.50/1 to 15/30 in 60,000 Hand Challenge

[spydog]

I am embarking on a new challenge to go from .50/1 to 15/30 in 60,000 hands.

My background: I started playing poker 1 year ago and logged 120,000 hands in 2004. I started with .50/1 and worked my way up to 5/10 6-max on Party. Over that time, my win rate is 2.77 BB/100 across all levels and my bankroll stands at 15k. I have been very conservative when moving up levels, even though my roll could easily support 10/20 6-max, and probably 15/30 full. Toward the end of the year, after moving to Europe from the US and not finding a job, I started playing much more poker. Currently, I have the ability to play 30k+ hand per month. Toward the end of 2004, I became somewhat bored with poker and was more easily agitated by bad beats, downswings, etc... So, I took 2 weeks off over the holidays and have just started playing the last 2 days.

Although I am a decent player, I have been gunshy about moving up to the next level. I think the fear of losing a big portion of my roll has a lot to do with it. So, with $300, I decided I would emulate 'having to start over'.

As I said before, I became more agitated with poker in the last few weeks of 2004. I'm not sure if it was burnout or the fact that I was playing higher stakes and the swings were worse monetarily. I think it may have been burnout because I remember playing a $5 (yes, 5$) HU SNG on Stars in December and becoming quite vocal at losing to some moron. $5 is nothing monetarily, but it felt like I just lost a $150 pot on a 2-outer. So, part of this challenge is to see if a bad beat affects me the same at .50/1 as it does at higher levels. Another reason I am doing this is to prove that it is quite easy for a winning player to rebuild a bankroll, if necessary, and that this should relax me as I move up to higher levels. Yet another reason is that I think this will improve my game longterm as I will need to adapt my game quickly to each level. Lately on 3/6, I haven't had the opportunity to play 7 and 8 way pots, so it will be fun as well, which may be the most important reason to try this.

My plan is to move up to the next level when I reach 300BB for that level. If I drop to 300BB of the prior level, then I will drop down and work my way back up.

Here is my anticipate route and estimated winrates:

.50/1: 4BB/100 * 7500 hands = 300BB (plan to 4 table)
1/2 6 max: 3BB/100 * 10000 hands = 300BB (plan to 4 table)
2/4: 2.5BB/100 * 6000 hands = 150BB (plan to 4 table)
3/6: 2BB/100 * 10000 hands = 200BB (plan to 4 table)
5/10 6 max: 2BB/100 * 15000 hands = 300BB (plan to 2/3 table)
10/20 6 max: 2BB/100 * 7500 hands = 150BB (plan to 2 table)

This adds up to 56k hands, but I decided to give myself a 4k hand cushion.

Mr. Variance will certainly paint a different path for me, but hopefully it will be 56k hands or less and only take 2 months.

I plan to post updates as I move up each level or when a downswing takes me down a level. I also plan to evaluate the changes in each level compared to the last time I played that level (ASF, PFR, etc...) to see how much the games have changed, blah blah blah.

Flame away at this 'slightly stupid' challenge or, even better, throw some support to this homey.

[Sponger15SB]

You'll fail.

Sorry.

[jaxmike]

good luck. sounds like a fun thing to try, as long as you dont have a job you should be going to.

[O Doyle Rules]

Since you are properly bankrolled for 15/30 already, why do you need to build the bankroll again?

I would simply say everytime you double your $ 300 jump up to the next level, and if you are as good as your past success indicates, you will be playing 15/30 way before 60k hands. ( I would even skip the .50/1.00 level or maybe even the 1/2 level and jump right to 2/4) Call your challenge from 2/4 to 15/30 in 2 weeks! What you have laid out is just too much damn work and not much fun.

[B00T]

I'll try and make this simple. You're going to bust.

Edit: Oops, should of read the replies. Thumbs up Sponge.

Edit #2: You're challenge makes no sense. Is the challenge to make it to 15/30 or to do it in under 60k hands. If you drop down levels or stall you have no shot at doing it in 60k hands. You have about a 6% chance of doing this on par with your guidelines. Your template for 5/10 6-max is way off par for starters.

