Breakthrough! [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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private joker

01-05-2005, 06:00 AM

Sometimes the 2+2 discussions, now that I'm addicted to them and spend too much time posting/reading, are rattling around in my head while I'm 2-tabling. I've got so many advanced concepts spinning around (should I wait for the turn to raise? If I bet, will a worse hand call? Do I want to check-raise to thin the field and clean up overcard outs, or do I want to bet out and build a pot for my draw? etc. etc. etc.) that -- as I say -- I sometimes forget the ABCs or FPS myself into eschewing them for trickery.

But then I set myself straight and combine the best arguments on all threads, applying concepts where they deserve to be applied, and extract larger pots for my good hands. The following is an excellent example. Earlier today, a few of us were debating when it's okay to slow play, as in KK on a flop of K73 rainbow. In another thread, the concept of check-raising the turn to feign weakness that you whiffed on overcards and get an extra bet or two in was introduced.

In this hand, I decided *not* to slowplay my set of Ks on the ragged flop to *set up* a potential turn check-raise. Button in this hand hadn't gotten out of line yet, so when he cold-called my PFR I put him on a big ace or a PP. I loved the turn card because while I bet fast on the flop, I paused and checked the turn as if I was scared of the ace. Luckily Button had an ace and bet into me -- and even 3 bet the turn! I got to cap it, hence 4 bets on a street where I rightly should have only gotten 2. This was a fairly large pot for heads-up action, and it was all because I finally got it through my thick head to apply a variety of concepts we've discussed *just today* on this board -- and in the right places at the right times.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kd Kh (three of a kind, kings).
Button has Jd Ah (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.25 BB.

bdk3clash

01-05-2005, 06:05 AM

private joker

01-05-2005, 06:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
<sniffle>

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm all growns up. Little Mikey's all growns up!

housenuts

01-05-2005, 06:14 AM

i like it. the only thing i disagree with is you say if you had bet out the turn you probably would have only got 2 bets but instead you got 4.

had you bet out, he probably would have raised with his ace. this then allows you to raise again. thus 3 bets. now if he gets really silly and caps it this could be where it gets interesting.

now you check the river. he probably thinks he is good and bets out. now you can raise and get even an extra bet.

however i think your line was better and regularly make more money but i'm just sounding out other ideas because i feel like replying to other people's posts as opposed to simply posting my hands and expecting replies. i also don't think i would ever play a hand that way but it sounds nice.

i made a resolution to attempt to reply to more hands so hopefully you'll see more of me.

private joker

01-05-2005, 06:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]

had you bet out, he probably would have raised with his ace. this then allows you to raise again. thus 3 bets. now if he gets really silly and caps it this could be where it gets interesting.

now you check the river. he probably thinks he is good and bets out. now you can raise and get even an extra bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely think your line has merit, but:

1) betting out will likely only get one raise; yes I could 3-bet, but he likely won't cap with a single pair of aces. And possibly, my betting out showing that I'm not scared of the Ace represents AK and so even AQ & AJ will just call -- then I just get one bet in.

2) even if I'm successful with 3-betting the turn, I don't think he'll raise a river bet or bet if checked to after I've made the last aggressive move and he doesn't improve. Getting my 4 bets in on the turn is more valuable because in his mind he's not drawing dead.

3) if I check-raise and he 3-bets, I have the option of smooth-calling and check-raising the river. Same 5BB as my cap-the-turn line, but it involves one more risk that the river might check-through; still, check-raising this turn opens more doors.

With my line I get 5BB on the big streets, and with yours I think it's 2-4BB at most. But who knows? I'm learning as I go...

housenuts

01-05-2005, 06:44 AM

yours definitely makes more sense and as i even said in my post i couldn't even see myself doing what i was advocating. i just like writing things down and seeing how it looks. sometimes you come up with stuff you never would have thought about or remembered otherwise.

how come you only play 2/4? you seem to have enough smarts, and 800 posts represents enough time/experience to play higher. are you building a bankroll?

bdk3clash

01-05-2005, 07:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how come you only play 2/4? you seem to have enough smarts, and 800 posts represents enough time/experience to play higher. are you building a bankroll?

[/ QUOTE ]
Different strokes. I played like 200,000 hands of $1/2 for a bunch of reasons, one of them my being overly risk-averse with regards to my poker bankroll and making pretty regular withdrawals.

