-EV into +EV

[Reef]

there was a related post where short term -EV plays may be +EV longrun. Example given was advertising plays.

I think another example that deserves further discussion is bad beat jackpot. If the bbj is over, say, 300k isn't it worthwhile to play *almost* any suited connector for 1 bet and 88+ for 2 bets no matter, or 3 bets with X players.

If you hit the jp, you're pretty much set for awhile. I'm sure the rules could be tweaked. But anyone have thoughts on this?

[ZeeJustin]

Playing a suited connector because of a jackpot becomes +ev if the jackpot is big enough. It's not turning a shortterm -ev play into a long term + ev play. It's simply finding the situation where it is in fact +ev.

It's the same as playing ATo. You're not gonna call EP raises with it because that's -ev, but if it's folded to you on the button, it becomes +ev.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing a suited connector because of a jackpot becomes +ev if the jackpot is big enough. It's not turning a shortterm -ev play into a long term + ev play. It's simply finding the situation where it is in fact +ev.

It's the same as playing ATo. You're not gonna call EP raises with it because that's -ev, but if it's folded to you on the button, it becomes +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

so maybe a better question is how big does the jp have to be to make say, XYs utg +EV.

[daryn]

yeah, you worded this wrong. short term -EV plays can never be +EV longrun. a play is either -EV or +EV, or EV neutral.

[mcozzy1]

The only problem in this case is that the long run may be longer than your lifetime.

The party poker jackpot, for example, has very difficult standards. I don't know the exact odds. Figure they probably have 100 jackpot tables going 24/7 and dealing 50 hands/hour. It seems like it goes about 3 days on average between hits.

You might go your whole life without hitting a big one with tough standards.