Blind steal turns into big money

[swolfe]

Party NL $1BB

Villain is a SLAG (slightly loose-aggressive, VPIP 29, PF 8, AGG 5) with $48. Hero has $53. I've been playing uber-tight (VPIP 5%, PF 5%, no showdows in the 40 hands I've been sitting there...wasn't getting any cards).

Folded to Villain who completes in the SB, Hero checks in the BB with 98o.

Flop: ($2) 4-7-9 (rainbow)

Villain min-bets $1, Hero raises to $4, Villain min-raises to $7, Hero calls

Turn: ($16) T (completes rainbow)

Villain bets $20, Hero ???

[swolfe]

I'm pretty sure that this was just a (very weak) steal attemp on the flop, but this fairly big over-bet confuses me a little. It seems like it doesn't want a call, and is incongruous with the min-bet/min-raise from the flop round. It seems to me that the T may have improved Villain, but I'm not sure. In addition to my pair of 9's I also have an open ender, giving me 10 outs (clean unless Villain has KQ)..if I'm not ahead.

Results later...

[ericlambi]

I think your villain has something pretty good . . . set, 2 pair, maybe an overpair that he slowplayed. I think you are behind and not getting the odds you need to draw at your straight. This all seems too aggressive for a steal to me. I would fold.