NCAAB 1/5

[NoChance]

There are a couple more games tonight that qualify for the "Unranked team at home favored against a ranked team" trend.

YTD: 3-1

These situations will start coming up more often now that conference games are beginning to be played. For today:

(18) Alabama
Vanderbuilt -2

(23) West Virginia
Villanova -3

If you follow this trend, take Vanderbuilt -2 and Villanova -3.

[mace25]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a couple more games tonight that qualify for the "Unranked team at home favored against a ranked team" trend.

YTD: 3-1

These situations will start coming up more often now that conference games are beginning to be played. For today:

(18) Alabama
Vanderbuilt -2

(23) West Virginia
Villanova -3

If you follow this trend, take Vanderbuilt -2 and Villanova -3.

[/ QUOTE ]


i like vanderbuilt tonite also... but i have to ask.. what is your theory? i didnt get the info on the trend you are talking about. ???

would the ranked team be favored? why does the underdog cover?

[NoChance]

This was a trend I read about in a book back when I was in college. The basic principle behind this theory is that when the general public sees a ranked team as an underdog, they tend to bet on the ranked team. This usually keeps the line down a few points from where it actually should be. In the long run, these extra points add up to a higher than normal win percentage.

I have bet/tracked this trend for 15 years now. In college it made a believer out of me. It usually hits between 60-70% each season. However, about 3 years ago it went 25-4. Last year was rough and it was barely above .500. This is the only trend I follow religeously each year as it has never let me down. It seems if it isn't quite a great year, it still breaks even.

Anyway, that's the theory behind it. You always end up betting on a team that is at home. You always get a team with it's best effort because they feel they have something to prove agaisnt the ranked team. You always end up getting a team that is ranked just outside the bubble and normally ends up ranked the following week. So, it's not like the unranked teams are bad teams. Las Vegas knows what it's doing when it sets the line. The public just alters the line a little bit in most cases because they can't believe a ranked team is not favored.

[mace25]

allright... makes sense. i am going to give it a shot tonite..... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i was going to take vandy anyways... so i might add VIL. to the mix and see what happens.

[CCx]

This is an interesting trend - I'm gonna take a flyer on these two games tonight and check it out - keep us updated throughout the year as these situations present themselves for those who aren't in full NCAABB mode yet /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[CCx]

wow, villanova is smoking them looks good so far!

[NoChance]

Great start but still need the other or its a small loss for me.

[mace25]

[ QUOTE ]
Great start but still need the other or its a small loss for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome start.

i won that game, and BC vs. UCONN.

lost on duke.

would LOVE a nice win on the 10:00 game. lets wait and see.

[mace25]

well, with ten min left in the game... i think we got it.


thanks for the looks.

[Raven70]

Good call on the games! I second CCx -Thanks for the tip. Look forward to any future "heads ups" with this trend!

[NoChance]

Looks like they both came in.

There are usually about 30 of these each year. I looked ahead at the next few days and it looks like there could be a couple on Saturday with quite a few ranked teams on the road against tough conference opponents. Nothing until at least Saturday though.

[CCx]

AWESOME, took each for $100 and a $100 reverse on both, solid!

[Hombre]

Nice call. I also took Vandy and Nova last night. Noticed that Houston was a home dog against Louisville (ranked #17). Line was 10.5 and U of Houston won the game..

There are a couple tonight but I don't like the matchups as much as last night.

Arizona at Cal Cal +5.5

Washington at USC USC +6

Placed small bets as I'm interested in your theory..

Hombre

[NoChance]

I only take the unranked teams if the unranked team is on their home court and the Las Vegas opening line has the unranked team as the favorite. The ones you listed for tonight are underdogs. This does not grab the attention of the public nearly as much as a ranked team getting points and therefore does not have that added value. See above.