger than J's. Probably the EP minraiser. I can pretty much discount the small stack, the LP reraise looks like an isolation play. I would shove it right in if it were just them.

If I call the LP's all in, though, I'm stuck for most of my chips, and I fear the big stack yet to act.

I think I'm maybe 60/40 to the small stack, either 50/50 or 80/20 to the LP, take your pick, and if the EP calls (say, 60% chance), 20/80 to him.

so, worst case, about 12:1 dog, (30% of the time), middle case about 10:1 (30% of the time) 2:1 dog 20% of the time and almost even money 20% of the time.

Looks like about a 20% chance to get 2.2:1 does that seem reasonable?

And fold.

regards,

Gar

[swede123]

Easy fold for me given the circumstances you mention.

Cheers,

Swede

[SossMan]

pretty standard fold, as far as JJ folds go.

[cferejohn]

So min-raise (which could be a lot of things, depending on the the player, but certainly a monster is possible), desperation all-in (could be any pair, most aces, and possibly KQ), and an isolation all-in, which to me implies a minimum of TT or AK if the player is reasonable.

I would worry about LPs isolation more than I would worry about EPs min-raise, but either or both could easily have you beat. I think this is a fold, and I don't think it is that close.

[Gar Pike]

Results in white...<font color="white"> Well, as you can imagine, the reason I posted this is because 1st all in had 66, 2nd all in had 88, and EP minraiser folded. Board helped no one, I was P'd O. Still trying to get away from validation by results, I guess... </font>

So, this leads to another question. When you are estimating risk/reward, do you apply a, call it Coefficient of Reasonableness, based on some factor like buy-in, maybe? Quantifying, I guess, your estimation of how likely your opponent is to be playing reasonably. In the absense of having a specific read or notes, of course.

Another question, would you have called if there was no one left to act?

Thanks for the replies, guys

Gar

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Results in white...<font color="white"> Well, as you can imagine, the reason I posted this is because 1st all in had 66, 2nd all in had 88, and EP minraiser folded. Board helped no one, I was P'd O. Still trying to get away from validation by results, I guess... </font>


So, this leads to another question. When you are estimating risk/reward, do you apply a, call it Coefficient of Reasonableness, based on some factor like buy-in, maybe? Quantifying, I guess, your estimation of how likely your opponent is to be playing reasonably. In the absense of having a specific read or notes, of course.

Another question, would you have called if there was no one left to act?

Thanks for the replies, guys

Gar

[/ QUOTE ]

no, they just happened to be on the extreme low end of the hand ranges that time. Most of the time, you are in a bad spot there. Don't fret, good fold.

[Potowame]

You where thinking my JJ sux right now, which by the way is what most reasonable players (good) would think.

laydowns like these are what win trnys, not how you doubled up with AA twice. This is a isolated case that you where wrong, I wouldn't let that factor effect your future play.