I only recently moved up to $5/10 and $10/20; I make a lot of crap posts and have moved up in levels somewhat slowly by 2+2 standards.

housenuts

01-05-2005, 07:07 AM

how many hands would you say you need to get a decent indication of how you're doing?

bdk3clash

01-05-2005, 07:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how many hands would you say you need to get a decent indication of how you're doing?

[/ QUOTE ]
How I'm doing? That's easy enough to figure out--you don't even need Pokertracker to know your results. I'm not sure what question you're trying to ask.

housenuts

01-05-2005, 07:20 AM

sorry. not you, but how many hands would one need to play to have a decent gauge as to how they are doing in your opinion.

bdk3clash

01-05-2005, 07:23 AM

Please to define "how I'm [you're] doing."
Be specific. I still don't understand what you're asking. And I'm not trying to be a smartass, honest.

private joker

01-05-2005, 07:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]

how come you only play 2/4? you seem to have enough smarts, and 800 posts represents enough time/experience to play higher. are you building a bankroll?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're like the 6th person to ask me this and now I'm feeling pretty lame. I've got quite a bit of debt from student loans and credit cards from being a struggling writer in Los Angeles for a few years after school before getting the middling-paying job I have now. I don't build a bankroll -- all the gravy I get from poker goes to Sallie Mae and MBNA. Thank heavens poker is paying some of this off, but just in case I go through a bad downswing I can't risk money I don't have.

When I play live I'll play up to 4/8, because I don't log enough hands at B&Ms for a downswing to affect me that bad. It's frustrating that it takes money to make money, even when you try to manage your finances responsibly.

(Also, even though I could potentially beat 5/10 games, it wouldn't be near the winrate I have for 2/4, and it's more satisfying to win, say, 25BB at a 2/4 session than 10BB at a 5/10 session -- even though the end result is identical. And I think I have a lot to learn before I'm confident enough to go above 5/10).

housenuts

01-05-2005, 07:29 AM

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

are they a winning player, losing player, lucky SOB, etc.
the question is how many hands does one need to play to get an accurate representation of their abilities.

now we've fully taken over private joker's thread. /images/graemlins/blush.gif
sorry.

bdk3clash

01-05-2005, 07:35 AM

I dunno (my typical response, eh?), I kind of suck at the stats stuff. I would guess you'd need 10,000-20,000 hands to accurately say "So and so is a winning/losing player" from a statistical standpoint and many more than that to start figuring out expectation. I could be way off.

Practically, it's a lot easier for me to figure out who the losing players are than who the winning players are. If I can tell from one B&M or online session that you suck and play way too many hands, I'm pretty sure you're a long-term loser. But hey, maybe I'm wrong and you're really good postflop.

But, if someone is all tight and aggressive preflop, they can still be a losing player if they suck postflop and are all weak-tight and shit. That was pretty much me when I started playing, but according to my records I ended up a (marginal) winner before breaking out of my weak-tight shell and embracing my inner donk.

housenuts

01-05-2005, 07:37 AM

i too am in a bit of a pickle with student loans. i got a loan out my first year, and then last year (my 2nd) i didn't tell them i was going back to school. i thought they found this out on their own but apparently i was supposed to tell them. because i had moved they were unnable to contact me about beginning to repay my loan. when they finally tracked me down 8 months later they said they had transferred my debt to a collection agency for repayment.

so although i was supposed to have an interest free loan throughout my school years, because of my ignorance, and their hasty actions, i now have a large debt that is building interest while i am in school and paying other bills.

i see poker as a way to get rid of this. i think i can pay it off faster (thus less interest) by accumulating money at bigger games. i think it would take too long (and be a misuse of my time) to play 2/4 in effort to repay this debt. i have yet to cashout any winnings but i now have a very healthy bankroll for 5/10. i can't see myself progressing beyond this any time soon.

right now i'm not happy with student loans but if i can have poker pay it off it would be great to finish school and not even have a debt.

Kirg

01-05-2005, 07:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

are they a winning player, losing player, lucky SOB, etc.
the question is how many hands does one need to play to get an accurate representation of their abilities.

now we've fully taken over private joker's thread. /images/graemlins/blush.gif
sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm also not sure how specific your question is, but Homer's Thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1342415&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1) will give you an answer to your question no matter how specific (50%, 75%, 99%) you want to be

ddubois

01-05-2005, 08:48 AM

Sorry, but I don't think you should break your arm patting yourself on the back here. Unless you had a very specific read that this player would react emotionally to a check-raise and 3-bet, I think your weighted average of possible outcomes based on either line favors leading out.

