A "clear" value bet on the river? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : A "clear" value bet on the river?

JerseyTom

01-05-2005, 01:30 AM

Stats from this sitting only (55 hands).
CO is 28/13/1.71... not terrible postflop.
BB is 27/2/0.44... fairly undistinguised so far

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: JerseyTom is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, JerseyTom raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, JerseyTom raises, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, JerseyTom bets, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, JerseyTom...

So, is this a "clear" value bet against 2 opponents?

Harv72b

01-05-2005, 01:37 AM

I'd bet that river 99% of the time, with the other 1% being those rare occassions when someone gives me a tell on the straight card.

I think you're more likely to be up against a weaker K (and maybe a small PP) than a JT or hand with a 6 in it. Especially since neither player is terribly loose in your sample.

tipperdog

01-05-2005, 01:48 AM

Not as clear as it might seem. BB's check-call of TWO bets on the flop is strongly suggestive of a draw. With no 2-flush on the board and only 2 remotely connected cards (89), the only realistic draws he might have are 67 and TJ.

With 67, he would have popped you on the turn. However, he's played TJ by the book to this point, and it's a fairly obvious check-raising opportunity on the river.

If you think the BB is capable of a CR, I'd strongly consider checking behind.

pokerkai

01-05-2005, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not as clear as it might seem. BB's check-call of TWO bets on the flop is strongly suggestive of a draw. With no 2-flush on the board and only 2 remotely connected cards (89), the only realistic draws he might have are 67 and TJ.

With 67, he would have popped you on the turn. However, he's played TJ by the book to this point, and it's a fairly obvious check-raising opportunity on the river.

If you think the BB is capable of a CR, I'd strongly consider checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your giving the average 2/4 party poker play WAY too much credit.

CRYSTAL clear river bet.

JerseyTom

01-05-2005, 02:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Your giving the average 2/4 party poker play WAY too much credit.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, thanks for the feedback.

In the end I checked behind, though this seemed more and more incorrect (i.e. I should have bet) as I wrote this post. And I think the above quote sums things up best.

That said, my opponents had:
CO KhJh
BB A8o (?)
MHIG!