Do You Know Any Sports Bettors Who Do This?

Try to find the weakest teams and bet against them. Put a little differently, find big mismatches and bet against the weaker teams.


Why not find perceived big mismatches and bet, when you believe the perception is wrong, on the "weaker" team?

"Try to find the weakest teams and bet against them. Put a little differently, find big mismatches and bet against the weaker teams."


I sure do. When a team is favored by let's say 50 points they can probably win by much more than that if they try the whole game and keep the top players in. Sometimes the coach will indicate his intention before game time. An example might be a beginning of the year mismatch where the powerhouse is starting a new quarterback and the coach says that he intends to give him as many snaps as possible. Does this mean that he will keep the first team in there with him? If it does, you may have a good bet.

and bet on them. The average joe has a tendency to magnify in his mind how bad a team is beyond how bad they actually are. Case in point: the Detroit Lions. As 35-0 kickings go, they actually played OK. Granted defensive return yards are ignored, but I think they were less than 100 yards behind St Louis in total O. Plus Minnesota hadn't scored more than 20 points all year or so. So there was no way Detroit should be a double-digit dog against them, Dennis Green's evangelizing notwithstanding.


JG

standard handicapping maxims such as: 1.do not ask a bad team to win for you, tend to obscure the central fact...there is someone betting them rags....the bookie..and depending where you are at in the season...betting det as a dd dog when minn really is also a sad team...just has to have some value...regardless of individual outcome here...my numbers indicate these are very strong bets...and difficult to make...jmho...gl

receiver does not have the common sesne to get out of bounds at the end of a g with no timeouts....it is hard to bet these morons...gl

I rarely bet on or against the very weakest teams. These teams have some upside as often things can't get any worse. However they are wildly unpredictable because they get to being bad by making costly mistakes. How many of these mistakes they will make in a given game is hard to say. Further games with very big numbers (over 30) are really difficult to handicap since there are way too many factors involved that you just can't know for sure such as how many points the coach thinks is enough, how much he wants to play players the type that Mason mentioned, how much the losing team's coach wants to get in subs. This last factor is usually the most important. Subs for Nebraska are damn good players, but subs for teams like N Illinois or New Mexico State are quite a drop off below the quality of the starters. Good programs always have top talent on deck, the bad teams just get talent as it comes and they are all playing right away. They don't wait their turn to play like they do in the top programs. If the backups play for the losing teams, they are going to get crushed bad. If the starters are left out there they can usually stem the bleeding once the winning team starts bringing in its subs.