If by some fluke he has AK, we can probably get 4 bets in regardless. So assuming he has some other big ace:
bet/call = 20%
bet/raise/3bet/call = 75%
bet/raise/3bet/cap = 5%
2.65 BB

check/check = 5%
check/bet/raise/call = 75%
check/bet/raise/3bet/cap = 20%
2.3 BB

You can play with these numbers if you think they are off. True, if you have a real good read that this guy's response to a CR will be "won't push me around" or think you are "making a move", bumping up that last 20% number a reaonable amount, then you made the right play. But that's not a mistake I could feel strongly my opponent will make. Far more often the villan will go "Damnit, he did have AK" and call down.

On the other hand, add in the weighted averages of the possible lines when he has some pocket pair and it gets very complicated. A CR might get one BB from a hand he would have folded on the turn had you led... or it might get checked behind... or it might get him to fold a hand like 99 that he would have called down to the river with.

spydog

01-05-2005, 09:02 AM

I think this is a good spot to try this move, but only against opponents who are somewhat aggressive. If your opponent is LP-P and checks behind the turn, you will puke when he shows Kx and you realize you lost a bet for no reason. So, people must take caution in not making this a 'standard' play.

Monty Cantsin

01-05-2005, 04:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This was a fairly large pot for heads-up action, and it was all because I finally got it through my thick head to apply a variety of concepts we've discussed *just today* on this board -- and in the right places at the right times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the pot was large because your opponent is a dope. You can reasonably expect AJ to 3-bet this turn approximately never.

Preflop raise + AK board + turn c/r pretty much screams monster. You got lucky that your opponent was hard of hearing.

As far as the concept of c/r-ing to feign weakness, that's some third level shit that's only useful against a narrow range of thoughtful, observant players. These aren't the droids you're looking for.

I don't think this is a great spot to go for a c/r. I think dubbois' analysis of the situation is pretty solid and that's assuming villain has a big A. There are plenty of other hands he can have where he'll call a bet but gladly check behind.

I like this gambit much better when you have AA and the flop is ragged and the turn is an A or K. Or you have 99 and the flop is 9 high and the turn is an A or K.

Ok, I'm done peeing in the punchbowl - party on!

/mc

Rico Suave

01-05-2005, 04:16 PM

Monty:

[ QUOTE ]
These aren't the droids you're looking for.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your Jedi mind tricks won't work here, Monty.

--Rico

River2Pair

01-05-2005, 07:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As far as the concept of c/r-ing to feign weakness, that's some third level shit that's only useful against a narrow range of thoughtful, observant players. These aren't the droids you're looking for.

I don't think this is a great spot to go for a c/r. I think dubbois' analysis of the situation is pretty solid and that's assuming villain has a big A. There are plenty of other hands he can have where he'll call a bet but gladly check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. The dark side of this play:

4/8 at Hustler.

I open raise in MP1 or so with TT. I get cold called on my immediate left and everyone else folds.

Flop comes T92r.

I bet, he calls.

Turn is a K.

I figured that a lot of bad players' cold-calling hands contain a king. AK, KQ, KJ, KTs (/images/graemlins/grin.gif).

So I check intending to raise. I hoped he had one of the above hands or even something like 77 and would think I whiffed and that he would make a play for the pot, but he checked behind.

River was a Q.

I bet. He called.

I lost the the dreaded runner-runner straight (AJ).

He probably would have called the turn anyway.

BottlesOf

01-05-2005, 07:51 PM

Way to go Joker!

Nice hand!

sthief09

01-05-2005, 08:51 PM

sorry, but I wouldn't call that a breakthrough. I mean, betting the flop should be obvious. look, he had A high and he called you. when you check-raise the turn, it'll generally kill your action from an A, or save someone with a smaller pair a bet, since he won't bet for you. you just happened to run into a LAG that overplayed his hand. if you bet, he would've still raised you. I've toyed with this stuff a lot. I used to check raise more than anyone (ask sfer), thinking I was tricky, but I was just missing bets and giving free cards. trust me, it's not worth worrying about this stuff. learn how to play your marginal hands. your big hands are easy to play. just keep betting and raising until the hand is over.

