AQ party 15

[tl65\]

UTG+1 seems pretty solid, a little loose. SB is also a little loose and hasn't won a showdown since he sat down about orbits ago.


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 20.50 BB

I don't know how many people fold this preflop, but I went with it. What do you guys think?

[DeeJ]

Why are you calling and not raising the flop? What are you hoping happens that helps you but not the others (apart from what did /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) ?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

you don't neccessarily say how loose utg+1's raising standards are, otherwise you should probably fold AQo to an UTG+1 raise.

also your turn cap is not good.

[DeeJ]

Agree about the turn cap.

Preflop it depends as you say, but he could easily have 99/TT/JJ/KQs/AJs (ATs? AJo? 88? KQo?) against which I would be happy to see a flop with AQ. Only a pretty rockish rock would be with AK/QQ/KK/AA only here. Yes? No?

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop it depends as you say, but he could easily have 99/TT/JJ/KQs/AJs (ATs? AJo? 88? KQo?) against which I would be happy to see a flop with AQ. Only a pretty rockish rock would be with AK/QQ/KK/AA only here. Yes? No?

[/ QUOTE ]
The more pocket pairs the opponent can have, the worse equity Hero gets.
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 48.1906 % [ 00.42 00.06 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 51.8094 % [ 00.46 00.06 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }

Remove TT-88:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 49.2983 % [ 00.42 00.08 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 50.7017 % [ 00.43 00.08 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }

If our equity against the opponents range of hands is around 45 %, do we call preflop given the pot odds we get? Those numbers are showdown numbers, and the postflop play will affect them. If you're still behind when you hit an A or a Q you stand to lose more than you will win when you're ahead after you hit, no? Or is that made up the few times you make a better hand than one pair?

[2ndGoat]

I don't like the flop call rather than raise. Your hand is too vulnerable with that board to slowplay.

After calling the flop, your turn raise represents a slowplay or picking up the flush, so the SB three-bet is a bigger-than-usual statement. I'm not crazy about the cap unless you had a read you're not giving us (probably 7-14 outs, not enough to raise for value vs 2 opponents). I'll admit my initial instinct at the table would probably be to cap, but I think that instinct is wrong.

But the real question- did you win??? Dying to find out! &lt;duck&gt;

2ndGoat

[DeeJ]

Mmm lots of questions /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I don't want to offer the "it depends" answer even though it clearly applies. The fact that we're almost a coin flip suggests that it's close. I don't have stove here - does it get even worse if you go all the way down to 22 ?

[rigoletto]

Prelop raise is fine unless he's a really tight EP raiser. It really depends on UTG+1's perception of you. If he views you as tight you are likely to get it HU and take it on the flop or turn if he doesn't have a pair.

I don't mind the flop call, a raise will not protect anything, since they will most surely call it and a turn raise earns you more and makes any flush draw pay the max.

Turn raise is fine too, but I hate the cap. You are most likely behind and you risk folding UTG+1 in wich case you will get the same amount as from a call.

[tl65\]

[ QUOTE ]
But the real question- did you win??? Dying to find out! &lt;duck&gt;

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course i won. I had the nut flush /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[tl65\]

The reason for the turn cap was because I hoped to get that one more bet from someone without a heart if my heart came on the river. SB also had high aggresssion numbers on the flop and turn, both over 2 and his river aggression was just below 1, so I thought I could probably check it throught on the river if i don't het the flush.

By the way, SB said he had AA as he mucked on the river and UTG+1 had KK with the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif.