77 against short stack allin

[hhboy77]

***** Hand History for Game 1388484338 *****
200/400 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 8396129) - Tue Jan 04 04:50:30 EST 2005
Table Table 11650 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: HERO (1301)
Seat 2: nutty_buddy (6589)
Seat 9: RabbitCam (575)
Seat 10: DMoore78 (1535)
HERO posts small blind (100)
nutty_buddy posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 7h, 7s ]
RabbitCam raises (575) to 575
RabbitCam is all-In.
DMoore78 folds.
HERO raises (1201) to 1301
HERO is all-In.
nutty_buddy folds.
Creating Main Pot with $1350 with RabbitCam
Creating Side Pot 1 with $726 with HERO

RabbitCam hadn't been particularly aggressive through the tournament and had allowed him to get pretty short through blinds.

Is this an automatic reraise allin?

[Marcotte]

I think this is close, but I think it's a fold. If your read is correct, then you're probably a coin-flip at best, and possibly dominated. (There is also a small chance that he has a lower pp). You have about 6.5 BBs to 2nd places 7.5 BBs. I think you fold (leaving you w/ 1200 vs 875 & 1300) and steal blinds later. If you double up the short stack, he has 1350 and you have 575, and 2nd has 1300. Now you are fighting to get ITM.

If you call and win, you are in 2nd with stacks of ~6600, ~2075 and ~1325. 1st place is still very difficult to get, and you aren't guarenteed 2nd.

Risk/reward ratio not good. I vote fold.

(Caveat: $10 player with less than 200 SNGs logged, though my ROI is positive (not huge))

[Jman28]

If you don't think he's likely to make this move with A5o or K6s, then I'd fold. There's a chance the big stack comes in behind you and you're usually in a coin toss situation, sometimes far worse.

I think this is close, and I don't think the raise was that bad. Certainly not an auto-push in my opinion.

-Jman28

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Is this an automatic reraise allin?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

The governing fundamental concept behind early stage decisions is survival. But late stage decisions are all about winning.

Normally if the short stack pushes against the big stack's BB on the bubble, you can safely pass and let the BB do his job. But this dude's got too many chips in the BB and you need some of them. It's appropriate to play against the short stack here because his range of raising hands is so large, and you don't mind if the BB calls because you need to race him eventually. If he calls you only need to beat one of them to finish in the money, and if you double through the BB, you are in good shape to win the thing. If the BB folds and you lose the race against the all-in short stack, just push again on the next hand and if you win that one you're back in OK shape anyways.

Irieguy

PS- This is a bone for Unarmed. I normally wouldn't discuss this.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
You have about 6.5 BBs to 2nd places 7.5 BBs

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe the post said that blinds were 200/400, so hero only has 3xbb after posting SB.

My first instict was insta-push, but the more I think about it, the more I think folding may be in order.

Rabbitcam is desperate at about 1.25xBB and will have to push pretty much if he holds at least one broadway card or any connectors. BB will have to call the extra 125 and I'd say hes about 50/50 to win. If BB wins, your ITM. If BB loses, your still not smallest stack and the blinds have to go through the other small stacks first.

I think I might try and do a little statistical analysis on this one. But sometime later today.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls you only need to beat one of them to finish in the money,

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't even think about that....that pretty much cinches it and u saved me some time on statistical analysis. That's why your the king Irie.

On the bright side...my first instinct was right /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Gramps]

Given all the factors present in this hand, yes it's a reraise all-in (only "automatic" because of the variables present in this particular hand). I would argue that folding would be a very bad play here.

First of all, you have 100 committed already in front of you, so you get a 100 chip discount on the all-in. Second, the times the BB folds (which should be the vast majority of the time), you get an extra 200 chips in the pot, giving you a juicy overlay when it's you and UTG HU. Third, the short stack is down to <3 BB with the blinds coming up on the next two hands, so even if he's been playing very tight up to that point, he could be pushing a very wide range of hands here - probably one that 77 is at the very least a coinflip against. Fourth, even if you push and UTG wins, you still have about 4 BB and the button/UTG hands coming up where you still have fold equity, and can steal to replenish your stack/maintain fold equity.

But the fifth and biggest reason why you make this play is that even if BB decides to jump in here (which normally is what you'd be scared of happening here), UTG has to beat you and BB, and you have to lose to BB for you to finish 4th. Normally, you tighten up a little in a spot like this for fear that the BB/big stack may jump in the hand and make things difficult for you (but where you'd definitely play if you knew 100% BB would fold). But that's not so bad on the bubble here, because you have UTG outstacked, so most of the time that BB does call (which won't happen too often anyhow), you're going to finsih 3rd/end up with the same # of chips you started the hand with (when UTG wins, but you beat BB), at worst.

Most of the time that you push, it will be 475 to win 1350 (close to 2:1 on your chips), and you will be a slight favorite against the range of hands UTG is pushing. And of the few times BB jumps in, you're probably only about 1/6 (roughly - depending on how 77 compares against UTG's/BB's ranges of hands) to come in 4th right there.

Easy push.

[Marcotte]

Irie: what range of hands does this continue to be an auto-all in? 44? 22? What about KQ or KJ?

There are some situations in SNGs (usually early on) where we want to avoid close gambles, even when we are pretty sure we have a slight advantage. But this isn't one of them, right? My question is, why isn't it? Is it because you have UTG covered? Or is this not seen as a close gamble? (But how can it not be - the read on UTG is tight-passive, so I think he has 2 overs >80% of the time).

My bubble play is weak, so I'm looking for any way to improve. This seems like a very good situation to analyze.

[Irieguy]

Even a tight-passive player is going to start getting anxious with 500 chips and the blinds 100/200. He's certainly pushing with any pair, and any ace here... and most players would be pushing with a lot more than that. I'm sure he's probably pushing with KQ and KJ, JQ and JT suited... and who knows what else. If you've labeled this guy as "tight," he's probably been looking at rags all game and he doesn't want to get blinded out.

You think he has 2 overs >80% of the time? No way.

22-66: 30 combos
A-6 and below: 80 combos

vs.

K-Q/J/T: 48 combos
QJ/JTs: 8 combos
A-8 and above: 96 combos
Overpair: 42 combos.

So, you're ahead well over a third of the time... and I think we're leaving out a few hands that he's likely to push with that you are ahead of.

But again, that's only a part of the equation with this hand.

Irieguy