private joker

01-05-2005, 10:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
sorry, but I wouldn't call that a breakthrough. I mean, betting the flop should be obvious. look, he had A high and he called you. when you check-raise the turn, it'll generally kill your action from an A, or save someone with a smaller pair a bet, since he won't bet for you. you just happened to run into a LAG that overplayed his hand. if you bet, he would've still raised you. I've toyed with this stuff a lot. I used to check raise more than anyone (ask sfer), thinking I was tricky, but I was just missing bets and giving free cards. trust me, it's not worth worrying about this stuff. learn how to play your marginal hands. your big hands are easy to play. just keep betting and raising until the hand is over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, trying to take your advice too. How's this one?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, SB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (14 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 16 BB

(Hint: I hope you say it's better, and don't dislike the smooth-call/raise-the-turn line)

sthief09

01-05-2005, 10:46 PM

I think either line is fine (3-betting the flop or waiting)

great value bet by the way

private joker

01-05-2005, 10:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]

great value bet by the way

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Many of the first several hands I posted here were examples of me checking behind on the river; it was a disease I never thought would go away, because I was always finding an excuse to check the river. Here would have been another -- three to a flush and four to a straight on a paired board no less; I'd just be happy if my overpair held up and I'd check. Now I'm realizing that because of the action, all of those hands (flush, straight, trips, boat) would be unlikely enough that the times I'm check-raised won't outweigh the times I get called by worse hands.

ebranig

01-05-2005, 11:58 PM

at least he didn't raise you with the nuts...

Monty Cantsin

01-06-2005, 02:12 AM

vnh

/mc

River2Pair

01-06-2005, 02:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
at least he didn't raise you with the nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

Further evidence that he isn't the thinking player to try something like this against...

arkady

01-06-2005, 02:16 AM

i think you got lucky that villain had a few bolts loose, don't let the poor play of others delude you.

private joker

02-11-2005, 05:30 PM

I wanted to bump this thread because I am still using this line very sparingly against players whom I can read will bite.

My opponent here was sort of an idiot -- he would call preflop with junk and then try to bluff with it. By checking the turn, I looked like I missed on AK and he took the bait. Then he had to call me down out of confusion, and look what he called with. Welcome to pwntown.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. UTG+2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 (poster) calls, 6 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Jd Js (full house, jacks full of sevens).
UTG+2 has 4c Ts (two pair, sevens and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.25 BB.

lu_hawk

02-11-2005, 06:04 PM

what if he coldcalled without an ace and checked the turn? i think betting the turn is usually going to be better.

SeeWillie

02-11-2005, 06:06 PM

Apparently the fvcktards have all moved up to 2/4, leaving none at 1/2 for seewillie! Great river bet, especially with the 7 falling on the river. If he had T7 (or God forbid 74), just imagine . . .

colgin

02-11-2005, 06:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
should I wait for the turn to raise? If I bet, will a worse hand call? Do I want to check-raise to thin the field and clean up overcard outs, or do I want to bet out and build a pot for my draw? etc. etc. etc.) that -- as I say -- I sometimes forget the ABCs

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate to break this to you but those are the ABCs. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I loved the turn card because while I bet fast on the flop, I paused and checked the turn as if I was scared of the ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would just lead the turn here. I think you have a better chance of getting in three bets that way when villain does, in fact, have an Ace than going for the C/R. Now given the way Villain did play this hand I think the turn was getting capped even if you typed "KK" into the chat box.

Anyway, it sounds like you are really geting on top of your game. Congratulations and keep up the good work (and good posts).

Colgin

private joker

02-11-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, it sounds like you are really geting on top of your game. Congratulations and keep up the good work (and good posts).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, but that was over a month ago. I think I've gotten worse.

/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

TheMetetron

02-11-2005, 09:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno (my typical response, eh?), I kind of suck at the stats stuff. I would guess you'd need 10,000-20,000 hands to accurately say "So and so is a winning/losing player" from a statistical standpoint and many more than that to start figuring out expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not enough. I'm losing .3BB/100 over the last almost 20,000 hands (all thats in my "current" database) at $3/6 and I'm definitely not a losing player there. I would say 100,000 hands is a good indication of where someone is. Then again, I'm not great at the whole stats thing.

Monty Cantsin

02-11-2005, 09:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]

As far as the concept of c/r-ing to feign weakness, that's some third level shit that's only useful against a narrow range of thoughtful, observant players.

[/ QUOTE ]

After re-reading this thread I finally realize that when you say check-raising the turn to feign weakness you mean the check feigns weakness, not the check-raise. Duh. That makes a lot more sense. Just thought I'd clear that up for myself. Carry on.

/mc

Chris Daddy Cool

02-11-2005, 09:39 PM