The miracle card

[haakee]

Northern California 40-80. Very strong postflop player who's slightly loose preflop (limps with pairs and suited connectors more often than he should) limps UTG. I limp in EMP with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Fishy guy completes his SB (he is loose and passive -- very readable). Mediocre playing prop checks in the BB.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB checks. BB checks. UTG bets, I raise. Fish check-3-bets. He has a ten. SB folds. UTG calls. He has a flush draw, a ten, or there's a small chance he has an ace, but he raises AJ and up here preflop every time. I also presume his read on the small blind is the same as mine. I decide 12:1 is enough to see the turn and throw in another $40.

Turn: A /images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG checks. I check. Fish checks. That's a ten. No doubt.

River: blank. UTG bets. I see zero point in raising, particularly against this guy who will probably fold a ten to my raise. The guy behind will definitely call one, but probably not cold-call with his ten. I call looking for the overcall.

Whatchu think? Comments on any street welcome.

[jogger08152]

I wonder if the fish can count to four. If he can, you're better off raising.

[holdemfan]

Why the check on the turn?

[BarronVangorToth]

Agreed. Bet the turn.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[worm33]

I dont raise the flop here. way ahead or way behind, flush draw isnt going anywhere and kj qj dont have 11-1 so there welcome in the pot too. Plus you can scare him into thinking u have a ten especialy if hes predictable like i think u said he was.

whoops u said strong postflop player. well strong postflop players like to make laydowns too..

[andyfox]

I don't like the flop raise. Relatively small pot, draw-rich, paired board and you have an ace with no kicker. I can see a case for folding rather than raising.

According to twodimes, you win about 13% of the time with that flop against Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif and 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I suppose the backdoor flush draw might make it worthwhile to call the check-raise.

Beginning on the turn, the fish seems to have switched from the small blind to late position. If I was convinced he had a ten and he was a fish, I'd have bet.

[Kaz The Original]

Fold preflop.
Fold the flop.
When you hit your 2 outer, bet it. The fish might raise you.

Btw a3 suited is not enough for me preflop with 1 limper, and a good one at that.

[2ndGoat]

You're sure he has a ten, so you're going to call with 12:1 odds on a worse-than-20:1 shot?

I'm also not real fond of Axs in early/mid position with one limper unless you've got a considerably loose/passive game.

2ndGoat