poker never seizes to baffle me

[Jordan]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t1460)
MP1 (t1555)
MP2 (t1830)
CO (t1305)
Button (t1625)
SB (t2145)
Hero (t1825)
UTG (t1755)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls t100, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (t250) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, Button calls t150.

Turn: (t550) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>, Button calls t400.

River: (t1350) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t975</font>, Hero calls t475.

Final Pot: t3300

Maybe I am just losing my touch, but I can't seen to do anything right. I bet this flop to try and win it right there, or possibly build a pot should i hit my openended straight draw. When he called I could have sworn he had a weak ace. The turn gave me my striaght, and I was just trying to get the money in at that point. Of course the money went in and he showed me JK for the nuts. Am I correct in my play of the hand?

This is a $20+2 one-table on stars btw.

[Mystic]

Yet another hand post that serves no purpose. It's unfortunate. You know it. What sort of response are you looking for? Do you expect to be advised you should have put him on JK and check folded the turn or river?

Hands like this occur all the time. Get over it, move on to the next tournament, play your A game again and don't give it another thought. Really this couldn't be simpler.

Too many unlucky (or bad, whatever) beat posts are starting to ruin what once was a superb forum. What's unfortunate is that this means that some of the more interesting posts are sometimes missed with no responses.

Please everyone refrain from wasting other's time with posts like the above.

Mystic

[Jordan]

You're right. I've just been really frustrated lately, and felt the need to vent. My apologies.

[floppy]

Actually, others with much more experience seem to disagree with Mystic's opinion of many "useless" posts in general:

1 Table Forum Health Checkup (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1476541&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1)

And I'll have to disagree with Mystic on this post in particular. I think you could have gotten away from this. Once Button calls your bet on the turn, I think you have to think that KJ is a distinct possibility. You've bet hard twice into button, and he's called you twice. If he were protecting a pair/two-pair, wouldn't he have played back on either the button or the turn?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
And I'll have to disagree with Mystic on this post in particular. I think you could have gotten away from this. Once Button calls your bet on the turn, I think you have to think that KJ is a distinct possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is maybe the worst advice i've ever read. i would burn money before i folded that hand. if you had 300 blinds in your stack the money would have to go in.

the only interesting question in this hand is whether or not to bet the flop. if villain is aggro, i would check-raise all-in on the flop (thinking that an aggro would have raised Ax and will bet w/o a hand). against an unknown, i like the the bet.

and you want "ceases" instead of seizes in the subject.

[phifediggy]

[ QUOTE ]
and you want "ceases" instead of seizes in the subject.

[/ QUOTE ]

damn schwza, you beet me to it.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and you want "ceases" instead of seizes in the subject.

[/ QUOTE ]

damn schwza, you beet me to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

eye assume that was intentional...

[phifediggy]

of coarse

[DrPhysic]

Dan Quayle wood be proud of this sheet.

[citanul]

i was one of those who disagreed with mystic in general.

in specific, there are of course worthless threads.

for instance, this thread, the hand pretty much plays itself, once you have the second nuts on this board, you're going in, in some fashion very close to the way the OP did.

look, everyone, threads like this are going to happen, where someone is frustrated and losing, and it sucks, so they vent. almost uniformly, they get flamed a bit, and again almost uniformly, they say "i'm sorry, i'm just having a shitty run lately, i know better." and then the whole issue is over, and the post dies.

we all hate seeing the bad beat posts and all, and the "why play these, they clearly aren't beatable" posts, but they're going to happen, and we've got to learn to live with them, read and respond to the better posts, and that process will bury awful posts pretty quickly.

citanul

[floppy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And I'll have to disagree with Mystic on this post in particular. I think you could have gotten away from this. Once Button calls your bet on the turn, I think you have to think that KJ is a distinct possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is maybe the worst advice i've ever read. i would burn money before i folded that hand. if you had 300 blinds in your stack the money would have to go in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why not check call the river? He has about 1000 left at that point, and has made a very healthy amount of money if his straight is good.

[chet]

Next time, Cease the Day!