[cnfuzzd]

uh, why dont you just take 100BB's and try out the 15/30? You wont like playing .5/1 again, you probably wont succeed, and there is no way this is going to be short-term profitable. If you are that worried about it, take those 100BB's, get a rakeback deal at one of the skins, and take your shot there. I dont understand why you would want to try to get to the 15/30 by starting at the .5/1 if thats what you have already done.

If you now having fun at poker is the issue, then this quest wont solve that problem either.

Good luck though, and post some periodic reports.

peace

john nickle

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]

Edit #2: You're challenge makes no sense. Is the challenge to make it to 15/30 or to do it in under 60k hands. If you drop down levels or stall you have no shot at doing it in 60k hands. You have about a 6% chance of doing this on par with your guidelines. Your template for 5/10 6-max is way off par for starters.

[/ QUOTE ]

The challenge is to get to 15/30 in 60k hands or less. I will quit the challenge when I have reached 15/30 or 60k hands, whichever comes first.

I'm not sure what doesn't make sense about the 5/10 6max template?

Also, dropping down doesn't doom me. Many times, big downswings happen over a small number of hands, so my total hand figure won't be hurt so much. Also, there is nothing to say I won't go on a huge upswing that takes me up a level in half the hands prescribed.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you are properly bankrolled for 15/30 already, why do you need to build the bankroll again?

I would simply say everytime you double your $ 300 jump up to the next level, and if you are as good as your past success indicates, you will be playing 15/30 way before 60k hands. ( I would even skip the .50/1.00 level or maybe even the 1/2 level and jump right to 2/4) Call your challenge from 2/4 to 15/30 in 2 weeks! What you have laid out is just too much damn work and not much fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I want to do this challenge the right way, using bankroll management. And, if I'm playing 7500+ hands per week, I will only be at .50/1 for 1 week, 1/2 for 1 week (more hands because it's SH), and 2/4 for less than a week. So, it's not as time consuming as it seems.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
You wont like playing .5/1 again

[/ QUOTE ]
It's actually quite fun, so far. Plus, I'm playing 1500 hands per day, so it's not like I'll be playing it for months. Hopefully, just a week or so.

[ QUOTE ]
you probably wont succeed

[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't that the point of any challenge? I knew people would be skeptical about success, and that is part of why I am doing this. If it was easy, I wouldn't be doing it.

[ QUOTE ]
and there is no way this is going to be short-term profitable

[/ QUOTE ]

If I make more than $1, that's profit. I have a rakeback deal, so I can actually end up with less than $300 and it will still be profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
I dont understand why you would want to try to get to the 15/30 by starting at the .5/1 if thats what you have already done.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have never played 15/30. I play 5/10 6max and 3/6 full.

[ QUOTE ]
Good luck though, and post some periodic reports.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, and I will.

[greg nice]

i like this challenge a lot more than some of the other crappy things people post.

good luck keep us updated.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
You'll fail.

Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe. Maybe not. Which level looks unattainable?

It's not like I just saw my first episode of the WPT, bought Phil Hellmuth's book, and am starting from scratch. I beat 5/10 6max and 3/6 full for 2BB/100 right now and have 120k hands under my belt. I think that my goals for .50/1, 1/2, and 2/4 are within reason.

[Siingo]

Sounds fun!

I went down and played some .5/1 for 2 days or something and also some days at 1/2 after a hugh downswing one time and I thought it was preaty fun. Well first I had some problem with not stay in a pot when it only cost 50 cent to do it. But after I start to think in BB then it was great and I actually learned something from it... I think you will have fun!

I hope you make it!(especially since so many here think that you wont /images/graemlins/laugh.gif)

Good luck and have fun!

[Trix]

With 300 I would play 1/2 6 till I had 1K, then 3/6 full till I had 2.5K, then 5/10 6 and follow normal br requirements from that point.

I´d drop every time I go below 200 bets at the prior lvl I guess.

gl

[SCfuji]

wow! way to set the bar up HIGH. waaaaaay up high. goodluck, do tell us how you do.

[sthief09]

why waste your time at .5/1? why not just play the highest level you think you can beat and move up like everyone else?