[PE101]

Something tells me that many on this forum are too young to get this reference. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[floppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Something tells me that many on this forum are too young to get this reference. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again proving that our previously-thought unlimited supply of snark may be running out. How will future generations make subtle references to our near past if they don't remember their Robin Williams films? I think mandatory pop culture classes in our public schools are in order.

Carpe Moneta!

(ObPoker: Seriously, what about check calling the river on that hand? Villan has the nuts, but doesn't know that you'll go all in no matter what, so they may give you a discount.)

[rybones]

so, I agree with citanul. The problem for many of us who are not quite newbies and yet not really experienced is that many of the hands I want to post I am afraid will read like a bad beat as I lost the hand. However, it is those same hands I wonder about all night trying to figure out if I could have seen the result coming. Like this person, I find myself losing tons from the bb when I think I really have the nuts. At the 10 and 20 sng level you will often check from the bb with 5 or more in the hand. You can't very well fold from bb and with a flop like that, what the hell. (Myself I think I would have checked the flop as there were others to act and maybe called a bet. and check called to the river, but that seems awfully weak?) Alas, I have not posted many hands lately as some of my post got few responces and I knew it was people saw them as bad beats. I guess I am cool with that, but how am I then to know if I should play the above hand weakly as I described above or agressively as this guy did?

Anyway for those of you who hate bat beat posts, I encourage you to look for the phrase "could I have seen this coming." You don't have to respond, but maybe the poster may be genuine in his/her desire to learn.

Just my thoughts,

Ryan

[rybones]

see, it's funny that no one even responded to my previous post. lol

[morgan180]

this thread kneads to cease and desist

[Jordan]

Doesn't check/calling let a lot of weaker hands off too easily if they check behind? The more I think about it, the more I'm happy with my play, it just sucks that I ran into the nuts. I think I was just being too results oriented about it when I posted. Thanks for the posts, and the humor regarding "seize" vs "cease". I'll be more careful next time /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[floppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't check/calling let a lot of weaker hands off too easily if they check behind? The more I think about it, the more I'm happy with my play, it just sucks that I ran into the nuts. I think I was just being too results oriented about it when I posted. Thanks for the posts, and the humor regarding "seize" vs "cease". I'll be more careful next time /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You bettor! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Curious, I tried figuring out how many weaker hands would likely call, and what the equilibrium point was for being busted out by the nuts:

Let p(nut) = prob villan has the nuts and puts you all in
Let p(reraise) = prob villan reraises without the nuts
Let p(call) = prob villan calls without the nuts

The money in the pot is considered dead, since villan can never fold the better /images/graemlins/smile.gif hand.

Making a simplifying assumption of a 500 raise and a 500 reraise, for the move to be +ChipEV:

p(nut)*(-1000) + p(reraise)*(1000) + p(call)*(500) &gt; 0

equivalent to

p(nut)*(-1000) &gt; -p(reraise)*(1000) - p(call)*(500)

equivalent to

p(nut)*(1000) &lt; p(reraise)*(1000) + (p(call)/2)*(1000)

So

p(nut) &lt; p(reraise) + p(call)/2

There are 16 combinations that give villan KJ

Based on the betting, I can see pocket pairs from AA to 99 consecutive going to the river and calling the 500 bet. That gives 6 * (6 combinations per pocket pair) = 36, so that's already ahead of p(nut). That doesn't include AK - A9 for another 5 * 16 = 80. So yeah, you're way ahead with hands that are very likely to call.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Yet another hand post that serves no purpose. It's unfortunate. You know it. What sort of response are you looking for? Do you expect to be advised you should have put him on JK and check folded the turn or river?

Hands like this occur all the time. Get over it, move on to the next tournament, play your A game again and don't give it another thought. Really this couldn't be simpler.

Too many unlucky (or bad, whatever) beat posts are starting to ruin what once was a superb forum. What's unfortunate is that this means that some of the more interesting posts are sometimes missed with no responses.

Please everyone refrain from wasting other's time with posts like the above.

Mystic

[/ QUOTE ]

relax.